Local Recruitment in the Greater Flamingo: A New Approach Using Capture- Mark-Recapture Data
Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarrant...
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| Published in: | Ecology (Durham) Vol. 78; no. 5; pp. 1431 - 1445 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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Washington, DC
Ecological Society of America
01.07.1997
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| ISSN: | 0012-9658, 1939-9170 |
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| Abstract | Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture-mark-recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time-reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time (β, the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows on to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike's Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long-lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long-lived species and mention some potential developments. |
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| AbstractList | Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture–mark–recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time‐reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time (β, the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows one to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike’s Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness‐of‐fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long‐lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long‐lived species and mention some potential developments. Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture-mark-recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time-reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time ( beta , the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows one to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike's Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long-lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long-lived species and mention some potential developments. Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture-mark-recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time-reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time (β, the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows on to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike's Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long-lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long-lived species and mention some potential developments. Pradel et al illustrated the use of a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests, with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos in the Camargue in France between 1984 and 1994. |
| Author | Viallefont, Anne Johnson, Alan R. Cézilly, Frank Pradel, Roger Nager, Ruedi G. |
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| Copyright | Copyright 1997 The Ecological Society of America 1997 by the Ecological Society of America 1997 INIST-CNRS Copyright Ecological Society of America Jul 1997 Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License |
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| Keywords | Marine environment Vertebrata Reproduction Capture recapture method Population recruitment Population dynamics Aves Modeling First breeding |
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| References | 1965; 52 1980; 49 1990; 13 1991; 14 1994; 136 1982; 51 1995; 76 1995; 137 1983; 8 1973 1988; 100 1971 1996; 107 1992; 94 1978 1977 1990; 40 1994b.; 96 1974; 45 1996.; 77 1990; 46 1973; 42 1986; 40 1974; 86 1990 1986; 7 1987 1957; 240 1991; 93 1986 1985 1983 1949 1981; 74 1989 1994; 75 1987; 49 1995; 97 1984; 84 1993; 45 1987; 56 1976; 46 1976; 45 1994a.; 17 1977; 48 1988. 1993; 81 1986; 11 1995; 10 1954 1997 1996; 52 1995 1994 1978; 15 1993 1992 1991 1969; 17 1985; 44 1978; 80 1968; 217 1977; 119 1956; 27 1994; 50 1981; 51 1989; 58 1964; 51 1968 1992; 62 1990; 4 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-duncan1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-lebreton2 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-williams1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-austin1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-potts1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-lebreton3 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-jenkin1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-spendelow1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-nelson1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-wooler1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-cezilly7 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-chabrzyk1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-clobert2 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-orians1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-thompson1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-cormack1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-schmitz1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-croxall1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-harris1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-lloyd1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-anderson1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-harrington1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-porter2 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-finney1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-porter1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-mougin1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-cezilly3 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-cezilly2 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-cezilly5 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-charnov1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-cezilly4 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-stearns2 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-cezilly1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-weimerskirch1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-mills1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-reznick1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-zweers1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-jolly1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-coulson1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-coulson2 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-rattiste1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-recher1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-seber1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-green1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-pradel3 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-pradel2 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-gratto1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-bildstein1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-nager1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-forslund1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-serventy1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-barrat1 i0012-9658-78-5-1431-johnson4 |
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| Snippet | Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts... Pradel et al illustrated the use of a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the... |
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| SubjectTerms | Age age-specific breeding probability Animal and plant ecology Animal populations Animal reproduction Animal, plant and microbial ecology Animals Aves Aviculture Biological and medical sciences Birds Brackish Breeding breeding propensity capture–mark–recapture models Cohort effect Demecology Ecological modeling Ecology first reproduction Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Greater Flamingo Life Sciences local recruitment Marine Other Phoenicopterus ruber Phoenicopterus ruber roseus population dynamics probability of reproduction Seniority seniority probability Sexual reproduction Statistical analysis Vertebrata Waterfowl |
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| Title | Local Recruitment in the Greater Flamingo: A New Approach Using Capture- Mark-Recapture Data |
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