Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...

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Vydáno v:	Nature climate change Ročník 6; číslo 12; s. 1130 - 1136
Hlavní autoři:	Liu, Bing, Asseng, Senthold, Muller, Christoph, Ewart, Frank, Elliott, Joshua, Lobell, David B., Martre, Pierre, Ruane, Alex C., Wallach, Daniel, Jones, James W., Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Deryng, Delphine
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Goddard Space Flight Center Nature Publishing Group UK 01.12.2016 Nature Publishing Group
Témata:	704/106/694/2739 706/1143 Agricultural production Agricultural sciences Alterra - Climate change and adaptive land and water management Alterra - Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement Carbon dioxide China climate Climate Change Climate Change and Adaptive Land and Water Management Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Computer Programming And Software Corn Crop yield Earth Resources And Remote Sensing Earth System Science Environment Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice Environmental Sciences Estimates Food security France Global Changes Global temperatures global warming grain yield India Klimaatverandering Klimaatverandering en adaptief land- en watermanagement Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen Life Sciences Methods model uncertainty PE&RC Plant Production Systems Plantaardige Productiesystemen prediction Russia Simulation Temperature Triticum aestivum United States Vegetal Biology Wheat WIMEK ANE, France INW, Russia USA China, People's Rep India France United States China Russia Climate Impacts Impact Method Cmparison Wheat Yield Temperature Global Warming Food Security sécurité alimentaire incertitude simulation statistical regression modèle de récolte réchauffement climatique uncertainty impact sur le rendement changement climatique comparaison de modèles global change wheat régression statistique température blé
ISSN:	1758-678X, 1758-6798
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Shrnutí:	The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Bibliografie:	GSFC Report Number: GSFC-E-DAA-TN35739 GSFC-E-DAA-TN35739 E-ISSN: 1758-6798 Goddard Space Flight Center ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23
ISSN:	1758-678X 1758-6798
DOI:	10.1038/nclimate3115