Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India

Aims/hypothesis We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy in metropolitan cities in India among the population aged 20 years or more, and their variation by sex, age and BMI. Methods A Markov simulation model was adopted to estimate age-, sex- and BMI-speci...

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Vydáno v:Diabetologia Ročník 64; číslo 3; s. 521 - 529
Hlavní autoři: Luhar, Shammi, Kondal, Dimple, Jones, Rebecca, Anjana, Ranjit M., Patel, Shivani A., Kinra, Sanjay, Clarke, Lynda, Ali, Mohammed K., Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Kadir, M. Masood, Tandon, Nikhil, Mohan, Viswanathan, Narayan, K. M. Venkat
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.03.2021
Springer Nature B.V
Témata:
Adult
Age
Age Distribution
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus
Diabetes Mellitus - diagnosis
Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology
Diabetes Mellitus - mortality
Disease-Free Survival
Female
Human Physiology
Humans
Incidence
India - epidemiology
Internal Medicine
Life Expectancy
Life span
Male
Markov Chains
Medical research
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Metabolic Diseases
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Obesity - epidemiology
Prevalence
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Sex
Sex Distribution
Time Factors
Urban Health
Women
Young Adult
India
Body mass index
Urban
Diabetes-free life expectancy
Lifetime risk
Diabetes
Metropolitan cities
India
ISSN:0012-186X, 1432-0428, 1432-0428
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Shrnutí:Aims/hypothesis We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy in metropolitan cities in India among the population aged 20 years or more, and their variation by sex, age and BMI. Methods A Markov simulation model was adopted to estimate age-, sex- and BMI-specific lifetime risk of developing diabetes and diabetes-free life expectancy. The main data inputs used were as follows: age-, sex- and BMI-specific incidence rates of diabetes in urban India taken from the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (2010–2018); age-, sex- and urban-specific rates of mortality from period lifetables reported by the Government of India (2014); and prevalence of diabetes from the Indian Council for Medical Research INdia DIABetes study (2008–2015). Results Lifetime risk (95% CI) of diabetes in 20-year-old men and women was 55.5 (51.6, 59.7)% and 64.6 (60.0, 69.5)%, respectively. Women generally had a higher lifetime risk across the lifespan. Remaining lifetime risk (95% CI) declined with age to 37.7 (30.1, 46.7)% at age 60 years among women and 27.5 (23.1, 32.4)% in men. Lifetime risk (95% CI) was highest among obese Indians: 86.0 (76.6, 91.5)% among 20-year-old women and 86.9 (75.4, 93.8)% among men. We identified considerably higher diabetes-free life expectancy at lower levels of BMI. Conclusions/interpretation Lifetime risk of diabetes in metropolitan cities in India is alarming across the spectrum of weight and rises dramatically with higher BMI. Prevention of diabetes among metropolitan Indians of all ages is an urgent national priority, particularly given the rapid increase in urban obesogenic environments across the country. Graphical abstract
Bibliografie:ObjectType-Article-1
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ISSN:0012-186X
1432-0428
1432-0428
DOI:10.1007/s00125-020-05330-1