The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, po...

Celý popis

Uloženo v:

Podrobná bibliografie
Vydáno v:	Environmental research letters Ročník 17; číslo 2; s. 24025 - 24036
Hlavní autoři:	Soultan, Alaaeldin, Pavón-Jordán, Diego, Bradter, Ute, Sandercock, Brett K, Hochachka, Wesley M, Johnston, Alison, Brommer, Jon, Gaget, Elie, Keller, Verena, Knaus, Peter, Aghababyan, Karen, Maxhuni, Qenan, Vintchevski, Alexandre, Nagy, Károly, Raudonikis, Liutauras, Balmer, Dawn, Noble, David, Leitão, Domingos, Øien, Ingar Jostein, Shimmings, Paul, Sultanov, Elchin, Caffrey, Brian, Boyla, Kerem, Radišić, Dimitrije, Lindström, Åke, Velevski, Metodija, Pladevall, Clara, Brotons, Lluís, Karel, Šťastný, Rajković, Draženko Z, Chodkiewicz, Tomasz, Wilk, Tomasz, Szép, Tibor, van Turnhout, Chris, Foppen, Ruud, Burfield, Ian, Vikstrøm, Thomas, Mazal, Vlatka Dumbović, Eaton, Mark, Vorisek, Petr, Lehikoinen, Aleksi, Herrando, Sergi, Kuzmenko, Tatiana, Bauer, Hans-Günther, Kalyakin, Mikhail V, Voltzit, Olga V, Sjeničić, Jovica, Pärt, Tomas
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Bristol IOP Publishing 01.02.2022
Témata:	Animal breeding Aquatic birds Birds Breeding breeding distributions Centroids Climate change Ecology Ekologi Environmental changes Environmental restoration European Breeding Bird Atlas Geographical distribution Global warming Land use land-use change Population decline Population number Predictions Species species distribution models Wetlands Europe
ISSN:	1748-9326, 1748-9326
On-line přístup:	Získat plný text
Tagy:	Přidat tag Žádné tagy, Buďte první, kdo vytvoří štítek k tomuto záznamu!

Abstract	Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr −1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr −1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
AbstractList	Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr −1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr −1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future. Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future. Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr ^−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr ^−1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future. Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr(-1) towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr(-1). Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
Author	Nagy, Károly Pladevall, Clara Maxhuni, Qenan Raudonikis, Liutauras Knaus, Peter Aghababyan, Karen Brotons, Lluís Øien, Ingar Jostein Rajković, Draženko Z Vintchevski, Alexandre Radišić, Dimitrije van Turnhout, Chris Herrando, Sergi Voltzit, Olga V Lindström, Åke Johnston, Alison Burfield, Ian Mazal, Vlatka Dumbović Soultan, Alaaeldin Keller, Verena Balmer, Dawn Pavón-Jordán, Diego Szép, Tibor Sandercock, Brett K Gaget, Elie Karel, Šťastný Wilk, Tomasz Vorisek, Petr Chodkiewicz, Tomasz Lehikoinen, Aleksi Kuzmenko, Tatiana Kalyakin, Mikhail V Shimmings, Paul Foppen, Ruud Vikstrøm, Thomas Sjeničić, Jovica Brommer, Jon Noble, David Boyla, Kerem Bradter, Ute Caffrey, Brian Sultanov, Elchin Leitão, Domingos Velevski, Metodija Bauer, Hans-Günther Pärt, Tomas Hochachka, Wesley M Eaton, Mark
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Alaaeldin orcidid: 0000-0002-3976-2657 surname: Soultan fullname: Soultan, Alaaeldin organization: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Ecology, Uppsala, Sweden – sequence: 2 givenname: Diego orcidid: 0000-0001-5105-3426 surname: Pavón-Jordán fullname: Pavón-Jordán, Diego organization: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) Department of Terrestrial Ecology, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, N-7485 Trondheim, Norway – sequence: 3 givenname: Ute orcidid: 0000-0001-5687-1233 surname: Bradter fullname: Bradter, Ute organization: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) Department of Terrestrial Ecology, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, N-7485 Trondheim, Norway – sequence: 4 givenname: Brett K orcidid: 0000-0002-9240-0268 surname: Sandercock fullname: Sandercock, Brett K organization: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) Department of Terrestrial Ecology, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, N-7485 Trondheim, Norway – sequence: 5 givenname: Wesley M surname: Hochachka fullname: Hochachka, Wesley M organization: Cornell University Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY 14850, United States of America – sequence: 6 givenname: Alison surname: Johnston fullname: Johnston, Alison organization: University of Cambridge Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, CB2 3QZ Cambridge, United Kingdom – sequence: 7 givenname: Jon surname: Brommer fullname: Brommer, Jon organization: University of Turku Department of Biology, 20500 Turku, Finland – sequence: 8 givenname: Elie orcidid: 0000-0003-3462-9686 surname: Gaget fullname: Gaget, Elie organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 9 givenname: Verena surname: Keller fullname: Keller, Verena organization: Swiss Ornithological Institute , Sempach, Switzerland – sequence: 10 givenname: Peter orcidid: 0000-0001-8165-2139 surname: Knaus fullname: Knaus, Peter organization: Swiss Ornithological Institute , Sempach, Switzerland – sequence: 11 givenname: Karen surname: Aghababyan fullname: Aghababyan, Karen organization: BirdLinks Armenia NGO , 87b Dimitrov, apt 14, Yerevan 0020, Armenia – sequence: 12 givenname: Qenan surname: Maxhuni fullname: Maxhuni, Qenan organization: Kosovo Institute for Nature Protection , Str. L. Haradinaj, ex-Rilindja, 10000 Prishtine, Kosovo – sequence: 13 givenname: Alexandre surname: Vintchevski fullname: Vintchevski, Alexandre organization: CEO, APB-BirdLife Belarus , Minsk, Belarus – sequence: 14 givenname: Károly surname: Nagy fullname: Nagy, Károly organization: MME BirdLife Hungary , PO. Box 16, H-4402 Nyiregyháza, Hungary – sequence: 15 givenname: Liutauras surname: Raudonikis fullname: Raudonikis, Liutauras organization: BirdLife Lithuania , Naugarduko g. 47-3, LT-03208 Vilnius, Lietuva – sequence: 16 givenname: Dawn surname: Balmer fullname: Balmer, Dawn organization: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford , IP24 2LD Norfolk, United Kingdom – sequence: 17 givenname: David surname: Noble fullname: Noble, David organization: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford , IP24 2LD Norfolk, United Kingdom – sequence: 18 givenname: Domingos surname: Leitão fullname: Leitão, Domingos organization: SPEA—Portuguese Society for the Study of Birds , Lisboa, Portugal – sequence: 19 givenname: Ingar Jostein orcidid: 0000-0003-0986-2726 surname: Øien fullname: Øien, Ingar Jostein organization: NOF-BirdLife Norway , Sandgata 30 B, NO-7012 Trondheim, Norway – sequence: 20 givenname: Paul surname: Shimmings fullname: Shimmings, Paul organization: Norsk Ornitologisk Forening/BirdLife Norway , Sandgata 16 B, NO 7012 Trondheim, Norway – sequence: 21 givenname: Elchin surname: Sultanov fullname: Sultanov, Elchin organization: Azerbaijan Ornithological Society , Baku, Azerbaijan Republic – sequence: 22 givenname: Brian surname: Caffrey fullname: Caffrey, Brian organization: BirdWatch Ireland , Wicklow, Ireland – sequence: 23 givenname: Kerem surname: Boyla fullname: Boyla, Kerem organization: eBird National Editor , Istanbul, Turkey – sequence: 24 givenname: Dimitrije orcidid: 