Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urb...

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Vydáno v:	Environmental pollution (1987) Ročník 224; s. 317 - 325
Hlavní autoři:	Chen, Kai, Horton, Radley M., Bader, Daniel A., Lesk, Corey, Jiang, Leiwen, Jones, Bryan, Zhou, Lian, Chen, Xiaodong, Bi, Jun, Kinney, Patrick L.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Goddard Space Flight Center Elsevier Ltd 01.05.2017 Elsevier
Témata:	Acclimatization Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality China China - epidemiology Climate Change climate models Computer Programming And Software death dose response global warming Heat Hot Temperature - adverse effects Humans Meteorology And Climatology Models, Theoretical Mortality myocardial ischemia Population Density population size Projection Public Health respiratory tract diseases Respiratory Tract Diseases - mortality stroke temperature uncertainty urban areas China Climate change Projection Heat Mortality
ISSN:	0269-7491, 1873-6424
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Abstract	A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016–2040 and 2041–2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016–2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. [Display omitted] •A warming climate will amplify heat-related cause-specific mortality in Jiangsu.•Nonurban residents are more vulnerable to climate change than urban residents.•Climate models contribute the largest uncertainty in health impact assessment. A warming climate in the next five decades will lead to increased burden of heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in Jiangsu, China, especially in nonurban areas.
AbstractList	A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016–2040 and 2041–2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016–2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016–2040 and 2041–2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016–2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. [Display omitted] •A warming climate will amplify heat-related cause-specific mortality in Jiangsu.•Nonurban residents are more vulnerable to climate change than urban residents.•Climate models contribute the largest uncertainty in health impact assessment. A warming climate in the next five decades will lead to increased burden of heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in Jiangsu, China, especially in nonurban areas.
Audience	PUBLIC
Author	Horton, Radley M. Chen, Xiaodong Zhou, Lian Jones, Bryan Chen, Kai Jiang, Leiwen Kinney, Patrick L. Bi, Jun Bader, Daniel A. Lesk, Corey
AuthorAffiliation	b Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Program in Climate and Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA a State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China f CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch College School of Public Affairs, New York, New York, USA g Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China e National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA d Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Science Shanghai University, Shanghai, China c Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA
AuthorAffiliation_xml	– name: d Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Science Shanghai University, Shanghai, China – name: f CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch College School of Public Affairs, New York, New York, USA – name: g Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China – name: b Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Program in Climate and Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA – name: c Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA – name: e National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA – name: a State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Kai surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Kai organization: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Radley M. surname: Horton fullname: Horton, Radley M. organization: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Daniel A. orcidid: 0000-0002-1327-8381 surname: Bader fullname: Bader, Daniel A. organization: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Corey surname: Lesk fullname: Lesk, Corey organization: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Leiwen surname: Jiang fullname: Jiang, Leiwen organization: Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Science Shanghai University, Shanghai, China – sequence: 6 givenname: Bryan surname: Jones fullname: Jones, Bryan organization: CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch College, New York, NY, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: Lian surname: Zhou fullname: Zhou, Lian organization: Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China – sequence: 8 givenname: Xiaodong surname: Chen fullname: Chen, Xiaodong organization: Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China – sequence: 9 givenname: Jun surname: Bi fullname: Bi, Jun email: jbi@nju.edu.cn organization: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China – sequence: 10 givenname: Patrick L. surname: Kinney fullname: Kinney, Patrick L. email: plk3@cumc.columbia.edu organization: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Program in Climate and Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28237309$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet	A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for...
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SubjectTerms	Acclimatization Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality China China - epidemiology Climate Change climate models Computer Programming And Software death dose response global warming Heat Hot Temperature - adverse effects Humans Meteorology And Climatology Models, Theoretical Mortality myocardial ischemia Population Density population size Projection Public Health respiratory tract diseases Respiratory Tract Diseases - mortality stroke temperature uncertainty urban areas
Title	Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China
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