Local Recruitment in the Greater Flamingo: A New Approach Using Capture- Mark-Recapture Data

Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarrant...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Ecology (Durham) Jg. 78; H. 5; S. 1431 - 1445
Hauptverfasser:	Pradel, Roger, Johnson, Alan R., Viallefont, Anne, Nager, Ruedi G., Cézilly, Frank
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, DC Ecological Society of America 01.07.1997
Schlagworte:	Age age-specific breeding probability Animal and plant ecology Animal populations Animal reproduction Animal, plant and microbial ecology Animals Aves Aviculture Biological and medical sciences Birds Brackish Breeding breeding propensity capture–mark–recapture models Cohort effect Demecology Ecological modeling Ecology first reproduction Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Greater Flamingo Life Sciences local recruitment Marine Other Phoenicopterus ruber Phoenicopterus ruber roseus population dynamics probability of reproduction Seniority seniority probability Sexual reproduction Statistical analysis Vertebrata Waterfowl Camargue France Europe Marine environment Vertebrata Reproduction Capture recapture method Population recruitment Population dynamics Aves Modeling First breeding
ISSN:	0012-9658, 1939-9170
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Abstract	Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture-mark-recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time-reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time (β, the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows on to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike's Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long-lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long-lived species and mention some potential developments.
AbstractList	Pradel et al illustrated the use of a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests, with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos in the Camargue in France between 1984 and 1994. Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture-mark-recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time-reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time ( beta , the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows one to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike's Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long-lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long-lived species and mention some potential developments. Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture–mark–recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time‐reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time (β, the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows one to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike’s Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness‐of‐fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long‐lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long‐lived species and mention some potential developments. Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture-mark-recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time-reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal has bred. The model considers two essential components, the probability for any breeding individual to reproduce for the first time (β, the probability of first reproduction) and the probability of recapture (p), both conditional on survival. Contrary to previous attempts at modeling recruitment, the present approach does not assume an age at which breeding propensity stabilizes to a maximum value. The flexibility achieved allows the comparison of recruitment among groups within a population and also allows on to consider the effects of environmental variables, as well as interactions between such effects. Practically, the procedure starts from a global model, based upon the a priori knowledge of the biology of the species, and assesses its fit. Then more parsimonious models are selected using Akaike's Information Criterion and likelihood ratio tests. Finally, maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters are obtained with estimates of precision. We used a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the computation of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the method with the study of local recruitment of Greater Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber roseus) in the Camargue (southern France) between 1984 and 1994. We found additive effects of age and year to affect recruitment. Breeding propensity increased with age. Recruitment was noticeably higher in the year following an increase in mortality rate due to a particularly severe winter. Long-lasting effects of this increased mortality on recruitment were observed in the three following years. There was no evidence for an effect of sex or cohort (year of birth) on recruitment. However, sex, as well as time and age, affected recapture rates. We discuss the various advantages and limitations of the model for the study of local recruitment in long-lived species and mention some potential developments.
Author	Viallefont, Anne Johnson, Alan R. Cézilly, Frank Pradel, Roger Nager, Ruedi G.
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Copyright	Copyright 1997 The Ecological Society of America 1997 by the Ecological Society of America 1997 INIST-CNRS Copyright Ecological Society of America Jul 1997 Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
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Keywords	Marine environment Vertebrata Reproduction Capture recapture method Population recruitment Population dynamics Aves Modeling First breeding
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Snippet	Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts... Pradel et al illustrated the use of a modified version of program RELEASE for goodness-of-fit tests, and program SURGE for iterative model fitting and the...
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SubjectTerms	Age age-specific breeding probability Animal and plant ecology Animal populations Animal reproduction Animal, plant and microbial ecology Animals Aves Aviculture Biological and medical sciences Birds Brackish Breeding breeding propensity capture–mark–recapture models Cohort effect Demecology Ecological modeling Ecology first reproduction Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Greater Flamingo Life Sciences local recruitment Marine Other Phoenicopterus ruber Phoenicopterus ruber roseus population dynamics probability of reproduction Seniority seniority probability Sexual reproduction Statistical analysis Vertebrata Waterfowl
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Title	Local Recruitment in the Greater Flamingo: A New Approach Using Capture- Mark-Recapture Data
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