0000-0003-2716-9829 surname: Radišić fullname: Radišić, Dimitrije organization: University of Novi Sad Department of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Sciences, Novi Sad, Serbia – sequence: 25 givenname: Åke surname: Lindström fullname: Lindström, Åke organization: Lund University Department of Biology, Biodiversity unit, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden – sequence: 26 givenname: Metodija surname: Velevski fullname: Velevski, Metodija organization: Macedonian Ecological Society , Skopje, North Macedonia – sequence: 27 givenname: Clara surname: Pladevall fullname: Pladevall, Clara organization: Andorra Research and Innovation , Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra – sequence: 28 givenname: Lluís surname: Brotons fullname: Brotons, Lluís organization: CSIC , 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain – sequence: 29 givenname: Šťastný surname: Karel fullname: Karel, Šťastný organization: Czech University of Life Sciences Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic – sequence: 30 givenname: Draženko Z orcidid: 0000-0002-2626-0076 surname: Rajković fullname: Rajković, Draženko Z organization: Center for Biodiversity Research , 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia – sequence: 31 givenname: Tomasz surname: Chodkiewicz fullname: Chodkiewicz, Tomasz organization: Polish Society for the Protection of Birds (OTOP) , ul. Odrowaza 24, 05-270 Marki, Poland – sequence: 32 givenname: Tomasz surname: Wilk fullname: Wilk, Tomasz organization: Polish Society for the Protection of Birds (OTOP) , Kraków, Poland – sequence: 33 givenname: Tibor surname: Szép fullname: Szép, Tibor organization: Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Nyíregyháza , Nyíregyháza, Hungary – sequence: 34 givenname: Chris surname: van Turnhout fullname: van Turnhout, Chris organization: Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Department of Animal Ecology & Ecophysiology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands – sequence: 35 givenname: Ruud surname: Foppen fullname: Foppen, Ruud organization: Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Department of Animal Ecology & Ecophysiology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands – sequence: 36 givenname: Ian surname: Burfield fullname: Burfield, Ian organization: BirdLife International , Cambridge, United Kingdom – sequence: 37 givenname: Thomas surname: Vikstrøm fullname: Vikstrøm, Thomas organization: BirdLife , Copenhagen, Denmark – sequence: 38 givenname: Vlatka Dumbović surname: Mazal fullname: Mazal, Vlatka Dumbović organization: Institute for Environment and Nature , Zagreb, Croatia – sequence: 39 givenname: Mark surname: Eaton fullname: Eaton, Mark organization: European Bird Census Council , Newcastle, United Kingdom – sequence: 40 givenname: Petr surname: Vorisek fullname: Vorisek, Petr organization: Czech Society for Ornithology , Prague, Czech Republic – sequence: 41 givenname: Aleksi surname: Lehikoinen fullname: Lehikoinen, Aleksi organization: The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History , P.O. Box 17, Helsinki, Finland – sequence: 42 givenname: Sergi surname: Herrando fullname: Herrando, Sergi organization: Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona , Pl. Leonardo da Vinci 4-5, 08019 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain – sequence: 43 givenname: Tatiana surname: Kuzmenko fullname: Kuzmenko, Tatiana organization: Ukrainian Society for the Protection of Birds , Kiev, Ukraine – sequence: 44 givenname: Hans-Günther surname: Bauer fullname: Bauer, Hans-Günther organization: Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior , 78315 Radolfzell, Germany – sequence: 45 givenname: Mikhail V surname: Kalyakin fullname: Kalyakin, Mikhail V organization: Zoological museum of the Lomonosov Moscow State University , Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow 125009, Russia – sequence: 46 givenname: Olga V surname: Voltzit fullname: Voltzit, Olga V organization: Zoological museum of the Lomonosov Moscow State University , Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow 125009, Russia – sequence: 47 givenname: Jovica surname: Sjeničić fullname: Sjeničić, Jovica organization: Society for Research and Protection of Biodiversity , Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina – sequence: 48 givenname: Tomas orcidid: 0000-0001-7388-6672 surname: Pärt fullname: Pärt, Tomas organization: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Department of Ecology, Uppsala, Sweden
BackLink	https://res.slu.se/id/publ/116434$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index (Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet)
BookMark	eNp9kUtv1TAQhSNUJNrCnqUlFmy4rRM_kixRVaBSJTZlbY3t8a2vgh1spxX_vg7hURCwGmt0zjczPifNUYgBm-ZlS89aOgznbc-H3cg6eQ6Go8YnzfHP1tGj97PmJOcDpYKLfjhuws0tEreUJSGxPpfk9VJ8DCQ6co9lgmCJ9slmohOi9WFPfCCXS4ozkjuYvIWClsAefMiFRJ0x3dWGuYWwx7yKH2OfN08dTBlffK-nzad3lzcXH3bXH99fXby93hnR92UnmKVsHKRpQffgNHZgeqdbKyljXDIwRpixHaUwwmlLLcixG6mW4HrbtpKdNlcb10Y4qDn5z5C-qghefWvEtFeQijcTqq7CR8lcrR1vewGWSWH54AC5HS2rrLONle9xXvRvtDwtGtJaVEZVJ3PGq-HVZphT_LJgLuoQlxTqvaqTTAhedx2qSm4qk2LOCZ0yvsD6SSWBn1RL1RqsWpNTa3JqC7Ya6R_GHxv9x_J6s_g4_1oGU53Sq07RjtNOqNm6qnzzF-U_wQ8pNcbn
CODEN	ERLNAL
CitedBy_id	crossref_primary_10_1016_j_biocon_2023_109939 crossref_primary_10_3390_birds4020015 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecolind_2023_111240 crossref_primary_10_3389_fmars_2022_923205 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12983_023_00496_x crossref_primary_10_1007_s10393_025_01727_9 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10344_023_01697_9 crossref_primary_10_1111_ddi_13834 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pclm_0000345 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecss_2024_109013 crossref_primary_10_1080_20442041_2025_2488655 crossref_primary_10_1126_science_adp4461 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecoinf_2023_102127 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13253_022_00498_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_prevetmed_2024_106187 crossref_primary_10_3389_fmars_2022_1007442 crossref_primary_10_1111_brv_13004 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecolind_2025_113833 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_indic_2025_100858
