Multi-strain modeling of influenza vaccine effectiveness in older adults and its dependence on antigenic distance

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies seasonally due to host, virus and vaccine characteristics. To investigate how antigenic matching and dosage impact VE, we developed a mechanistic knowledge-based mathematical model. Immunization with a split vaccine is modeled for exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 27190 - 18
Main Authors: Urdy, Séverine, Hanke, Matthias, Toledo, Ana I., Ratto, Nicolas, Jacob, Evgueni, Peyronnet, Emmanuel, Gourlet, Jean-Baptiste, Chaves, Sandra S., Thommes, Edward, Coudeville, Laurent, Boissel, Jean-Pierre, Courcelles, Eulalie, Bruezière, Lara
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 08.11.2024
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects:
631/114/2390
631/114/2397
631/154/436/108
631/250/590
631/553/2700
692/699/255/1578
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Antigens, Viral - immunology
Cell activation
Cross-reactivity
Dosage
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Immunization
Immunogenicity
Immunological memory
Influenza
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - immunology
Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype - immunology
Influenza Vaccines - immunology
Influenza, Human - immunology
Influenza, Human - prevention & control
Influenza, Human - virology
Mathematical models
Models, Theoretical
multidisciplinary
Older people
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Seasonal variations
Vaccination
Vaccine Efficacy
Vaccines
Viruses
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies seasonally due to host, virus and vaccine characteristics. To investigate how antigenic matching and dosage impact VE, we developed a mechanistic knowledge-based mathematical model. Immunization with a split vaccine is modeled for exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H3N2 virus strains. The model accounts for cross-reactivity of immune cells elicited during previous immunizations with new antigens. We simulated vaccine effectiveness (sVE) of high dose (HD) versus standard dose (SD) vaccines in the older population, from 2011 to 2022. We find that sVE is highly dependent on antigenic matching and that higher dosage improves immunogenicity, activation and memory formation of immune cells. In alignment with clinical observations, the HD vaccine performs better than the SD vaccine in all simulations, supporting the use of the HD vaccine in the older population. This model could be adapted to predict the impact of alternative virus strain selection on clinical outcomes in future influenza seasons.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-72716-1