Tracing the influence of land-use change on water quality and coral reefs using a Bayesian model

Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not...

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Vydáno v:Scientific reports Ročník 7; číslo 1; s. 4740 - 10
Hlavní autoři: Brown, Christopher J., Jupiter, Stacy D., Albert, Simon, Klein, Carissa J., Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Maina, Joseph M., Mumby, Peter, Olley, Jon, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Tulloch, Vivitskaia, Wenger, Amelia
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: London Nature Publishing Group UK 06.07.2017
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Témata:
631/158/1144
631/158/2446/837
704/829/2737
Animals
Anthozoa - growth & development
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian analysis
Coastal ecosystems
Coastal waters
Coastal zone
Coastal zone management
Conservation of Natural Resources - methods
Coral Reefs
Ecosystem
Environmental Monitoring - methods
Fiji
Humanities and Social Sciences
Land use
Mathematical models
multidisciplinary
Oceans
Oceans and Seas
open climate campaign
Pollution sources
Satellite Imagery - statistics & numerical data
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Water Quality
Fiji
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
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Shrnutí:Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not available for many of the world’s coral reef regions that may have severe water quality issues. Here we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that uses freely available satellite data to infer the connection between land-uses in catchments and water clarity in coastal oceans. We apply the model to estimate the influence of land-use change on water clarity in Fiji. We tested the model’s predictions against underwater surveys, finding that predictions of poor water quality are consistent with observations of high siltation and low coverage of sediment-sensitive coral genera. The model thus provides a means to link land-use change to declines in coastal water quality.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-05031-7