Cites_doi	10.1038/nclimate1688 10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157 10.2307/1939555 10.1186/s40665-016-0020-5 10.1111/jbi.12058 10.1007/s10531-016-1053-6 10.1098/rspb.2018.0792 10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108549 10.1038/nature25139 10.1002/ece3.1411 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01116.x 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.10.004 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2011.20008.x 10.1038/nclimate1347 10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.11.004 10.1078/1617-1381-00036 10.1007/s12210-013-0258-9 10.1088/1748-9326/abe95e 10.1016/j.agee.2020.107001 10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6 10.1371/journal.pone.0135350 10.1111/ecog.01736 10.1016/j.biocon.2007.10.013 10.1111/ddi.12855 10.1186/s40657-018-0106-9 10.1111/gcb.12823 10.1111/ele.12110 10.1371/journal.pone.0004678 10.1017/S0376892997000088 10.1371/journal.pone.0112251 10.1111/ddi.12209 10.1126/science.1257484 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109084 10.4404/hystrix-27.1-11867 10.1086/214336 10.1371/journal.pone.0193085 10.1111/brv.12045 10.16904/envidat.159 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.031 10.1371/journal.pone.0001439 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01878.x 10.1111/gcb.13683 10.34080/os.v25.22544 10.3390/d7040342 10.1111/1365-2664.13106 10.1371/journal.pone.0043648 10.1371/journal.pone.0241771.g001 10.1002/ece3.497 10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020 10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00388-X 10.1017/S0959270908000439 10.1016/S0261-2194(01)00029-1 10.1016/j.pecon.2020.03.001 10.1016/j.biocon.2008.03.007 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02552.x 10.1111/gcb.13274 10.1111/cobi.12938 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x 10.1038/sdata.2017.122 10.1556/ComEc.15.2014.2.2 10.1111/gcb.12042 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03823.x 10.1098/rspb.2008.0878 10.1098/rspb.2010.1877 10.1111/jbi.13395 10.1038/20335 10.1111/cobi.13877 10.1073/pnas.0813294106 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.028 10.1111/gcb.12573 10.1038/21181 10.1111/geb.12308 10.1371/journal.pone.0140486 10.1007/s10336-015-1223-4 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00609.x 10.1038/srep41391 10.1007/s10531-013-0488-2
ContentType	Journal Article
Copyright	2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Copyright_xml	– notice: 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd – notice: 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
CorporateAuthor	Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
CorporateAuthor_xml	– name: Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
DBID	O3W TSCCA AAYXX CITATION 8FE 8FG ABJCF ABUWG AEUYN AFKRA ATCPS AZQEC BENPR BGLVJ BHPHI CCPQU DWQXO GNUQQ HCIFZ L6V M7S PATMY PHGZM PHGZT PIMPY PKEHL PQEST PQGLB PQQKQ PQUKI PTHSS PYCSY ADTPV AOWAS D8T ZZAVC DOA
DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe
DatabaseName	Institute of Physics Open Access Journal Titles IOPscience (Open Access) CrossRef ProQuest SciTech Collection ProQuest Technology Collection Materials Science & Engineering Collection ProQuest Central (Alumni) ProQuest One Sustainability ProQuest Central UK/Ireland Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Essentials ProQuest Central Technology collection Natural Science Collection ProQuest One ProQuest Central ProQuest Central Student SciTech Premium Collection ProQuest Engineering Collection Engineering Database Environmental Science Database ProQuest Central Premium ProQuest One Academic (New) Publicly Available Content (ProQuest) ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE) ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences ProQuest One Academic (retired) ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition Engineering collection Environmental Science Collection SwePub SwePub Articles SWEPUB Freely available online SwePub Articles full text DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
DatabaseTitle	CrossRef Publicly Available Content Database ProQuest Central Student Technology Collection ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) ProQuest Central Essentials ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) SciTech Premium Collection ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Central ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences ProQuest One Sustainability ProQuest Engineering Collection Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central Korea Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central (New) Engineering Collection Engineering Database ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition ProQuest Technology Collection ProQuest SciTech Collection Environmental Science Collection ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition Materials Science & Engineering Collection Environmental Science Database ProQuest One Academic ProQuest One Academic (New)
DatabaseTitleList	CrossRef Publicly Available Content Database
Database_xml	– sequence: 1 dbid: DOA name: DOAJ Open Access Full Text url: https://www.doaj.org/ sourceTypes: Open Website – sequence: 2 dbid: O3W name: Institute of Physics Open Access Journal Titles url: http://iopscience.iop.org/ sourceTypes: Enrichment Source Publisher – sequence: 3 dbid: PIMPY name: ProQuest Publicly Available Content url: http://search.proquest.com/publiccontent sourceTypes: Aggregation Database
DeliveryMethod	fulltext_linktorsrc
Discipline	Environmental Sciences Ecology
EISSN	1748-9326
ExternalDocumentID	oai_doaj_org_article_2e2a963f2e224175ad365d48fae4d9d3 oai_slubar_slu_se_116434 10_1088_1748_9326_ac4ebe erlac4ebe
GeographicLocations	Europe
GeographicLocations_xml	– name: Europe
GrantInformation_xml	– fundername: BiodivScen ERA ‐ Net COFUND program grantid: 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA
GroupedDBID	1JI 29G 2WC 5B3 5GY 5PX 5VS 7.Q AAFWJ AAHBH AAJKP ABHWH ABJCF ACAFW ACGFO ACHIP ADBBV AEFHF AEJGL AENEX AFKRA AFPKN AFYNE AIYBF AKPSB ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS ASPBG ATCPS ATQHT AVWKF AZFZN BCNDV BENPR BGLVJ BHPHI CBCFC CCPQU CEBXE CJUJL CRLBU CS3 DU5 E3Z EBS EDWGO EQZZN GROUPED_DOAJ GX1 HCIFZ HH5 IJHAN IOP IZVLO KNG KQ8 LAP M45 M48 M7S M~E N5L N9A O3W OK1 P2P PATMY PIMPY PJBAE PTHSS PYCSY RIN RNS RO9 SY9 T37 TR2 TSCCA W28 ~02 AAYXX AEINN AEUYN AFFHD CITATION OVT PHGZM PHGZT PQGLB 8FE 8FG ABUWG AZQEC DWQXO GNUQQ L6V PKEHL PQEST PQQKQ PQUKI 02O 1WK 4.4 AALHV ACARI ADTPV AERVB AGQPQ AHSEE AOWAS ARNYC BBWZM C1A D8T EJD FEDTE HVGLF JCGBZ NT- Q02 S3P ZZAVC
ID	FETCH-LOGICAL-c577t-53d03986c1ab7afbe2ac7fb1d6033463acc5c91965c5fbd0da69290b6af7d1163
IEDL.DBID	DOA
ISICitedReferencesCount	24
ISICitedReferencesURI	http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=000753626800001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D
ISSN	1748-9326
IngestDate	Tue Oct 14 19:08:47 EDT 2025 Tue Nov 04 17:20:29 EST 2025 Wed Aug 13 10:49:19 EDT 2025 Sat Nov 29 06:17:00 EST 2025 Tue Nov 18 21:56:22 EST 2025 Wed Aug 21 03:32:35 EDT 2024 Tue Feb 15 23:00:50 EST 2022
IsDoiOpenAccess	true
IsOpenAccess	true
IsPeerReviewed	true
IsScholarly	true
Issue	2
Language	English
License	Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
LinkModel	DirectLink
MergedId	FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c577t-53d03986c1ab7afbe2ac7fb1d6033463acc5c91965c5fbd0da69290b6af7d1163
Notes	ERL-112571.R1 ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14
ORCID	0000-0003-3462-9686 0000-0003-0986-2726 0000-0002-9240-0268 0000-0003-2716-9829 0000-0001-8165-2139 0000-0001-7388-6672 0000-0001-5105-3426 0000-0001-5687-1233 0000-0002-2626-0076 0000-0002-3976-2657
OpenAccessLink	https://doaj.org/article/2e2a963f2e224175ad365d48fae4d9d3
PQID	2635549298
PQPubID	4998671
PageCount	12
ParticipantIDs	doaj_primary_oai_doaj_org_article_2e2a963f2e224175ad365d48fae4d9d3 proquest_journals_2635549298 swepub_primary_oai_slubar_slu_se_116434 crossref_citationtrail_10_1088_1748_9326_ac4ebe crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac4ebe iop_journals_10_1088_1748_9326_ac4ebe
PublicationCentury	2000
PublicationDate	2022-02-01
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD	2022-02-01
PublicationDate_xml	– month: 02 year: 2022 text: 2022-02-01 day: 01
PublicationDecade	2020
PublicationPlace	Bristol
PublicationPlace_xml	– name: Bristol
