Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century

The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under...

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Vydané v:Scientific reports Ročník 8; číslo 1; s. 1 - 12
Hlavní autori: Serra-Diaz, Josep M., Maxwell, Charles, Lucash, Melissa S., Scheller, Robert M., Laflower, Danelle M., Miller, Adam D., Tepley, Alan J., Epstein, Howard E., Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J., Thompson, Jonathan R.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: London Nature Publishing Group UK 30.04.2018
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Predmet:
631/158/1144
631/158/2165
631/158/2454
631/158/2465
704/158/2454
Biodiversity and Ecology
Chaparral
Climate change
Coniferous forests
Coniferous trees
Dominance
Environmental impact
Environmental Sciences
Forest ecosystems
Forests
Global Changes
Humanities and Social Sciences
Landscape
multidisciplinary
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Temperate forests
Terrestrial ecosystems
Trees
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
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Abstract The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949–2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.
AbstractList The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949–2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.
Abstract The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949–2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.
The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949-2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently, current forest extent may not reflect current climatic patterns. In contrast with these lagged responses, abrupt transitions in forests under climate change may occur in environments where alternative vegetation states are influenced by disturbances, such as fire. The Klamath forest landscape (northern California and southwest Oregon, USA) is currently dominated by high biomass, biodiverse temperate coniferous forests, but climate change could disrupt the mechanisms promoting forest stability (e.g. growth, regeneration and fire tolerance). Using a landscape simulation model, we estimate that about one-third of the Klamath forest landscape (500,000 ha) could transition from conifer-dominated forest to shrub/hardwood chaparral, triggered by increased fire activity coupled with lower post-fire conifer establishment. Such shifts were widespread under the warmer climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5) but were surprisingly prevalent under the climate of 1949-2010, reflecting the joint influences of recent warming trends and the legacy of fire suppression that may have enhanced conifer dominance. Our results demonstrate that major forest ecosystem shifts should be expected when climate change disrupts key stabilizing feedbacks that maintain the dominance of long-lived, slowly regenerating trees.
ArticleNumber 6749
Author Tepley, Alan J.
Maxwell, Charles
Epstein, Howard E.
Lucash, Melissa S.
Serra-Diaz, Josep M.
Miller, Adam D.
Laflower, Danelle M.
Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.
Scheller, Robert M.
Thompson, Jonathan R.
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Josep M.
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  surname: Serra-Diaz
  fullname: Serra-Diaz, Josep M.
  email: serradiaz@fas.harvard.edu
  organization: Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Section of Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, UMR Silva, AgroParisTech, Université de Lorraine, INRA
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Charles
  surname: Maxwell
  fullname: Maxwell, Charles
  organization: Dept. Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Melissa S.
  surname: Lucash
  fullname: Lucash, Melissa S.
  organization: Department of Geography, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751
– sequence: 4
  givenname: Robert M.
  surname: Scheller
  fullname: Scheller, Robert M.
  organization: Dept. Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University
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  givenname: Danelle M.
  surname: Laflower
  fullname: Laflower, Danelle M.
  organization: Harvard Forest, Harvard University
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  givenname: Adam D.
  surname: Miller
  fullname: Miller, Adam D.
  organization: Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute
– sequence: 7
  givenname: Alan J.
  orcidid: 0000-0002-5701-9613
  surname: Tepley
  fullname: Tepley, Alan J.
  organization: Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute
– sequence: 8
  givenname: Howard E.
  surname: Epstein
  fullname: Epstein, Howard E.
  organization: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia
– sequence: 9
  givenname: Kristina J.
  orcidid: 0000-0001-8461-9713
  surname: Anderson-Teixeira
  fullname: Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.
  organization: Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
– sequence: 10
  givenname: Jonathan R.
  surname: Thompson
  fullname: Thompson, Jonathan R.
  organization: Harvard Forest, Harvard University
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Snippet The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees. Consequently,...
Abstract The impacts of climatic changes on forests may appear gradually on time scales of years to centuries due to the long generation times of trees....
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704/158/2454
Biodiversity and Ecology
Chaparral
Climate change
Coniferous forests
Coniferous trees
Dominance
Environmental impact
Environmental Sciences
Forest ecosystems
Forests
Global Changes
Humanities and Social Sciences
Landscape
multidisciplinary
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Temperate forests
Terrestrial ecosystems
Trees
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Title Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century
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