A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish a...

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Published in:PloS one Vol. 11; no. 2; p. e0146756
Main Authors: Hare, Jonathan A., Morrison, Wendy E., Nelson, Mark W., Stachura, Megan M., Teeters, Eric J., Griffis, Roger B., Alexander, Michael A., Scott, James D., Alade, Larry, Bell, Richard J., Chute, Antonie S., Curti, Kiersten L., Curtis, Tobey H., Kircheis, Daniel, Kocik, John F., Lucey, Sean M., McCandless, Camilla T., Milke, Lisa M., Richardson, David E., Robillard, Eric, Walsh, Harvey J., McManus, M. Conor, Marancik, Katrin E., Griswold, Carolyn A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States Public Library of Science 03.02.2016
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects:
Abundance
Animals
Atlantic Ocean
Benthic fauna
Biology and Life Sciences
Climate Change
Climate effects
Commercial fishing
Conservation
Continental shelves
Earth Sciences
Ecological Parameter Monitoring
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Ecosystems
Endangered & extinct species
Environmental assessment
Estuaries
Fish
Fisheries
Fisheries management
Fishery management
Fishes
Fishing
Forage
Forages
Invertebrates
Laboratories
Marine fish
Marine fishes
Mid-Atlantic Region
New England
open climate campaign
Population
Population Dynamics
Productivity
Protected species
Qualitative analysis
Reproduction
Science
Variability
Mid-Atlantic Region
Atlantic Ocean
New England
Rhode Island
Northeastern states
United States > US
Colorado
Massachusetts
ISSN:1932-6203, 1932-6203
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.
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Current address: Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, 215 S Ferry Rd, Narragansett, RI 02882, United States of America
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Current address: The Nature Conservancy, University of Rhode Island Bay Campus, Narragansett, RI 02882, United States of America
Current address: ECS Federal, Inc., Under contract to the NOAA NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA 98112, United States of America
Conceived and designed the experiments: JAH WEM MWN MMS EJT RBG MAA JDS MCM KEM CAG. Performed the experiments: JAH WEM MWN MMS EJT RBG MAA JDS LA RJB ASC KLC THC DK JFK SML CTM LMM DER ER HJW. Analyzed the data: JAH WEM MWN MMS EJT RBG MAA JDS MCM KEM CAG. Wrote the paper: JAH WEM MWN MMS EJT RBG MAA JDS LA RJB ASC KLC THC DK JFK SML CTM LMM DER ER HJW MCM KEM CAG.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0146756