PublicationTitle	Environmental research letters
PublicationTitleAbbrev	ERL
PublicationTitleAlternate	Environ. Res. Lett
PublicationYear	2022
Publisher	IOP Publishing
Publisher_xml	– name: IOP Publishing
References	Brommer (erlac4ebebib9) 2004; 41 Virkkala (erlac4ebebib84) 2008; 141 Barbet-Massin (erlac4ebebib6) 2018; 13 Jetz (erlac4ebebib39) 2007; 5 Williams (erlac4ebebib87) 2018; 45 Montràs-Janer (erlac4ebebib56) 2020; 300 Pavón-Jordán (erlac4ebebib64) 2020; 246 Stockwell (erlac4ebebib76) 2002; 148 Newbold (erlac4ebebib59) 2018; 285 Kačergytė (erlac4ebebib41) 2021; 257 Lee (erlac4ebebib49) 2011; 278 Tayleur (erlac4ebebib78) 2015; 24 Thuiller (erlac4ebebib81) 2016 Gaget (erlac4ebebib21) 2021 Huntley (erlac4ebebib35) 2007 Musilová (erlac4ebebib57) 2018; 228 Musilová (erlac4ebebib58) 2015; 156 Hurtt (erlac4ebebib36) 2019 Devictor (erlac4ebebib16) 2012; 2 Parmesan (erlac4ebebib62) 1999; 399 Bui (erlac4ebebib12) 2012 Gregory (erlac4ebebib25) 2009; 4 Huang (erlac4ebebib33) 2017; 23 Skov (erlac4ebebib73) 2004; 27 Furfey (erlac4ebebib20) 1927; 33 Hagemeijer (erlac4ebebib26) 1997 Langham (erlac4ebebib48) 2015; 10 Carroll (erlac4ebebib13) 2015; 10 Fielding (erlac4ebebib18) 1997; 24 Kirby (erlac4ebebib45) 2008; 18 Pievani (erlac4ebebib65) 2014; 25 Lehikoinen (erlac4ebebib50) 2017; 7 Hitch (erlac4ebebib31) 2007; 21 Wang (erlac4ebebib86) 2018; 9 Williamson (erlac4ebebib88) 2013; 22 Andriamasimanana (erlac4ebebib3) 2013; 3 Teo (erlac4ebebib79) 2001; 20 Sebastián-González (erlac4ebebib72) 2016; 39 (erlac4ebebib8) 2021 Brun (erlac4ebebib11) 2016; 22 Pachauri (erlac4ebebib38) 2014 Polaina (erlac4ebebib66) 2021; 16 Zuckerberg (erlac4ebebib89) 2009; 15 Mesgaran (erlac4ebebib54) 2014; 20 Hamilton (erlac4ebebib27) 1994; 75 Russell (erlac4ebebib70) 2015; 7 Rayfield (erlac4ebebib68) 2008; 141 Thomas (erlac4ebebib80) 1999; 399 Ordonez (erlac4ebebib60) 2013; 16 Sales (erlac4ebebib71) 2020; 18 Hurtt (erlac4ebebib37) 2020; 13 Soultan (erlac4ebebib75) 2019; 9 Gillings (erlac4ebebib22) 2015; 21 Brommer (erlac4ebebib10) 2012; 7 Hickling (erlac4ebebib29) 2006; 12 Karger (erlac4ebebib42) 2017; 4 Keller (erlac4ebebib44) 2020 Cashion (erlac4ebebib14) 2020; 15 Goberville (erlac4ebebib23) 2015; 5 Tittensor (erlac4ebebib82) 2014; 346 van der Wal (erlac4ebebib83) 2013; 3 Barbet-Massin (erlac4ebebib7) 2012; 18 Hovick (erlac4ebebib32) 2016; 25 Reif (erlac4ebebib69) 2012; 121 Amano (erlac4ebebib2) 2018; 553 Koschová (erlac4ebebib46) 2014; 15 Karger (erlac4ebebib43) 2018 Sohl (erlac4ebebib74) 2014; 9 Allouche (erlac4ebebib1) 2006; 43 Areias Guerreiro (erlac4ebebib5) 2016; 27 Green (erlac4ebebib24) 2014; 89 Taheri (erlac4ebebib77) 2016; 3 Montalvo (erlac4ebebib55) 2006; 22 Cianfrani (erlac4ebebib15) 2018; 221 Kujala (erlac4ebebib47) 2013; 19 Harrison (erlac4ebebib28) 2003; 11 Johnson (erlac4ebebib40) 2009; 29 Frederiksen (erlac4ebebib19) 2018; 55 Lehner (erlac4ebebib51) 2004; 296 Liu (erlac4ebebib53) 2013; 40 (erlac4ebebib67) 2016 Littlefield (erlac4ebebib52) 2017; 31 Devictor (erlac4ebebib17) 2008; 275 Hijmans (erlac4ebebib30) 2019 Virkkala (erlac4ebebib85) 2014; 20 Pavón-Jordán (erlac4ebebib63) 2019; 25 Østnes (erlac4ebebib61) 2015; 25 Araújo (erlac4ebebib4) 2009; 106 Huntley (erlac4ebebib34) 2008; 3
References_xml	– volume: 3 start-page: 239 year: 2013 ident: erlac4ebebib83 article-title: Focus on poleward shifts in species’ distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change publication-title: Nat. Clim. Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate1688 – volume: 5 start-page: e157 year: 2007 ident: erlac4ebebib39 article-title: Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds publication-title: PLoS Biol. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.0050157 – year: 2016 ident: erlac4ebebib67 article-title: R: a language and environment for statistical computing – year: 2020 ident: erlac4ebebib44 – volume: 75 start-page: 521 year: 1994 ident: erlac4ebebib27 article-title: Predation of zebra mussels by diving ducks: an exclosure study publication-title: Ecology doi: 10.2307/1939555 – volume: 3 start-page: 1 year: 2016 ident: erlac4ebebib77 article-title: Did British breeding birds move north in the late 20th century? publication-title: Clim. Change doi: 10.1186/s40665-016-0020-5 – volume: 22 start-page: 1 year: 2006 ident: erlac4ebebib55 article-title: The distribution and conservation of the Kentish Plover Charadrius alexandrinus in Catalonia publication-title: Rev. Catalana d’Ornitologia – volume: 40 start-page: 778 year: 2013 ident: erlac4ebebib53 article-title: Selecting thresholds for the prediction of species occurrence with presence-only data publication-title: J. Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/jbi.12058 – volume: 25 start-page: 345 year: 2016 ident: erlac4ebebib32 article-title: Informing conservation by identifying range shift patterns across breeding habitats and migration strategies publication-title: Biodivers. Conserv. doi: 10.1007/s10531-016-1053-6 – volume: 285 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib59 article-title: Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios publication-title: Proc. R. Soc. B doi: 10.1098/rspb.2018.0792 – volume: 246 year: 2020 ident: erlac4ebebib64 article-title: Positive impacts of important bird and biodiversity areas on wintering waterbirds under changing temperatures throughout Europe and North Africa publication-title: Biol. Conserv. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108549 – volume: 553 start-page: 199 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib2 article-title: Successful conservation of global waterbird populations depends on effective governance publication-title: Nature doi: 10.1038/nature25139 – volume: 5 start-page: 1100 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib23 article-title: Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models publication-title: Ecol. Evol. doi: 10.1002/ece3.1411 – volume: 12 start-page: 450 year: 2006 ident: erlac4ebebib29 article-title: The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01116.x – volume: 228 start-page: 79 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib57 article-title: Importance of Natura 2000 sites for wintering waterbirds: low preference, species’ distribution changes and carrying capacity of Natura 2000 could fail to protect the species publication-title: Biol. Conserv. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.10.004 – volume: 121 start-page: 1053 year: 2012 ident: erlac4ebebib69 article-title: The role of species’ ecological traits in climatically driven altitudinal range shifts of central European birds publication-title: Oikos doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2011.20008.x – volume: 2 start-page: 121 year: 2012 ident: erlac4ebebib16 article-title: Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale publication-title: Nat. Clim. Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate1347 – volume: 29 start-page: 419 year: 2009 ident: erlac4ebebib40 article-title: The socio-spatial dynamics of extreme urban heat events: the case of heat-related deaths in Philadelphia publication-title: Appl. Geogr. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.11.004 – volume: 11 start-page: 31 year: 2003 ident: erlac4ebebib28 article-title: Modelling climate change impacts on the distribution of breeding birds in Britain and Ireland publication-title: J. Nat. Conserv. doi: 10.1078/1617-1381-00036 – volume: 25 start-page: 85 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib65 article-title: The sixth mass extinction: Anthropocene and the human impact on biodiversity publication-title: Rend. Lincei doi: 10.1007/s12210-013-0258-9 – volume: 16 year: 2021 ident: erlac4ebebib66 article-title: The future of invasive terrestrial vertebrates in Europe under climate and land-use change publication-title: Environ. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe95e – volume: 300 year: 2020 ident: erlac4ebebib56 article-title: Spatio-temporal patterns of crop damage caused by geese, swans and cranes—implications for crop damage prevention publication-title: Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2020.107001 – volume: 9 start-page: 955 year: 2019 ident: erlac4ebebib75 article-title: Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region publication-title: Sci. Rep. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6 – volume: 10 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib48 article-title: Conservation status of North American birds in the face of future climate change publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135350 – volume: 39 start-page: 1176 year: 2016 ident: erlac4ebebib72 article-title: Reduction of avian diversity in created versus natural and restored wetlands publication-title: Ecography doi: 10.1111/ecog.01736 – year: 2012 ident: erlac4ebebib12 article-title: Aspace: a collection of functions for estimating centrographic statistics and computational geometries for spatial point patterns – volume: 141 start-page: 438 year: 2008 ident: erlac4ebebib68 article-title: Comparing static versus dynamic protected areas in the Québec boreal forest publication-title: Biol. Conserv. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2007.10.013 – volume: 25 start-page: 225 year: 2019 ident: erlac4ebebib63 article-title: Habitat- and species-mediated short- and long-term distributional changes in waterbird abundance linked to variation in European winter weather publication-title: Divers. Distrib. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12855 – year: 2021 ident: erlac4ebebib8 – volume: 9 start-page: 14 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib86 article-title: Population trends, threats, and conservation recommendations for waterbirds in China publication-title: Avian Res. doi: 10.1186/s40657-018-0106-9 – volume: 21 start-page: 2155 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib22 article-title: Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12823 – volume: 16 start-page: 773 year: 2013 ident: erlac4ebebib60 article-title: Climatic and biotic velocities for woody taxa distributions over the last 16 000 years in eastern North America publication-title: Ecol. Lett. doi: 10.1111/ele.12110 – volume: 4 start-page: e4678 year: 2009 ident: erlac4ebebib25 article-title: An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0004678 – volume: 24 start-page: 38 year: 1997 ident: erlac4ebebib18 article-title: A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models publication-title: Environ. Conserv. doi: 10.1017/S0376892997000088 – volume: 9 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib74 article-title: The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous united states bird species from 2001 to 2075 publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112251 – volume: 20 start-page: 1147 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib54 article-title: Here be dragons: a tool for quantifying novelty due to covariate range and correlation change when projecting species distribution models publication-title: Divers. Distrib. doi: 10.1111/ddi.12209 – volume: 346 start-page: 241 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib82 article-title: A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.1257484 – volume: 257 year: 2021 ident: erlac4ebebib41 article-title: Evaluating created wetlands for bird diversity and reproductive success publication-title: Biol. Conserv. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109084 – volume: 27 year: 2016 ident: erlac4ebebib5 article-title: How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited publication-title: Hystrix doi: 10.4404/hystrix-27.1-11867 – volume: 33 start-page: 94 year: 1927 ident: erlac4ebebib20 article-title: A note on Lefever’s ‘standard deviational ellipse’ publication-title: Am. J. Sociol. doi: 10.1086/214336 – volume: 13 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib6 article-title: Can species distribution models really predict the expansion of invasive species? publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193085 – volume: 89 start-page: 105 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib24 article-title: Ecosystem services provided by waterbirds publication-title: Biol. Rev. doi: 10.1111/brv.12045 – volume: 41 start-page: 391 year: 2004 ident: erlac4ebebib9 article-title: The range margins of northern birds shift polewards publication-title: Ann. Zool. Fenn. – year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib43 article-title: CHELSAcruts—high resolution temperature and precipitation timeseries for the 20th century and beyond publication-title: EnviDat doi: 10.16904/envidat.159 – volume: 221 start-page: 103 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib15 article-title: More than range exposure: global otter vulnerability to climate change publication-title: Biol. Conserv. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.02.031 – volume: 3 start-page: e1439 year: 2008 ident: erlac4ebebib34 article-title: Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001439 – volume: 15 start-page: 1866 year: 2009 ident: erlac4ebebib89 article-title: Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01878.x – start-page: 521 year: 2007 ident: erlac4ebebib35 – volume: 23 start-page: 3610 year: 2017 ident: erlac4ebebib33 article-title: Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13683 – volume: 25 start-page: 59 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib61 article-title: The establishment of a breeding population of Smew Mergellus albellus in an atypical habitat on the Atlantic coast of Norway publication-title: Ornis Svec. doi: 10.34080/os.v25.22544 – volume: 7 start-page: 342 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib70 article-title: Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios publication-title: Diversity doi: 10.3390/d7040342 – volume: 55 start-page: 2019 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib19 article-title: Where do wintering cormorants come from? Long-term changes in the geographical origin of a migratory bird on a continental scale publication-title: J. Appl. Ecol. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13106 – volume: 7 year: 2012 ident: erlac4ebebib10 article-title: The breeding ranges of Central European and Arctic bird species move poleward publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0043648 – volume: 15 year: 2020 ident: erlac4ebebib14 article-title: Shifting seas, shifting boundaries: dynamic marine protected area designs for a changing climate publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241771.g001 – volume: 3 start-page: 763 year: 2013 ident: erlac4ebebib3 article-title: Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar publication-title: Ecol. Evol. doi: 10.1002/ece3.497 – year: 2019 ident: erlac4ebebib36 article-title: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 2015–2300 – volume: 13 start-page: 5425 year: 2020 ident: erlac4ebebib37 article-title: Harmonization of global land-use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6 publication-title: Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. doi: 10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020 – volume: 148 start-page: 1 year: 2002 ident: erlac4ebebib76 article-title: Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models publication-title: Ecol. Modelling doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00388-X – volume: 18 start-page: S49 year: 2008 ident: erlac4ebebib45 article-title: Key conservation issues for migratory land- and waterbird species on the world’s major flyways publication-title: Bird Conserv. Int. doi: 10.1017/S0959270908000439 – volume: 20 start-page: 599 year: 2001 ident: erlac4ebebib79 article-title: Evaluation of different duck varieties for the control of the golden apple snail Pomacea canaliculata in transplanted and direct seeded rice publication-title: Crop Prot. doi: 10.1016/S0261-2194(01)00029-1 – volume: 18 start-page: 83 year: 2020 ident: erlac4ebebib71 article-title: Multiple dimensions of climate change on the distribution of Amazon primates publication-title: Perspect. Ecol. Conserv. doi: 10.1016/j.pecon.2020.03.001 – volume: 141 start-page: 1343 year: 2008 ident: erlac4ebebib84 article-title: Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change publication-title: Biol. Conserv. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2008.03.007 – volume: 18 start-page: 881 year: 2012 ident: erlac4ebebib7 article-title: The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land-use and dispersal scenarios publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02552.x – volume: 22 start-page: 3170 year: 2016 ident: erlac4ebebib11 article-title: The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13274 – volume: 31 start-page: 1397 year: 2017 ident: erlac4ebebib52 article-title: Connecting today’s climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change publication-title: Conserv. Biol. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12938 – volume: 43 start-page: 1223 year: 2006 ident: erlac4ebebib1 article-title: Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS) publication-title: J. Appl. Ecol. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x – volume: 4 start-page: 1 year: 2017 ident: erlac4ebebib42 article-title: Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas publication-title: Sci. Data doi: 10.1038/sdata.2017.122 – volume: 15 start-page: 139 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib46 article-title: Species’ ecological traits correlate with predicted climatically-induced shifts of European breeding ranges in birds publication-title: Community Ecol. doi: 10.1556/ComEc.15.2014.2.2 – year: 2019 ident: erlac4ebebib30 article-title: Geosphere: spherical trigonometry – volume: 19 start-page: 420 year: 2013 ident: erlac4ebebib47 article-title: Range margin shifts of birds revisited—the role of spatiotemporally varying survey effort publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12042 – volume: 27 start-page: 366 year: 2004 ident: erlac4ebebib73 article-title: Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe publication-title: Ecography doi: 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03823.x – volume: 275 start-page: 2743 year: 2008 ident: erlac4ebebib17 article-title: Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough publication-title: Proc. R. Soc. B doi: 10.1098/rspb.2008.0878 – volume: 278 start-page: 1329 year: 2011 ident: erlac4ebebib49 article-title: Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science publication-title: Proc. R. Soc. B doi: 10.1098/rspb.2010.1877 – volume: 45 start-page: 2175 year: 2018 ident: erlac4ebebib87 article-title: Range shifts in response to past and future climate change: can climate velocities and species’ dispersal capabilities explain variation in mammalian range shifts? publication-title: J. Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/jbi.13395 – volume: 399 start-page: 213 year: 1999 ident: erlac4ebebib80 article-title: Birds extend their ranges northwards publication-title: Nature doi: 10.1038/20335 – year: 2021 ident: erlac4ebebib21 article-title: Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming publication-title: Conserv. Biol. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13877 – start-page: 151 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib38 – volume: 106 start-page: E45 year: 2009 ident: erlac4ebebib4 article-title: Reopening the climate envelope reveals macroscale associations with climate in European birds publication-title: Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA doi: 10.1073/pnas.0813294106 – volume: 296 start-page: 1 year: 2004 ident: erlac4ebebib51 article-title: Development and validation of a global database of lakes, reservoirs and wetlands publication-title: J. Hydrol. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.03.028 – volume: 20 start-page: 2995 year: 2014 ident: erlac4ebebib85 article-title: Patterns of climate-induced density shifts of species: poleward shifts faster in northern boreal birds than in southern birds publication-title: Glob. Change Biol. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12573 – volume: 399 start-page: 579 year: 1999 ident: erlac4ebebib62 article-title: Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming publication-title: Nature doi: 10.1038/21181 – volume: 24 start-page: 859 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib78 article-title: Swedish birds are tracking temperature but not rainfall: evidence from a decade of abundance changes publication-title: Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/geb.12308 – year: 2016 ident: erlac4ebebib81 article-title: Biomod2: ensemble platform for species distribution modeling – volume: 10 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib13 article-title: Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140486 – volume: 156 start-page: 923 year: 2015 ident: erlac4ebebib58 article-title: Long-term trends, total numbers and species richness of increasing waterbird populations at sites on the edge of their winter range: cold-weather refuge sites are more important than protected sites publication-title: J. Ornithol. doi: 10.1007/s10336-015-1223-4 – start-page: cxli, 903 year: 1997 ident: erlac4ebebib26 – volume: 21 start-page: 534 year: 2007 ident: erlac4ebebib31 article-title: Breeding distributions of North American bird species moving north as a result of climate change publication-title: Conserv. Biol. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00609.x – volume: 7 start-page: 1 year: 2017 ident: erlac4ebebib50 article-title: Counteracting wetland overgrowth increases breeding and staging bird abundances publication-title: Sci. Rep. doi: 10.1038/srep41391 – volume: 22 start-page: 1501 year: 2013 ident: erlac4ebebib88 article-title: Areas of high diversity for the world’s inland-breeding waterbirds publication-title: Biodivers. Conserv. doi: 10.1007/s10531-013-0488-2
SSID	ssj0054578
Score	2.4669342
Snippet	Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species...
