Climate-informed environmental inflows to revive a drying lake facing meteorological and anthropogenic droughts

The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of...

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Vydané v:	Environmental research letters Ročník 13; číslo 8; s. 84010 - 84021
Hlavní autori:	Alborzi, Aneseh, Mirchi, Ali, Moftakhari, Hamed, Mallakpour, Iman, Alian, Sara, Nazemi, Ali, Hassanzadeh, Elmira, Mazdiyasni, Omid, Ashraf, Samaneh, Madani, Kaveh, Norouzi, Hamid, Azarderakhsh, Marzi, Mehran, Ali, Sadegh, Mojtaba, Castelletti, Andrea, AghaKouchak, Amir
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Bristol IOP Publishing 2018
Predmet:	anthropogenic drought Anthropogenic factors Climate climate variability and change Climatic conditions Compounding effects Drought Drying environmental inflow requirement Hydrology Inflow Lake Urmia Recovery time Reservoir capacity Resource management restoration Saline environments Salt lakes Sea level Sustainable development sustainable water resources management Water management Water resources Water resources management Lake Urmia
ISSN:	1748-9326, 1748-9326
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Abstract	The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of this paper is to set a framework for deriving dynamic, climate-informed environmental inflows for drying lakes considering both meteorological/climatic and anthropogenic conditions. We report on the compounding effects of meteorological drought and unsustainable water resource management that contributed to Lake Urmia's contemporary environmental catastrophe. Using rich datasets of hydrologic attributes, water demands and withdrawals, as well as water management infrastructure (i.e. reservoir capacity and operating policies), we provide a quantitative assessment of the basin's water resources, demonstrating that Lake Urmia reached a tipping point in the early 2000s. The lake level failed to rebound to its designated ecological threshold (1274 m above sea level) during a relatively normal hydro-period immediately after the drought of record (1998-2002). The collapse was caused by a marked overshoot of the basin's hydrologic capacity due to growing anthropogenic drought in the face of extreme climatological stressors. We offer a dynamic environmental inflow plan for different climate conditions (dry, wet and near normal), combined with three representative water withdrawal scenarios. Assuming effective implementation of the proposed 40% reduction in the current water withdrawals, the required environmental inflows range from 2900 million cubic meters per year (mcm yr−1) during dry conditions to 5400 mcm yr−1 during wet periods with the average being 4100 mcm yr−1. Finally, for different environmental inflow scenarios, we estimate the expected recovery time for re-establishing the ecological level of Lake Urmia.
AbstractList	The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of this paper is to set a framework for deriving dynamic, climate-informed environmental inflows for drying lakes considering both meteorological/climatic and anthropogenic conditions. We report on the compounding effects of meteorological drought and unsustainable water resource management that contributed to Lake Urmia's contemporary environmental catastrophe. Using rich datasets of hydrologic attributes, water demands and withdrawals, as well as water management infrastructure (i.e. reservoir capacity and operating policies), we provide a quantitative assessment of the basin's water resources, demonstrating that Lake Urmia reached a tipping point in the early 2000s. The lake level failed to rebound to its designated ecological threshold (1274 m above sea level) during a relatively normal hydro-period immediately after the drought of record (1998-2002). The collapse was caused by a marked overshoot of the basin's hydrologic capacity due to growing anthropogenic drought in the face of extreme climatological stressors. We offer a dynamic environmental inflow plan for different climate conditions (dry, wet and near normal), combined with three representative water withdrawal scenarios. Assuming effective implementation of the proposed 40% reduction in the current water withdrawals, the required environmental inflows range from 2900 million cubic meters per year (mcm yr−1) during dry conditions to 5400 mcm yr−1 during wet periods with the average being 4100 mcm yr−1. Finally, for different environmental inflow scenarios, we estimate the expected recovery time for re-establishing the ecological level of Lake Urmia. The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of this paper is to set a framework for deriving dynamic, climate-informed environmental inflows for drying lakes considering both meteorological/climatic and anthropogenic conditions. We report on the compounding effects of meteorological drought and unsustainable water resource management that contributed to Lake Urmia’s contemporary environmental catastrophe. Using rich datasets of hydrologic attributes, water demands and withdrawals, as well as water management infrastructure (i.e. reservoir capacity and operating policies), we provide a quantitative assessment of the basin’s water resources, demonstrating that Lake Urmia reached a tipping point in the early 2000s. The lake level failed to rebound to its designated ecological threshold (1274 m above sea level) during a relatively normal hydro-period immediately after the drought of record (1998–2002). The collapse was caused by a marked overshoot of the basin’s hydrologic capacity due to growing anthropogenic drought in the face of extreme climatological stressors. We offer a dynamic environmental inflow plan for different climate conditions (dry, wet and near normal), combined with three representative water withdrawal scenarios. Assuming effective implementation of the proposed 40% reduction in the current water withdrawals, the required environmental inflows range from 2900 million cubic meters per year (mcm yr ^−1 ) during dry conditions to 5400 mcm yr ^−1 during wet periods with the average being 4100 mcm yr ^−1 . Finally, for different environmental inflow scenarios, we estimate the expected recovery time for re-establishing the ecological level of Lake Urmia. The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of this paper is to set a framework for deriving dynamic, climate-informed environmental inflows for drying lakes considering both meteorological/climatic and anthropogenic conditions. We report on the compounding effects of meteorological drought and unsustainable water resource management that contributed to Lake Urmia's contemporary environmental catastrophe. Using rich datasets of hydrologic attributes, water demands and withdrawals, as well as water management infrastructure (i.e. reservoir capacity and operating policies), we provide a quantitative assessment of the basin's water resources, demonstrating that Lake Urmia reached a tipping point in the early 2000s. The lake level failed to rebound to its designated ecological threshold (1274 m above sea level) during a relatively normal hydro-period immediately after the drought of record (1998-2002). The collapse was caused by a marked overshoot of the basin's hydrologic capacity due to growing anthropogenic drought in the face of extreme climatological stressors. We offer a dynamic environmental inflow plan for different climate conditions (dry, wet and near normal), combined with three representative water withdrawal scenarios. Assuming effective implementation of the proposed 40% reduction in the current water withdrawals, the required environmental inflows range from 2900 million cubic meters per year (mcm yr(-1)) during dry conditions to 5400 mcm yr(-1) during wet periods with the average being 4100 mcm yr(-1). Finally, for different environmental inflow scenarios, we estimate the expected recovery time for re-establishing the ecological level of Lake Urmia.
Author	Ashraf, Samaneh Alian, Sara Madani, Kaveh Mallakpour, Iman AghaKouchak, Amir Hassanzadeh, Elmira Castelletti, Andrea Nazemi, Ali Norouzi, Hamid Alborzi, Aneseh Mehran, Ali Sadegh, Mojtaba Mirchi, Ali Azarderakhsh, Marzi Moftakhari, Hamed Mazdiyasni, Omid
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Snippet	The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of... The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of...
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SubjectTerms	anthropogenic drought Anthropogenic factors Climate climate variability and change Climatic conditions Compounding effects Drought Drying environmental inflow requirement Hydrology Inflow Lake Urmia Recovery time Reservoir capacity Resource management restoration Saline environments Salt lakes Sea level Sustainable development sustainable water resources management Water management Water resources Water resources management
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Title	Climate-informed environmental inflows to revive a drying lake facing meteorological and anthropogenic droughts
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