Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 319; no. 5863; p. 607
Main Authors: Lobell, David B, Burke, Marshall B, Tebaldi, Claudia, Mastrandrea, Michael D, Falcon, Walter P, Naylor, Rosamond L
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 01.02.2008
Subjects:
Africa, Southern
Agriculture - methods
Agriculture - trends
Asia
Bayes Theorem
Climate
Crops, Agricultural
Food Supply
Models, Statistical
Monte Carlo Method
Probability
Risk
Temperature
Africa, Southern
Asia
ISSN:1095-9203, 1095-9203
Online Access:Get more information
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Summary:Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.
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ISSN:1095-9203
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1152339