Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus
A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical in...
Uloženo v:
| Vydáno v: | Mathematical biosciences Ročník 325; s. 108364 |
|---|---|
| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Vydáno: |
United States
Elsevier Inc
01.07.2020
Elsevier Science Ltd |
| Témata: | |
| ISSN: | 0025-5564, 1879-3134, 1879-3134 |
| On-line přístup: | Získat plný text |
| Tagy: |
Přidat tag
Žádné tagy, Buďte první, kdo vytvoří štítek k tomuto záznamu!
|
| Abstract | A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by ℛc), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy.
•COVID-19 is controllable using basic non-pharmaceutical interventions.•Quarantine and contact-tracing have marginal impact in minimizing COVID-19 burden.•High use of face-masks in public could lead to COVID-19 elimination.•Combining face-masks and social-distancing is more effective in COVID-19 control.•Ending social-distancing early could trigger a devastating second COVID-19 wave. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by ℛc), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy.A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by ℛc), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy. A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by ℛc), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy. •COVID-19 is controllable using basic non-pharmaceutical interventions.•Quarantine and contact-tracing have marginal impact in minimizing COVID-19 burden.•High use of face-masks in public could lead to COVID-19 elimination.•Combining face-masks and social-distancing is more effective in COVID-19 control.•Ending social-distancing early could trigger a devastating second COVID-19 wave. A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by ℛc), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy. • COVID-19 is controllable using basic non-pharmaceutical interventions. • Quarantine and contact-tracing have marginal impact in minimizing COVID-19 burden. • High use of face-masks in public could lead to COVID-19 elimination. • Combining face-masks and social-distancing is more effective in COVID-19 control. • Ending social-distancing early could trigger a devastating second COVID-19 wave. A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by ℛ ), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy. A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by Rc), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy. |
| ArticleNumber | 108364 |
| Author | Ngonghala, Calistus N. Eikenberry, Steffen MacIntyre, Chandini Raina Bonds, Matthew H. Gumel, Abba B. Scotch, Matthew Iboi, Enahoro |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Calistus N. surname: Ngonghala fullname: Ngonghala, Calistus N. organization: Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Enahoro surname: Iboi fullname: Iboi, Enahoro organization: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Steffen surname: Eikenberry fullname: Eikenberry, Steffen organization: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Matthew orcidid: 0000-0001-5100-9724 surname: Scotch fullname: Scotch, Matthew organization: Biodesign Institute, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Chandini Raina orcidid: 0000-0002-3060-0555 surname: MacIntyre fullname: MacIntyre, Chandini Raina organization: Faculty of Medicine, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia – sequence: 6 givenname: Matthew H. surname: Bonds fullname: Bonds, Matthew H. organization: Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: Abba B. orcidid: 0000-0002-8413-1248 surname: Gumel fullname: Gumel, Abba B. email: agumel@asu.edu organization: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32360770$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
| BookMark | eNp9kc1u1DAUhS1URKeFB2CDIrFhk8F2_BchIaERFKQiNrC2HOem41FiD7YTibfH07SodNGVdXW_c3zsc4HOfPCA0GuCtwQT8f6wnbq0pZieZtUI9gxtiJJt3ZCGnaENxpTXnAt2ji5SOmBMJCHiBTpvaCOwlHiD4neT9zCZ7KwZK5MSpDSBz1UYqrKo3HQ09nYqd9fHvYmTsTCvuPMZ4lJoF3yqgq_sHLNxo_M3t2KKSVt0C4zVLsTgzeLinF6i54MZE7y6Oy_Rry-ff-6-1tc_rr7tPl3XljOe686oBtNWdtx0g5RMCaACuOEtxmroB9UCL2TPmMS0pz0nAoam5cKoVlrVN5fo4-p7nLsJeltyRjPqY3STiX90ME7_v_Fur2_CoiXllBJZDN7dGcTwe4aU9eSShXE0HsKcNG1aRQRRjBb07SP0EOboy_M0ZYwKImhLCvXmYaJ_Ue7rKIBcARtDShEGbV02p-8tAd2oCdan4vVBl-L1qXi9Fl-U5JHy3vwpzYdVA6WFxUHUyTrwFnoXwWbdB_eE-i_accba |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2021_108703 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_021_88473_4 crossref_primary_10_1155_2024_6069996 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph18094577 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2020_110103 crossref_primary_10_1007_s42044_023_00166_5 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_021_11808_3 crossref_primary_10_3389_fams_2020_611805 crossref_primary_10_1590_0102_311x00195420 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_pdisas_2024_100377 crossref_primary_10_1177_17571774231203387 crossref_primary_10_37432_jieph_supp_2022_5_2_04_11 crossref_primary_10_3390_idr13030062 crossref_primary_10_1098_rsos_210699 crossref_primary_10_1109_TNSE_2025_3563261 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2024_173754 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2020_110574 crossref_primary_10_1136_bmjopen_2020_046127 crossref_primary_10_1177_2373379920957970 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2021_108712 crossref_primary_10_1063_5_0029767 crossref_primary_10_1089_jamp_2020_1635 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ifacol_2021_10_264 crossref_primary_10_1088_1478_3975_ac5155 crossref_primary_10_1007_s44155_022_00011_3 crossref_primary_10_1007_s12080_023_00557_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mjafi_2021_05_005 crossref_primary_10_3928_24748307_20240321_01 crossref_primary_10_2196_21606 crossref_primary_10_1108_MRJIAM_06_2020_1046 crossref_primary_10_1098_rsos_201635 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108441 crossref_primary_10_3390_axioms10040274 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2024_1426992 crossref_primary_10_3390_math11040860 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40995_022_01372_9 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40010_024_00898_4 crossref_primary_10_1155_2020_4045064 crossref_primary_10_1186_s40249_022_01030_7 crossref_primary_10_3934_mbe_2025084 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2021_108614 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_arcontrol_2020_09_005 crossref_primary_10_1080_09720502_2021_1930659 crossref_primary_10_1186_s13662_025_03985_x crossref_primary_10_1016_j_physd_2020_132839 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108431 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_11934_x crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0290974 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jinf_2020_07_015 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0252136 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ifacol_2023_10_287 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11071_021_06489_x crossref_primary_10_3390_children8121183 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_021_82873_2 crossref_primary_10_1109_EMR_2020_3016043 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_vaccine_2021_08_098 crossref_primary_10_1002_mma_9675 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0252143 crossref_primary_10_1002_num_22695 crossref_primary_10_15302_J_QB_020_0229 crossref_primary_10_3390_su15075724 crossref_primary_10_1140_epjp_s13360_023_04328_z crossref_primary_10_1186_s12879_022_07302_9 crossref_primary_10_2196_20741 crossref_primary_10_1140_epjp_s13360_023_04766_9 crossref_primary_10_1155_2021_6645688 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph192114285 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_anai_2020_11_017 crossref_primary_10_1177_0272989X211003081 crossref_primary_10_1007_s12649_025_03222_2 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph19116864 crossref_primary_10_1080_17513758_2022_2116493 crossref_primary_10_1140_epjs_s11734_022_00530_9 crossref_primary_10_1002_hpm_3164 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_dajour_2023_100281 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40819_024_01759_9 