SourceID	doaj swepub proquest crossref iop
SourceType	Open Website Open Access Repository Aggregation Database Enrichment Source Index Database Publisher
StartPage	24025
SubjectTerms	Animal breeding Aquatic birds Birds Breeding breeding distributions Centroids Climate change Ecology Ekologi Environmental changes Environmental restoration European Breeding Bird Atlas Geographical distribution Global warming Land use land-use change Population decline Population number Predictions Species species distribution models Wetlands
SummonAdditionalLinks	– databaseName: Institute of Physics Open Access Journal Titles dbid: O3W link: http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV1Lb9QwEB6VwoEL74qUgnwAIQ5hEzuOHXEC1IoDKhx49Gb5iSJV2VWypX-fcezddiVUIXFK5IwdZ2bs-ezYnwFetqJxBkcWpedBlhjxXGl8je2qa1wtZHB2Xjz-47M4PZVnZ93XPXi33QuzXOWu_y3eJqLgpMK8IE4uEENjWQg7Fto2WIdbcJtJ3kYn_8J-brphRAZC5v-Sf8u1E4dmun6MLvjKXaR5nT10jjgn9_-rrg_gXgaa5H0SfQh7fngEB8dX-9rwYW7Y02MY0F1I4hchLnLp5mOwyDKQS7-Oyx-J6Uc3ERxCz_GO9ANJU_kEnbWPEweO6F-6R7xJliZO9mJC2lc8ReHrxT6B7yfH3z5-KvNRDKXlQqxLzlzFOtnaWhuhg_FUWxFM7dqKsaZl2lpuu8hOaHkwrnK6RdxVmVYH4WrEfAewPywH_xRIqD1iGMyKo-Omo9pULTWhQ6DFbWVpVcBiYxhlM095PC7jXM3_y6VUUakqKlUlpRbwZptjlTg6bpD9EG29lYvs2nMCWk9l6ymKn4cdU8ArAhzBtWMtd40M2jeuc6yAV2hwlVv7dMPLyI6cH_EjhKIqEstRrlYuFHC0cbcrOTqjQFSgLOB1csGdCk_nF0aP8aImj2M4RJXN4T_W6RncpXEHx7zw_Aj21-OFfw537O91P40v5ib0B3oWINA priority: 102 providerName: IOP Publishing – databaseName: Engineering Database dbid: M7S link: http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV1Lb9QwEB5B4cAFyqNqoEU-gBCHaBMnjp0TKqgVB1Qh8VBvlp9VpCpZkm379zt2vN3uZS-cIiWTxMnMeD7b428APjS8thpHFrljXuQY8WyuXYl-1da25MJbE5PH__7g5-fi4qL9mSbcppRWue4TY0dtBxPmyBc0RkYM5uLL8l8eqkaF1dVUQuMxPAksCTSm7v1a98QIDrhIS5PoTAsE39gIxCsLZWps_FYoioz9GGC6YbkNNh8SiMagc_bif5u7D88T3CQns328hEeufwUHp5vdbXgxuff0Gno0GjKzjBAbGHVTMSwyeHLrViEJkuhutBPBgXSMeqTryTyhT9BkuzB9YIm6VB2iTjLoMOWLJ-bdxVMQfvjYN_Dn7PT3t-95KsiQG8b5KmeVLapWNKZUmiuvHVWGe13apqiquqmUMcy0gaPQMK9tYVWDf6DQjfLcloj8DmCvH3p3CMSXDpEM3opjZPxNShcN1b5FuMVMYWiRwWKtG2kSW3komnEl46q5EDJoUwZtylmbGXy-v2M5M3XskP0a1H0vFzi244lhvJTJZSXFz8PuyeMRYQ5nylYNs7XwytW2tVUGH9FYZPL5acfLyJacG_EjuKQy0MtRJpfWZ3C0tqKN3MaEMvg0W-FWg6era63GcJCTw5EcYsv67e4HvYNnNGzfiFnnR7C3Gq_dMTw1N6tuGt9H57kDCfAlbw priority: 102 providerName: ProQuest
Title	The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
URI	https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe https://www.proquest.com/docview/2635549298 https://res.slu.se/id/publ/116434 https://doaj.org/article/2e2a963f2e224175ad365d48fae4d9d3
Volume	17
WOSCitedRecordID	wos000753626800001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D
hasFullText	1
inHoldings	1
isFullTextHit
isPrint
journalDatabaseRights	– providerCode: PRVAON databaseName: DOAJ Open Access Full Text customDbUrl: eissn: 1748-9326 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0054578 issn: 1748-9326 databaseCode: DOA dateStart: 20060101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://www.doaj.org/ providerName: Directory of Open Access Journals – providerCode: PRVIOP databaseName: Institute of Physics Open Access Journal Titles customDbUrl: eissn: 1748-9326 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0054578 issn: 1748-9326 databaseCode: O3W dateStart: 20061001 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: http://iopscience.iop.org/ providerName: IOP Publishing – providerCode: PRVHPJ databaseName: ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources customDbUrl: eissn: 1748-9326 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0054578 issn: 1748-9326 databaseCode: M~E dateStart: 20060101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://road.issn.org providerName: ISSN International Centre – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Engineering Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1748-9326 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0054578 issn: 1748-9326 databaseCode: M7S dateStart: 20061101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: http://search.proquest.com providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Environmental Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1748-9326 