Risk of biodiversity collapse under climate change in the Afro-Arabian region

For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scientific reports Jg. 9; H. 1; S. 955
Hauptverfasser: Soultan, Alaaeldin, Wikelski, Martin, Safi, Kamran
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: London Nature Publishing Group UK 30.01.2019
Nature Publishing Group
Schlagworte:
631/158/1144
631/158/670
631/158/672
Biodiversity
Climate change
Coastal zone
Conservation
Conservation areas
Endangered & extinct species
Endangered species
Endemic species
Humanities and Social Sciences
Mammals
multidisciplinary
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Species extinction
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
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Zusammenfassung:For 107 endemic mammal species in the Afro-Arabian region, Sahara-Sahel and Arabian Desert, we used ensemble species distribution models to: (1) identify the hotspot areas for conservation, (2) assess the potential impact of the projected climate change on the distribution of the focal species, and (3) assign IUCN threat categories for the focal species according to the predicted changes in their potential distribution range. We identified two main hotspot areas for endemic mammals: the Sinai and its surrounding coastal area in the East, and the Mediterranean Coast around Morocco in the West. Alarmingly, our results indicate that about 17% of the endemic mammals in the Afro-Arabian region under the current climate change scenarios could go extinct before 2050. Overall, a substantial number of the endemic species will change from the IUCN threat category “Least Concern” to “Critically Endangered” or “Extinct” in the coming decades. Accordingly, we call for implementing an urgent proactive conservation action for these endemic species, particularly those that face a high risk of extinction in the next few years. The results of our study provide conservation managers and practitioners with the required information for implementing an effective conservation plan to protect the biodiversity of the Afro-Arabian region.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-37851-6