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0275669 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40324_021_00260_3 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43856_024_00561_4 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_021_92094_2 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jtbi_2021_110692 crossref_primary_10_1177_2045894020948783 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apm_2024_03_007 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0301915 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_021_10257_2 crossref_primary_10_1007_s43069_023_00194_8 crossref_primary_10_3390_life11101045 crossref_primary_10_3390_pathogens9090735 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2023_113782 crossref_primary_10_7326_M20_6625 crossref_primary_10_1088_1478_3975_abf426 crossref_primary_10_1590_1413_81232021262_36702020 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2021_630974 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_021_94960_5 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0259874 crossref_primary_10_3390_fractalfract5040271 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_20152_4 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhin_2020_07_024 crossref_primary_10_3390_su14159586 crossref_primary_10_1515_reveh_2021_0012 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108405 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2022_1087683 crossref_primary_10_3389_fmicb_2022_830423 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jval_2021_10_007 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_padiff_2025_101217 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11071_022_07777_w crossref_primary_10_1126_science_abi9069 crossref_primary_10_3389_frai_2021_648579 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10708_023_10857_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jocs_2022_101662 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2024_109345 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_matcom_2025_09_010 crossref_primary_10_1155_2022_6624471 crossref_primary_10_1145_3411762 crossref_primary_10_3389_fmed_2020_594269 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2021_111458 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tra_2022_03_011 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_seppur_2021_120049 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2020_110075 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_annemergmed_2021_05_026 crossref_primary_10_1590_s1679_49742021000400003 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2023_108981 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_arcontrol_2021_05_003 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2024_1419109 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_021_10222_z crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2021_625499 crossref_primary_10_3389_fdmed_2020_617440 crossref_primary_10_1017_S0950268821002612 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43856_024_00691_9 crossref_primary_10_1186_s13662_020_03096_9 crossref_primary_10_1140_epjs_s11734_024_01274_4 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph18147594 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_14155_4 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0248243 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jtbi_2023_111468 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_matcom_2022_04_001 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2021_709369 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph20043376 crossref_primary_10_1136_tsaco_2020_000557 crossref_primary_10_3389_fams_2023_1292443 crossref_primary_10_1002_mma_9745 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_techfore_2023_122572 crossref_primary_10_1007_s43538_024_00265_2 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_physrep_2021_02_001 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_023_39723_0 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40588_024_00238_5 crossref_primary_10_1155_2022_2161869 crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2014564118 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_matcom_2023_10_008 crossref_primary_10_1002_mma_9185 crossref_primary_10_1136_bmjresp_2020_000698 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_021_10725_9 crossref_primary_10_1155_2022_5873432 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11071_020_05759_4 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40808_024_02101_4 crossref_primary_10_1080_10255842_2021_2024170 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2020_110283 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jece_2023_110491 crossref_primary_10_1145_3555310 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0248708 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0260151 crossref_primary_10_1063_5_0229920 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apm_2022_09_017 crossref_primary_10_1080_09720502_2021_2001139 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0324229 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_puhe_2020_09_012 crossref_primary_10_3390_healthcare10030483 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0259958 crossref_primary_10_2147_IDR_S501934 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2021_110689 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_epidem_2021_100463 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_021_99088_0 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2023_960500 crossref_primary_10_1088_1674_1056_ac98fb crossref_primary_10_1162_rest_a_01309 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40314_022_01993_1 crossref_primary_10_1155_2023_5124496 crossref_primary_10_1140_epjp_s13360_021_01333_y crossref_primary_10_1007_s40808_021_01202_8 crossref_primary_10_46481_jnsps_2022_414 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12916_022_02232_4 crossref_primary_10_3389_fphy_2022_1090234 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2021_111427 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_puhip_2021_100121 crossref_primary_10_1177_00333549211018203 crossref_primary_10_1136_bmj_2023_078573 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12879_021_06357_4 crossref_primary_10_1140_epjs_s11734_022_00648_w crossref_primary_10_1007_s44198_024_00188_y crossref_primary_10_1038_s41591_020_1132_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_imu_2021_100807 crossref_primary_10_1017_ice_2020_406 crossref_primary_10_1155_2023_2972164 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpubh_2021_643991 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2021_108621 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_09942_y crossref_primary_10_1002_mma_7095 crossref_primary_10_1002_mma_8184 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apm_2021_11_011 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jtbi_2021_110973 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2024_109288 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11071_021_06920_3 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_023_48465_y crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph19063202 crossref_primary_10_1093_imammb_dqac015 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108472 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apm_2025_116152 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00285_025_02240_x crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2021_110788 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_micinf_2020_09_006 crossref_primary_10_1016_S0140_6736_20_31183_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_heliyon_2023_e17900 crossref_primary_10_1177_0272989X211019029 crossref_primary_10_5472_marumj_1191644 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_health_2023_100157 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jtbi_2020_110568 crossref_primary_10_1088_1367_2630_abf459 crossref_primary_10_1080_17513758_2021_1946177 crossref_primary_10_1590_s1679_49742020000500018 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jtbi_2022_111258 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108452 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jtbi_2022_111017 