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0054578 issn: 1748-9326 databaseCode: PATMY dateStart: 20061101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: http://search.proquest.com/environmentalscience providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: ProQuest Central customDbUrl: eissn: 1748-9326 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0054578 issn: 1748-9326 databaseCode: BENPR dateStart: 20061101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://www.proquest.com/central providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: ProQuest Publicly Available Content customDbUrl: eissn: 1748-9326 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0054578 issn: 1748-9326 databaseCode: PIMPY dateStart: 20061101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: http://search.proquest.com/publiccontent providerName: ProQuest
link	http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwrV1Lb9QwEB6hwoEL4lURKCsfQIhDtHk5do4t2opKZVnxLCfLzypSlV0lW3rrb-_Yzra7l3LhkkjJJHY8M5lvkvFngHc1q4zCzCK11PEUI55Jlc3Rr5rK5Iw7o0Px-K9TNp_zs7NmsbXUl68Ji_TAceCmhS0kGonDPQYbRqUpa2oq7qStTGMCzyeink0yFd_BCAsYH39KohtNEXZj84hUplJX2O2dIBS4-jG0tMvVLszcpg4N4eb4KTwZcSI5jP17Bg9s9xz2Z3fT0vDk6JfDC-hQ2yTSgxDjqXDHVazI0pEru_bVi0S1vRkIZsAhXJG2I_FLPEFba33eb4g8ly3CRbJU_lstHojTggcvvH3bl_DzePbj0-d0XEkh1ZSxdUpLk5UNr3UuFZNO4Zhq5lRu6qwsq7qUWlPdeHJBTZ0ymZE1wqZM1dIxkyNk24e9btnZV0BcbhGC4KWY3FZNIVVWF8o1iJOoznSRJTDdDK3QI824X-3iQoTf3ZwLrwzhlSGiMhL4eHvFKlJs3CN75LV1K-fJscMBNBkxmoz4l8kk8B51LUZnHe5pjOzI2R4fgolCeF64goqVcQkcbAzmTq4IIA4HkCfwIRrRToeHi0sle78Tg8UUDEFh9fp_PNgbeFz42RmhqPwA9tb9pX0Lj_TfdTv0E3h4NJsvvk2Cp0x8ket3v72e4fZr-RvPL06-LP7cAFOaHb0
linkProvider	Directory of Open Access Journals
linkToHtml	http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMw1V1Lb9QwEB6VggSX8qyaUsAHKsQh2sR5ODkgxKNVqy4rJArqzfhZRaqSJdlS8af4jYydpNu97K0HTpGSiRMn38x8tsczAK9zlmqJI4vQZLYI0ePpUJoY9apMdcwKq5UPHv8xZbNZcXZWft2Av-NeGBdWOdpEb6h1o9wc-YR6z4jOvHg__xW6qlFudXUsodHD4sT8ucIhW_fu-DP-331KDw9OPx2FQ1WBUGWMLcIs0VFSFrmKhWTCSkOFYlbGOo-SJM0ToVSmSpdoT2VW6kiLHJ8ayVxYpmOkL9juHbibOuvvQwW_jZYfyQgrhqVQVN4Jkn3sNPKjiVApfqwV1-crBKBDq5r5Krm9mbDUO7nDh__b53kEWwOdJh96_D-GDVM_ge2D5e49vDiYr-4p1KgUpM-iQrTLGDwU-yKNJVdm4YI8iazw3Ylse69Oqpr0CxYEVbJy0yOaiHNRIasmjXRT2nii3z3dOeGbzT6D77fS923YrJva7ACxsUGmhrfGicv_KGSUU2lLpJOZihSNApiMWOBqyMbuioJccB8VUBTcoYc79PAePQG8vb5j3mciWSP70cHrWs7lEPcnmvacDyaJU-weml-LR6RxLBM6yTOdFlaYVJc6CWAfwckHm9ateRhZkTMtdoJxyl36PJrxubYB7I2oXcotIRvAmx71Ky_cXVxK0boD7wyOVJE7p7vrG3oF949Ov0z59Hh28hweULdVxUfY78Hmor00L-Ce-r2ouvalV1wCP29bFf4BAZmDpA
linkToPdf	http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV1Lb9QwEB5BQYhLeVakFPABhDiETeI4do48ugJRLT3w6M3ys4pUZVfJFv4-Y8fbdiVUIXFKlIwTZ2bs-ezY3wC8bHhtNY4scse8yDHi2Vy7EttVW9uSC29NXDz-44gvFuLkpD1OeU7jXpjlKnX9b_F0IgqeVJgWxIkZYmh8FsKOmTI11mG2sv4m3GKU0ZC74Sv9uemKER1wkf5N_q3kViyKlP0YYfC122jzKoNojDrze_9d3_uwmwAneTeJP4Abrn8Ie4eX-9vwZmrg4yPo0W3IxDNCbODUTemwyNKT324dlkES3Q12JDiUjnGPdD2ZpvQJOm0XJhAsUaeqQ9xJljpM-uKFaX_xGISvPvYxfJ8ffvvwKU8pGXLDOF_njNqCtqIxpdJcee0qZbjXpW0KSuuGKmOYaQNLoWFe28KqBvFXoRvluS0R--3BTr_s3RMgvnSIZbAojpLrtlK6aCrtWwRczBSmKjKYbYwjTeIrD2kzzmT8by6EDIqVQbFyUmwGby5KrCaujmtk3wd7X8gFlu14AS0okwVlhZ-HHZTHIwIdzpSlDbO18MrVtrU0g1dodJla_XjNy8iWnBvwI7isZCCYq5hEh8jgYONyl3JVRIOoQJHB68kNtyo8np1rNYSDHB2O5RBd1vv_WKcXcOf441wefV58eQp3q7CpI65FP4Cd9XDunsFt82vdjcPz2KL-AC3PJi8
openUrl	ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=The+future+distribution+of+wetland+birds+breeding+in+Europe+validated+against+observed+changes+in+distribution&rft.jtitle=Environmental+research+letters&rft.au=Alaaeldin+Soultan&rft.au=Diego+Pav%C3%B3n-Jord%C3%A1n&rft.au=Ute+Bradter&rft.au=Brett+K+Sandercock&rft.date=2022-02-01&rft.pub=IOP+Publishing&rft.eissn=1748-9326&rft.volume=17&rft.issue=2&rft.spage=024025&rft_id=info:doi/10.1088%2F1748-9326%2Fac4ebe&rft.externalDBID=DOA&rft.externalDocID=oai_doaj_org_article_2e2a963f2e224175ad365d48fae4d9d3
thumbnail_l	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=1748-9326&client=summon
thumbnail_m	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=1748-9326&client=summon
thumbnail_s	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=1748-9326&client=summon