Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urb...

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Published in:Environmental pollution (1987) Vol. 224; pp. 317 - 325
Main Authors: Chen, Kai, Horton, Radley M., Bader, Daniel A., Lesk, Corey, Jiang, Leiwen, Jones, Bryan, Zhou, Lian, Chen, Xiaodong, Bi, Jun, Kinney, Patrick L.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Goddard Space Flight Center Elsevier Ltd 01.05.2017
Elsevier
Subjects:
Acclimatization
Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality
China
China - epidemiology
Climate Change
climate models
Computer Programming And Software
death
dose response
global warming
Heat
Hot Temperature - adverse effects
Humans
Meteorology And Climatology
Models, Theoretical
Mortality
myocardial ischemia
Population Density
population size
Projection
Public Health
respiratory tract diseases
Respiratory Tract Diseases - mortality
stroke
temperature
uncertainty
urban areas
China
Climate change
Projection
Heat
Mortality
ISSN:0269-7491, 1873-6424
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016–2040 and 2041–2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016–2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. [Display omitted] •A warming climate will amplify heat-related cause-specific mortality in Jiangsu.•Nonurban residents are more vulnerable to climate change than urban residents.•Climate models contribute the largest uncertainty in health impact assessment. A warming climate in the next five decades will lead to increased burden of heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in Jiangsu, China, especially in nonurban areas.
Bibliography:GSFC
Goddard Space Flight Center
GSFC-E-DAA-TN39715
ISSN: 0269-7491
Report Number: GSFC-E-DAA-TN39715
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0269-7491
1873-6424
DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.011