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2025_109450 crossref_primary_10_1002_mma_10980 crossref_primary_10_1136_bmjopen_2020_045196 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pcbi_1011535 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_matcom_2022_07_012 crossref_primary_10_1108_JHTI_07_2020_0139 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13178_022_00719_6 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0249677 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jvoice_2020_06_028 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_idm_2025_05_001 crossref_primary_10_3390_math11030697 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph17238810 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2021_110885 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_021_12353_9 crossref_primary_10_1542_peds_2020_031971 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2020_110364 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2021_108648 crossref_primary_10_3390_vaccines11040857 crossref_primary_10_2196_32468 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40324_025_00404_9 crossref_primary_10_1111_poms_13675 crossref_primary_10_1155_2024_8837744 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jge_2022_100039 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11071_021_06712_9 crossref_primary_10_1155_2021_5384481 crossref_primary_10_3390_su17010110 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108370 crossref_primary_10_1098_rsos_202240 crossref_primary_10_1209_0295_5075_ade336 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0242957 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11538_024_01324_x crossref_primary_10_1007_s40808_024_02110_3 crossref_primary_10_1093_her_cyab028 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_apm_2021_06_016 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2021_111188 crossref_primary_10_1128_cmr_00124_23 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_021_10418_3 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11524_021_00517_2 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0261330 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_13597_0 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_022_13313_7 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12889_023_15450_z crossref_primary_10_3390_life12020180 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pcbi_1009122 crossref_primary_10_19113_sdufenbed_1683335 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chaos_2020_110599 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0262659 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_amepre_2021_09_019 |
| Cites_doi | 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.159 10.1056/NEJMoa2006100 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4 10.1007/s11538-006-9174-9 10.3390/jcm9020462 10.3201/eid1201.051371 10.1007/BF00178324 10.1001/jama.2020.2565 10.3934/mbe.2008.5.681 10.3855/jidc.239 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1 10.3201/eid1002.030730 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30370-6 10.1093/aje/kwj056 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.016 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105924 10.1371/journal.pone.0029744 10.1001/jama.2020.4031 10.1001/jama.2020.3204 10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.001 10.1001/jama.2020.3072 10.3201/eid1004.030628 10.7326/M20-0504 10.1056/NEJMc2001737 10.1001/jama.2020.3151 10.3201/eid1502.081166 10.1073/pnas.0611071104 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6 10.1017/dmp.2013.43 10.1164/rccm.201503-0481LE 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7 10.1111/resp.13196 10.1177/003335490912400105 10.1086/650396 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.675 10.1164/rccm.201805-0823LE 10.7326/0003-4819-151-7-200910060-00142 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.018 10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 10.1007/s11538-018-00549-x |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2020 Elsevier Inc. Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Jul 2020 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 2020 Elsevier Inc. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2020 Elsevier Inc. – notice: Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. – notice: Copyright Elsevier Science Ltd. Jul 2020 – notice: 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 2020 Elsevier Inc. |
| DBID | AAYXX CITATION CGR CUY CVF ECM EIF NPM 7QL 7QO 7QP 7SN 7TK 7TM 7U9 8FD C1K FR3 H94 M7N P64 RC3 7X8 5PM |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364 |
| DatabaseName | CrossRef Medline MEDLINE MEDLINE (Ovid) MEDLINE MEDLINE PubMed Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B) Biotechnology Research Abstracts Calcium & Calcified Tissue Abstracts Ecology Abstracts Neurosciences Abstracts Nucleic Acids Abstracts Virology and AIDS Abstracts Technology Research Database Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management Engineering Research Database AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C) Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts Genetics Abstracts MEDLINE - Academic PubMed Central (Full Participant titles) |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef MEDLINE Medline Complete MEDLINE with Full Text PubMed MEDLINE (Ovid) Virology and AIDS Abstracts Technology Research Database Nucleic Acids Abstracts Ecology Abstracts Neurosciences Abstracts Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management Genetics Abstracts Biotechnology Research Abstracts Bacteriology Abstracts (Microbiology B) Algology Mycology and Protozoology Abstracts (Microbiology C) AIDS and Cancer Research Abstracts Engineering Research Database Calcium & Calcified Tissue Abstracts MEDLINE - Academic |
| DatabaseTitleList | MEDLINE - Academic MEDLINE Virology and AIDS Abstracts |
| Database_xml | – sequence: 1 dbid: NPM name: PubMed url: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=PubMed sourceTypes: Index Database – sequence: 2 dbid: 7X8 name: MEDLINE - Academic url: https://search.proquest.com/medline sourceTypes: Aggregation Database |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Biology Mathematics Public Health |
| EISSN | 1879-3134 |
| EndPage | 108364 |
| ExternalDocumentID | PMC7252217 32360770 10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108364 S0025556420300560 |
| Genre | Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Journal Article |
| GeographicLocations | New York United States--US |
| GeographicLocations_xml | – name: New York – name: United States--US |
| GrantInformation_xml | – fundername: National Science Foundation grantid: 1917512 |
| GroupedDBID | --- --K --M --Z -~X .GJ .~1 0R~ 186 1B1 1RT 1~. 1~5 29M 4.4 457 4G. 53G 5GY 5VS 7-5 71M 8P~ 9JM AABVA AACTN AAEDT AAEDW AAIAV AAIKJ AAKOC AALCJ AALRI AAOAW AAQFI AAQXK AATLK AAXUO ABFNM ABFRF ABGRD ABJNI ABMAC ABTAH ABXDB ABYKQ ACDAQ ACGFO ACGFS ACIUM ACIWK ACPRK ACRLP ADBBV ADEZE ADMUD ADQTV AEBSH AEFWE AEKER AENEX AEQOU AETEA AFFNX AFKWA AFRAH AFTJW AFXIZ AGHFR AGUBO AGYEJ AHHHB AIEXJ AIKHN AITUG AJBFU AJOXV ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMFUW AMRAJ ASPBG AVWKF AXJTR AZFZN BKOJK BLXMC CBWCG CS3 DU5 EBS EFJIC EFLBG EJD EO8 EO9 EP2 EP3 F5P FDB FEDTE FGOYB FIRID FNPLU FYGXN G-2 G-Q GBLVA HLV HMJ HVGLF HZ~ H~9 IHE J1W KOM LW9 M26 M41 MO0 MVM N9A O-L O9- OAUVE OZT P-8 P-9 P2P PC. PQQKQ Q38 R2- RIG ROL RPZ SAB SDF SDG SDP SES SEW SME SPCBC SSA SSZ T5K TN5 UNMZH WH7 WUQ XOL XSW YQT ZCG ZGI ZXP ZY4 ~G- ~KM 9DU AATTM AAXKI AAYWO AAYXX ABWVN ACLOT ACRPL ACVFH ADCNI ADNMO AEIPS AEUPX AFJKZ AFPUW AGQPQ AIGII AIIUN AKBMS AKRWK AKYEP ANKPU APXCP CITATION EFKBS ~HD AGCQF AGRNS BNPGV CGR CUY CVF ECM EIF NPM SSH 7QL 7QO 7QP 7SN 7TK 7TM 7U9 8FD C1K FR3 H94 M7N P64 RC3 7X8 5PM |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c545t-ba830297b5abf77486e26e5a59008fdf89e5c54d44702d2d516ef3956a897c8d3 |
| ISICitedReferencesCount | 323 |
| ISICitedReferencesURI | http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=000541263900004&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| ISSN | 0025-5564 1879-3134 |
| IngestDate | Tue Sep 30 16:37:23 EDT 2025 Sat Sep 27 22:06:37 EDT 2025 Wed Aug 13 09:05:57 EDT 2025 Mon Jul 21 05:49:56 EDT 2025 Tue Nov 18 21:42:08 EST 2025 Sat Nov 29 07:26:18 EST 2025 Fri Feb 23 02:47:45 EST 2024 |
| IsDoiOpenAccess | true |
| IsOpenAccess | true |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Keywords | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Non-pharmaceutical intervention Quarantine Isolation Face-mask Mathematical model Contact-tracing Social-distancing |
| Language | English |
| License | Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
| LinkModel | OpenURL |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c545t-ba830297b5abf77486e26e5a59008fdf89e5c54d44702d2d516ef3956a897c8d3 |
| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 Other affiliation: College of Health Solutions & College of Public Affairs and Community Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, 85287, USA. Other affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa. |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8413-1248 0000-0001-5100-9724 0000-0002-3060-0555 |
| OpenAccessLink | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7252217 |
| PMID | 32360770 |
| PQID | 2442616291 |
| PQPubID | 105577 |
| PageCount | 1 |
| ParticipantIDs | pubmedcentral_primary_oai_pubmedcentral_nih_gov_7252217 proquest_miscellaneous_2398161842 proquest_journals_2442616291 pubmed_primary_32360770 crossref_citationtrail_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108364 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108364 elsevier_sciencedirect_doi_10_1016_j_mbs_2020_108364 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2020-07-01 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2020-07-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 07 year: 2020 text: 2020-07-01 day: 01 |
| PublicationDecade | 2020 |
| PublicationPlace | United States |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: United States – name: New York |
| PublicationTitle | Mathematical biosciences |
| PublicationTitleAlternate | Math Biosci |
| PublicationYear | 2020 |
| Publisher | Elsevier Inc Elsevier Science Ltd |
| Publisher_xml | – name: Elsevier Inc – name: Elsevier Science Ltd |
| References | Paul French (b26) 2020 Cowling, Chan, Fang, Cheng, Fung, Wai, Sin, Seto, Yung, Chu (b32) 2009; 151 Driessche, Hens, Tilley, Quon, Chilvers, de Groot, Zlosnik (b53) 2015; 192 van der Sande, Teunis, Sabel (b55) 2008; 3 Morens, Taubenberger, Folkers, Fauci (b22) 2009; 124 Tognotti (b23) 2009; 3 Feng, Zhang (b66) 2020 Aiello, Perez, Coulborn, Davis, Uddin, Monto (b31) 2012; 7 Dénes, Gumel (b39) 2019; 4 Arino, Brauer, Van Den Driessche, Watmough, Wu (b59) 2007; 4 Brauer (b62) 2008; 5 World Health Organization (b16) 2020 Wu, Xu, Zhou, Feikin, Lin, He, Zhu, Liang, Chin, Schuchat (b27) 2004; 10 Levenson, Joseph (b68) 2020 Tian, Hu, Lou, Chen, Kang, Xiang, Chen, Wang, Liu, Liu (b46) 2020; 80 Li, Pei, Chen, Song, Zhang, Yang, Shaman (b51) 2020 Kucharski, Russell, Diamond, Liu, Edmunds, Funk, Eggo, Sun, Jit, Munday (b37) 2020 for Disease Control, Preventio (b7) 2020 World Health Organization (b2) 2020 Eikenberry, Muncuso, Iboi, Phan, Kostelich, Kuang, Gumel (b52) 2020; 5 van den Driessche, Watmough (b57) 2002; 180 Day, Park, Madras, Gumel, Wu (b71) 2006; 163 Yin, Wunderink (b10) 2018; 23 Feng, Xu, Zhao (b41) 2007; 69 Josh Michaud, Jennifer Kates (b20) 2020 Sarah Mervosh, Denise Lu, Vanessa Swales (b17) 2020 Ferguson, Laydon, Nedjati-Gilani, Imai, Ainslie, Baguelin, Bhatia, Boonyasiri, Cucunubá, Cuomo-Dannenburg (b34) 2020 Anderson, Heesterbeek, Klinkenberg, Hollingsworth (b49) 2020; 395 Hellewell, Abbott, Gimma, Bosse, Jarvis, Russell, Munday, Kucharski, Edmunds, Sun (b36) 2020 Silverstein, Stroud, Cleghorn, Leis (b42) 2020; 395 The National Academies of Sciences, Medicine (b12) 2020 Sharon Begley (b69) 2020 Wang, Ng, Brook (b29) 2020 Bi, Wu, Mei, Ye, Zou, Zhang, Liu, Wei, Truelove, Zhang (b18) 2020 Lau, Tsui, Lau, Yang (b28) 2004; 10 Tang, Wang, Li, Bragazzi, Tang, Xiao, Wu (b64) 2020; 9 World Health Organization (b19) 2020 World Health Organization (b1) 2020 Yang, Cao, Qin, Wang, Cheng, Pan, Dai, Sun, Zhao, Qu (b43) 2020; 80 Bryner, Ghose, Rettner, Saplakoglu, Lanese (b9) 2020 Bootsma, Ferguson (b21) 2007; 104 Kermack, McKendrick (b38) 1927; 115 Lai, Shih, Ko, Tang, Hsueh (b14) 2020 del Rio, Malani (b15) 2020 Dong, Du, Gardner (b5) 2020 Lauer, Grantz, Bi, Jones, Zheng, Meredith, Azman, Reich, Lessler (b13) 2020 Aiello, Murray, Perez, Coulborn, Davis, Uddin (b30) 2010; 201 Layne, Caspani (b67) 2020 MacIntyre, Cauchemez, Dwyer, Seale, Cheung, Browne, Fasher, Wood, Gao, Booy (b33) 2009; 15 Mizumoto, Chowell (b35) 2020 Luckingham (b25) 1984 Diekmann, Heesterbeek, Metz (b58) 1990; 28 Xu, Wu, Jiang, Xu, Ying, Ma, Li, Wang, Zhang, Gao (b44) 2020; 368 Zou, Ruan, Huang, Liang, Huang, Hong, Yu, Kang, Song, Xia (b48) 2020; 382 Bai, Yao, Wei, Tian, Jin, Chen, Wang (b11) 2020 for Disease Prevention, Control (b50) 2020 Brauer (b61) 2019; 81 Stockwell, Wood, He, Sherrard, Kidd (b54) 2018; 198 Grasselli, Pesenti, Cecconi (b56) 2020 Dong, Du, Gardner (b4) 2020 Meghan Herbst (b70) 2020 World Health Organization Writing Group (b24) 2006; 12 Holshue, DeBolt, Lindquist, Lofy, Wiesman, Bruce, Spitters, Ericson, Wilkerson, Tural (b8) 2020 Li, Guan, Wu, Wang, Zhou, Tong, Ren, Leung, Lau, Wong (b3) 2020 IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team (b65) 2020 Brauer (b60) 2017; 2 World Health Organization (b6) 2020 Feng (b40) 2007; 4 Gudbjartsson, Helgason, Jonsson, Magnusson, Melsted, Norddahl, Saemundsdottir, Sigurdsson, Sulem, Agustsdottir (b47) 2020 Young, Ong, Kalimuddin, Low, Tan, Loh, Ng, Marimuthu, Ang, Mak (b45) 2020 Davies, Thompson, Giri, Kafatos, Walker, Bennett (b63) 2013; 7 for Disease Control (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b7) 2020 Holshue (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b8) 2020 Driessche (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b53) 2015; 192 World Health Organization (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b2) 2020 Brauer (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b62) 2008; 5 Yin (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b10) 2018; 23 Lai (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b14) 2020 Meghan Herbst (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b70) 2020 Tian (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b46) 2020; 80 Feng (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b40) 2007; 4 Aiello (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b31) 2012; 7 for Disease Prevention (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b50) 2020 Diekmann (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b58) 1990; 28 The National Academies of Sciences (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b12) 2020 World Health Organization Writing Group (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b24) 2006; 12 Arino (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b59) 2007; 4 Morens (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b22) 2009; 124 Stockwell (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b54) 2018; 198 Feng (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b41) 2007; 69 Dong (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b5) 2020 Young (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b45) 2020 Gudbjartsson (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b47) 2020 Anderson (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b49) 2020; 395 Lauer (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b13) 2020 Bi (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b18) 2020 Cowling (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b32) 2009; 151 Layne (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b67) 2020 Brauer (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b60) 2017; 2 Davies (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b63) 2013; 7 Bryner (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b9) 2020 World Health Organization (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b6) 2020 World Health Organization (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b19) 2020 Tognotti (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b23) 2009; 3 Aiello (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b30) 2010; 201 Bai (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b11) 2020 Yang (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b43) 2020; 80 Li (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b51) 2020 Silverstein (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b42) 2020; 395 Kermack (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b38) 1927; 115 Mizumoto (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b35) 2020 Tang (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b64) 2020; 9 Dong (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b4) 2020 Kucharski (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b37) 2020 Lau (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b28) 2004; 10 World Health Organization (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b16) 2020 IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b65) 2020 van der Sande (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b55) 2008; 3 Bootsma (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b21) 2007; 104 Luckingham (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b25) 1984 Hellewell (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b36) 2020 Sarah Mervosh (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b17) 2020 Grasselli (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b56) 2020 del Rio (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b15) 2020 Josh Michaud (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b20) 2020 Sharon Begley (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b69) 2020 Levenson (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b68) 2020 Ferguson (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b34) 2020 Wang (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b29) 2020 MacIntyre (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b33) 2009; 15 Eikenberry (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b52) 2020; 5 Paul French (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b26) 2020 Brauer (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b61) 2019; 81 Wu (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b27) 2004; 10 van den Driessche (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b57) 2002; 180 Zou (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b48) 2020; 382 Xu (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b44) 2020; 368 Day (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b71) 2006; 163 World Health Organization (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b1) 2020 Feng (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b66) 2020 Li (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b3) 2020 Dénes (10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b39) 2019; 4 |
| References_xml | – start-page: 191 year: 1984 end-page: 204 ident: b25 article-title: To mask or not to mask: A note on the 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic in Tucson publication-title: J. Ariz. Hist. – volume: 15 start-page: 233 year: 2009 end-page: 241 ident: b33 article-title: Face mask use and control of respiratory virus transmission in households publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases – year: 2020 ident: b68 article-title: New york governor cuomo says social distancing efforts are working to slow coronavirus publication-title: Cable News Network – volume: 124 start-page: 22 year: 2009 end-page: 25 ident: b22 article-title: An historical antecedent of modern guidelines for community pandemic influenza mitigation publication-title: Public Health Rep. – volume: 81 start-page: 869 year: 2019 end-page: 877 ident: b61 article-title: The final size of a serious epidemic publication-title: Bull. Math. Biol. – year: 2020 ident: b13 article-title: The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application publication-title: Ann. Int. Med. – volume: 10 start-page: 210 year: 2004 ident: b27 article-title: Risk factors for SARS among persons without known contact with SARS patients, Beijing, China publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases – year: 2020 ident: b65 article-title: Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months publication-title: medRxiv – year: 2020 ident: b2 article-title: Emergencies, preparedness, response. Pneumonia of unknown origin – China publication-title: Dis. Outbreak News – year: 2020 ident: b50 article-title: Situation update worldwide publication-title: ECDC – year: 2020 ident: b45 article-title: Epidemiologic features and clinical course of patients infected with SARS-cov-2 in Singapore publication-title: JAMA – year: 2020 ident: b47 article-title: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic population publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. – year: 2020 ident: b66 article-title: Statistical evidence social distancing is working: Look at the effect on new coronavirus cases over time publication-title: N. Y. Daily News – year: 2020 ident: b69 article-title: Social distancing is controlling COVID-19; now scientists need to figure out which measures are most effective publication-title: STAT (Health) – volume: 80 start-page: 401 year: 2020 end-page: 406 ident: b46 article-title: Characteristics of COVID-19 infection in Beijing publication-title: J. Infect. – volume: 163 start-page: 479 year: 2006 end-page: 485 ident: b71 article-title: When is quarantine a useful control strategy for emerging infectious diseases? publication-title: Am. J. Epidemiol. – year: 2020 ident: b16 article-title: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation report, 46 publication-title: WHO – year: 2020 ident: b29 article-title: Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big data analytics, new technology, and proactive testing publication-title: JAMA – year: 2020 ident: b15 article-title: COVID-19—new insights on a rapidly changing epidemic publication-title: JAMA – year: 2020 ident: b35 article-title: Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – year: 2020 ident: b67 article-title: New york reports 779 more deaths, governor says social distancing working publication-title: Reuters: Heath News – volume: 9 start-page: 462 year: 2020 ident: b64 article-title: Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions publication-title: J. Clin. Med. – year: 2020 ident: b17 article-title: See which states and cities have told residents to stay at home publication-title: N.Y. Times – year: 2020 ident: b18 article-title: Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts publication-title: MedRxiv – volume: 192 start-page: 897 year: 2015 end-page: 899 ident: b53 article-title: Surgical masks reduce airborne spread of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in colonized patients with cystic fibrosis publication-title: Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. – volume: 3 year: 2008 ident: b55 article-title: Professional and home-made face masks reduce exposure to respiratory infections among the general population publication-title: PLoS One e2618 – year: 2020 ident: b34 article-title: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand, vol. 16 – volume: 104 start-page: 7588 year: 2007 end-page: 7593 ident: b21 article-title: The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in US cities publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. – year: 2020 ident: b26 article-title: In the 1918 flu pandemic, not wearing a mask was illegal in some parts of America. What changed? – volume: 4 start-page: 675 year: 2007 ident: b40 article-title: Final and peak epidemic sizes for SEIR models with quarantine and isolation publication-title: Math. Biosci. Eng. – volume: 12 start-page: 88 year: 2006 end-page: 94 ident: b24 article-title: Nonpharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza, national and community measures publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases – volume: 7 start-page: 413 year: 2013 end-page: 418 ident: b63 article-title: Testing the efficacy of homemade masks: Would they protect in an influenza pandemic? publication-title: Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. – year: 2020 ident: b51 article-title: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-cov2) publication-title: Science – volume: 5 start-page: 681 year: 2008 ident: b62 article-title: Age-of-infection and the final size relation publication-title: Math. Biosci. Eng. – year: 2020 ident: b3 article-title: Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. – volume: 115 start-page: 700 year: 1927 end-page: 721 ident: b38 article-title: A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics publication-title: Proc. R. Soc. A – volume: 4 start-page: 159 year: 2007 ident: b59 article-title: A final size relation for epidemic models publication-title: Math. Biosci. Eng. – volume: 395 start-page: 734 year: 2020 ident: b42 article-title: First imported case of 2019 novel coronavirus in Canada, presenting as mild pneumonia publication-title: Lancet – volume: 180 start-page: 29 year: 2002 end-page: 48 ident: b57 article-title: Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission publication-title: Math. Biosci. – year: 2020 ident: b7 article-title: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – year: 2020 ident: b6 article-title: Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports publication-title: WHO – year: 2020 ident: b20 article-title: Is contact tracing getting enough attention in U.S. coronavirus response? publication-title: Global Health Policy – volume: 3 start-page: 331 year: 2009 end-page: 334 ident: b23 article-title: Influenza pandemics: A historical retrospect publication-title: J. Infect. Develop. Ctries. – year: 2020 ident: b37 article-title: Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. – volume: 368 year: 2020 ident: b44 article-title: Clinical findings in a group of patients infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-cov-2) outside of wuhan, China: Retrospective case series publication-title: Brit. Med. J. – volume: 2 start-page: 12 year: 2017 end-page: 20 ident: b60 article-title: A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – volume: 7 start-page: e29744 year: 2012 end-page: e ident: b31 article-title: Facemasks, hand hygiene, and influenza among young adults: A randomized intervention trial publication-title: PLoS One – volume: 10 start-page: 587 year: 2004 ident: b28 article-title: SARS transmission, risk factors, and prevention in Hong Kong publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases – volume: 198 start-page: 1339 year: 2018 end-page: 1342 ident: b54 article-title: Face masks reduce the release of Pseudomonas aeruginosa cough aerosols when worn for clinically relevant periods publication-title: Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. – year: 2020 ident: b5 article-title: Coronavirus COVID-19 global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. – year: 2020 ident: b12 article-title: Rapid expert consultation on the effectiveness of fabric masks for the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Natl. Acad. – volume: 201 start-page: 491 year: 2010 end-page: 498 ident: b30 article-title: Mask use, hand hygiene, and seasonal influenza-like illness among young adults: A randomized intervention trial publication-title: J. Infect. Dis. – year: 2020 ident: b9 article-title: Coronavirus cases top 94,000: Live updates on COVID-19 publication-title: Live Sci. – year: 2020 ident: b19 article-title: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report – 72 publication-title: WHO – volume: 4 start-page: 12 year: 2019 end-page: 27 ident: b39 article-title: Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – volume: 382 start-page: 1177 year: 2020 end-page: 1179 ident: b48 article-title: SARS-CoV-2 viral load in upper respiratory specimens of infected patients publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. – volume: 28 start-page: 365 year: 1990 end-page: 382 ident: b58 article-title: On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio publication-title: J. Math. Biol. – year: 2020 ident: b8 article-title: First case of 2019 novel coronavirus in the United States publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. – volume: 151 start-page: 437 year: 2009 end-page: 446 ident: b32 article-title: Facemasks and hand hygiene to prevent influenza transmission in households: A cluster randomized trial publication-title: Ann. Intern. Med. – year: 2020 ident: b36 article-title: Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts publication-title: Lancet Global Health – year: 2020 ident: b56 article-title: Critical care utilization for the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: early experience and forecast during an emergency response publication-title: JAMA – volume: 23 start-page: 130 year: 2018 end-page: 137 ident: b10 article-title: MERS, SARS and other coronaviruses as causes of pneumonia publication-title: Respirology – start-page: 105924 year: 2020 ident: b14 article-title: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-cov-2) and corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges publication-title: Int. J. Antimicrob. Ag. – volume: 80 start-page: 388 year: 2020 end-page: 393 ident: b43 article-title: Clinical characteristics and imaging manifestations of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A multi-center study in Wenzhou city, Zhejiang, China publication-title: J. Infect. – year: 2020 ident: b70 article-title: The Asian countries that beat COVID-19 have to do it again publication-title: Wired – volume: 395 start-page: 931 year: 2020 end-page: 934 ident: b49 article-title: How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? publication-title: Lancet – year: 2020 ident: b4 article-title: An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. – year: 2020 ident: b11 article-title: Presumed asymptomatic carrier transmission of COVID-19 publication-title: JAMA – volume: 5 start-page: 293 year: 2020 end-page: 308 ident: b52 article-title: To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Infectious Disease Modeling – year: 2020 ident: b1 article-title: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) technical guidance publication-title: WHO – volume: 69 start-page: 1511 year: 2007 end-page: 1536 ident: b41 article-title: Epidemiological models with non-exponentially distributed disease stages and applications to disease control publication-title: Bull. Math. Biol. – volume: 4 start-page: 159 issue: 2 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b59 article-title: A final size relation for epidemic models publication-title: Math. Biosci. Eng. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.159 – volume: 4 start-page: 12 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b39 article-title: Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b47 article-title: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic population publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2006100 – volume: 395 start-page: 931 issue: 10228 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b49 article-title: How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? publication-title: Lancet doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b37 article-title: Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b65 article-title: Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months publication-title: medRxiv – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b70 article-title: The Asian countries that beat COVID-19 have to do it again publication-title: Wired – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b1 article-title: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) technical guidance publication-title: WHO – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b2 article-title: Emergencies, preparedness, response. Pneumonia of unknown origin – China publication-title: Dis. Outbreak News – volume: 69 start-page: 1511 issue: 5 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b41 article-title: Epidemiological models with non-exponentially distributed disease stages and applications to disease control publication-title: Bull. Math. Biol. doi: 10.1007/s11538-006-9174-9 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b16 article-title: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation report, 46 publication-title: WHO – volume: 9 start-page: 462 issue: 2 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b64 article-title: Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions publication-title: J. Clin. Med. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020462 – volume: 2 start-page: 12 issue: 1 year: 2017 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b60 article-title: A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – volume: 12 start-page: 88 issue: 1 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b24 article-title: Nonpharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza, national and community measures publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases doi: 10.3201/eid1201.051371 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b51 article-title: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-cov2) publication-title: Science – volume: 28 start-page: 365 issue: 4 year: 1990 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b58 article-title: On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations publication-title: J. Math. Biol. doi: 10.1007/BF00178324 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b9 article-title: Coronavirus cases top 94,000: Live updates on COVID-19 publication-title: Live Sci. – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b11 article-title: Presumed asymptomatic carrier transmission of COVID-19 publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.2565 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b26 – volume: 5 start-page: 681 issue: 4 year: 2008 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b62 article-title: Age-of-infection and the final size relation publication-title: Math. Biosci. Eng. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2008.5.681 – volume: 3 start-page: 331 issue: 05 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b23 article-title: Influenza pandemics: A historical retrospect publication-title: J. Infect. Develop. Ctries. doi: 10.3855/jidc.239 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b4 article-title: An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1 – volume: 10 start-page: 210 issue: 2 year: 2004 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b27 article-title: Risk factors for SARS among persons without known contact with SARS patients, Beijing, China publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases doi: 10.3201/eid1002.030730 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b68 article-title: New york governor cuomo says social distancing efforts are working to slow coronavirus publication-title: Cable News Network – volume: 395 start-page: 734 issue: 10225 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b42 article-title: First imported case of 2019 novel coronavirus in Canada, presenting as mild pneumonia publication-title: Lancet doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30370-6 – volume: 163 start-page: 479 issue: 5 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b71 article-title: When is quarantine a useful control strategy for emerging infectious diseases? publication-title: Am. J. Epidemiol. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwj056 – volume: 80 start-page: 388 issue: 4 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b43 article-title: Clinical characteristics and imaging manifestations of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A multi-center study in Wenzhou city, Zhejiang, China publication-title: J. Infect. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.016 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b20 article-title: Is contact tracing getting enough attention in U.S. coronavirus response? publication-title: Global Health Policy – start-page: 105924 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b14 article-title: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-cov-2) and corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges publication-title: Int. J. Antimicrob. Ag. doi: 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105924 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b35 article-title: Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 publication-title: Infect. Dis. Model. – volume: 7 start-page: e29744 issue: 1 year: 2012 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b31 article-title: Facemasks, hand hygiene, and influenza among young adults: A randomized intervention trial publication-title: PLoS One doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0029744 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b56 article-title: Critical care utilization for the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: early experience and forecast during an emergency response publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.4031 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b45 article-title: Epidemiologic features and clinical course of patients infected with SARS-cov-2 in Singapore publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.3204 – volume: 5 start-page: 293 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b52 article-title: To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Infectious Disease Modeling doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.04.001 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b15 article-title: COVID-19—new insights on a rapidly changing epidemic publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.3072 – volume: 10 start-page: 587 issue: 4 year: 2004 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b28 article-title: SARS transmission, risk factors, and prevention in Hong Kong publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases doi: 10.3201/eid1004.030628 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b13 article-title: The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application publication-title: Ann. Int. Med. doi: 10.7326/M20-0504 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b7 – volume: 382 start-page: 1177 issue: 12 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b48 article-title: SARS-CoV-2 viral load in upper respiratory specimens of infected patients publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2001737 – volume: 3 issue: 07 year: 2008 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b55 article-title: Professional and home-made face masks reduce exposure to respiratory infections among the general population publication-title: PLoS One e2618 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b29 article-title: Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big data analytics, new technology, and proactive testing publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.3151 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b34 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b5 article-title: Coronavirus COVID-19 global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE publication-title: Lancet Infect. Dis. – volume: 15 start-page: 233 issue: 2 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b33 article-title: Face mask use and control of respiratory virus transmission in households publication-title: Emerg. Infect. Diseases doi: 10.3201/eid1502.081166 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b69 article-title: Social distancing is controlling COVID-19; now scientists need to figure out which measures are most effective publication-title: STAT (Health) – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b19 article-title: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report – 72 publication-title: WHO – volume: 104 start-page: 7588 issue: 18 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b21 article-title: The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in US cities publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0611071104 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b67 article-title: New york reports 779 more deaths, governor says social distancing working publication-title: Reuters: Heath News – volume: 115 start-page: 700 issue: 772 year: 1927 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b38 article-title: A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics publication-title: Proc. R. Soc. A – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b3 article-title: Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 – start-page: 191 year: 1984 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b25 article-title: To mask or not to mask: A note on the 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic in Tucson publication-title: J. Ariz. Hist. – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b50 article-title: Situation update worldwide publication-title: ECDC – volume: 180 start-page: 29 issue: 1–2 year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b57 article-title: Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission publication-title: Math. Biosci. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6 – volume: 7 start-page: 413 issue: 4 year: 2013 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b63 article-title: Testing the efficacy of homemade masks: Would they protect in an influenza pandemic? publication-title: Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2013.43 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b6 article-title: Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports publication-title: WHO – volume: 192 start-page: 897 issue: 07 year: 2015 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b53 article-title: Surgical masks reduce airborne spread of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in colonized patients with cystic fibrosis publication-title: Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201503-0481LE – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b17 article-title: See which states and cities have told residents to stay at home publication-title: N.Y. Times – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b36 article-title: Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts publication-title: Lancet Global Health doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7 – volume: 23 start-page: 130 issue: 2 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b10 article-title: MERS, SARS and other coronaviruses as causes of pneumonia publication-title: Respirology doi: 10.1111/resp.13196 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b12 article-title: Rapid expert consultation on the effectiveness of fabric masks for the COVID-19 pandemic publication-title: Natl. Acad. – volume: 124 start-page: 22 issue: 1 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b22 article-title: An historical antecedent of modern guidelines for community pandemic influenza mitigation publication-title: Public Health Rep. doi: 10.1177/003335490912400105 – volume: 368 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b44 article-title: Clinical findings in a group of patients infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-cov-2) outside of wuhan, China: Retrospective case series publication-title: Brit. Med. J. – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b18 article-title: Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts publication-title: MedRxiv – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b66 article-title: Statistical evidence social distancing is working: Look at the effect on new coronavirus cases over time publication-title: N. Y. Daily News – volume: 201 start-page: 491 issue: 4 year: 2010 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b30 article-title: Mask use, hand hygiene, and seasonal influenza-like illness among young adults: A randomized intervention trial publication-title: J. Infect. Dis. doi: 10.1086/650396 – volume: 4 start-page: 675 issue: 4 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b40 article-title: Final and peak epidemic sizes for SEIR models with quarantine and isolation publication-title: Math. Biosci. Eng. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.675 – volume: 198 start-page: 1339 issue: 10 year: 2018 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b54 article-title: Face masks reduce the release of Pseudomonas aeruginosa cough aerosols when worn for clinically relevant periods publication-title: Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201805-0823LE – volume: 151 start-page: 437 issue: 7 year: 2009 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b32 article-title: Facemasks and hand hygiene to prevent influenza transmission in households: A cluster randomized trial publication-title: Ann. Intern. Med. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-151-7-200910060-00142 – volume: 80 start-page: 401 issue: 4 year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b46 article-title: Characteristics of COVID-19 infection in Beijing publication-title: J. Infect. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.018 – year: 2020 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b8 article-title: First case of 2019 novel coronavirus in the United States publication-title: New Engl. J. Med. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001191 – volume: 81 start-page: 869 issue: 3 year: 2019 ident: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364_b61 article-title: The final size of a serious epidemic publication-title: Bull. Math. Biol. doi: 10.1007/s11538-018-00549-x |
| SSID | ssj0017116 |
| Score | 2.6875548 |
| Snippet | A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe... |
| SourceID | pubmedcentral proquest pubmed crossref elsevier |
| SourceType | Open Access Repository Aggregation Database Index Database Enrichment Source Publisher |
| StartPage | 108364 |
| SubjectTerms | Antiviral agents Antiviral drugs Cloth Communicable Disease Control - methods Communicable Disease Control - statistics & numerical data Computer simulation Contact tracing Contact Tracing - statistics & numerical data Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease transmission Epidemiology Face Face-mask Humans Isolation Masks Masks - statistics & numerical data Mathematical analysis Mathematical model Mathematical models Models, Theoretical Non-pharmaceutical intervention Pandemics Pandemics - prevention & control Pharmaceuticals Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control Public health Quarantine Quarantine - statistics & numerical data SARS-CoV-2 Social Isolation Social-distancing Viral diseases |
| Title | Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32360770 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2442616291 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2398161842 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7252217 |
| Volume | 325 |
| WOSCitedRecordID | wos000541263900004&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| journalDatabaseRights | – providerCode: PRVESC databaseName: Elsevier SD Freedom Collection Journals 2021 customDbUrl: eissn: 1879-3134 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0017116 issn: 0025-5564 databaseCode: AIEXJ dateStart: 19950101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://www.sciencedirect.com providerName: Elsevier |
| link | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwtV1bb9MwFLa6DiR4QDAYFMYUJMQDUlDi2LH9OKFODJWCRIf6FuXirCkhKelF48_wWzlOnEu3Mo0HXqI2tmO337FzzvHxdxB6LbEtY0cxXArimkRwywxCSk1ig_5LaYjtkq7p24iNx3w6FV96vd_1WZhNyrKMX16KxX-FGu4B2Oro7D_A3TwUbsBnAB2uADtcbwX8p4aIVdEANMSbdTBAeywSDH9zMdtyaSedCMhyHyFcq4iBtD5TBe9xAe02UnkcClDiN0mhPQfzHb0HiabKbAMVxxd5djHzU7-KNklBytbLdj_oLMjL8IJh5s-gg0bfT76XkWhFHZkWx-0Rtq9hvqoSWunk5V1PBpitddRrvfhyJuCdoJ2bcsc9vWI7mHbWXFsRbJOdr4PKMzF_9yNQzOy4jKjUdbept8efvdPz0cibDKeTN4ufpspKpnbvdYqWPbSPGRW8j_ZPzobTj80-FbPL5LrNKOt98zKC8Eqvf9N8rls2VwN0OxrP5CF6oE0V46QSsUeoJ7MDdLdKXvrrAN1voV4-RkUXeKMVOyOPDSgwKrFT366LnbEldkaeGa3YlY2V2Bml2BkdsXuCzk-Hk_cfTJ3PwwxBT1-Zga_I5gQLqB_EYHZwV2JXUl8lruVxFHMhKdSMCGEWjnBEbRfWETDgfS5YyCPnEPVhjPIZMmjoSBITKl3XIj6lAXcdl-LAjgLHZw4eIKv-r71Qk92rnCupV0c1zj2Ax1PweBU8A_S2abKomF5uqkxqAD09kSoV1APRu6nZUQ22p5cMKCfKjeFiYQ_Qq6YYVnm1dednMl9DHUdwldqCwC97WslGM0gHO67FmDVAbEtqmgqKQX67JEtmJZM8w2B-2ez5Lfp9ge61c_YI9VfFWr5Ed8LNKlkWx2iPTfmxnh1_AOh86aI |
| linkProvider | Elsevier |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Mathematical+assessment+of+the+impact+of+non-pharmaceutical+interventions+on+curtailing+the+2019+novel+Coronavirus&rft.jtitle=Mathematical+biosciences&rft.au=Ngonghala%2C+Calistus+N&rft.au=Iboi%2C+Enahoro&rft.au=Eikenberry%2C+Steffen&rft.au=Scotch%2C+Matthew&rft.date=2020-07-01&rft.issn=1879-3134&rft.eissn=1879-3134&rft.volume=325&rft.spage=108364&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016%2Fj.mbs.2020.108364&rft.externalDBID=NO_FULL_TEXT |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0025-5564&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0025-5564&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0025-5564&client=summon |