Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common exper...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Geophysical research letters Jg. 47; H. 14; S. e2020GL088662 - n/a
Hauptverfasser:	Roberts, Malcolm John, Camp, Joanne, Seddon, Jon, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Hodges, Kevin, Vannière, Benoît, Mecking, Jenny, Haarsma, Rein, Bellucci, Alessio, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Caron, Louis‐Philippe, Chauvin, Fabrice, Terray, Laurent, Valcke, Sophie, Moine, Marie‐Pierre, Putrasahan, Dian, Roberts, Christopher D., Senan, Retish, Zarzycki, Colin, Ullrich, Paul, Yamada, Yohei, Mizuta, Ryo, Kodama, Chihiro, Fu, Dan, Zhang, Qiuying, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Rosenbloom, Nan, Wang, Hong, Wu, Lixin
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28.07.2020 American Geophysical Union (AGU) John Wiley and Sons Inc Wiley
Schlagworte:	Algorithms Atmospheric models Atmospheric Processes Atmospheric Science Climate and Interannual Variability Climate change Climate Change and Variability Climate models Climate Variability Climatology CMIP6 Computational Geophysics Computer simulation Cyclones Cyclonic activity Decadal Ocean Variability Design of experiments Distribution Environmental impact ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Experimental design Extreme Events Frequency dependence future change Global Change Global climate Global Climate Models high resolution Hurricanes Hydrology Identification methods Informatics Mathematical Geophysics Mathematical models model bias Modeling Natural Hazards Numerical Modeling Numerical Solutions Ocean basins Oceanography: General Oceanography: Physical Oceans Paleoceanography Performance assessment Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering Research Letter Research Letters Spatial distribution Storms Tracking tracking algorithms Tropical climate Tropical cyclone activity Tropical cyclone frequencies Tropical cyclone intensities Tropical Cyclones Wind speed Indian Ocean
ISSN:	0094-8276, 1944-8007
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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Abstract	Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. Plain Language Summary Tropical cyclones pose great risks to individuals and societies, particularly in terms of their local impacts, and how such risks may change in the future is a key question. In this work we use a common experimental framework with seven different state‐of‐the‐art global climate models, together with two different methods of identifying tropical cyclones. We find that the simulation of tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in some models approaches observed values with the model grid spacings of 20–50 km. Future projections to 2050 suggest that activity will generally decline in the South Indian Ocean while a more mixed picture is revealed in other regions. Key Points Biases in tropical cyclone distribution, frequency, and intensity are generally reduced in models at 25 km resolution Northern Hemisphere basins show mixed responses to future forcing, while Southern Indian Ocean activity projected to decline Future changes in 10 m wind speed in coupled models are mixed, and models with lower bias suggest small increases
AbstractList	Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. Tropical cyclones pose great risks to individuals and societies, particularly in terms of their local impacts, and how such risks may change in the future is a key question. In this work we use a common experimental framework with seven different state‐of‐the‐art global climate models, together with two different methods of identifying tropical cyclones. We find that the simulation of tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in some models approaches observed values with the model grid spacings of 20–50 km. Future projections to 2050 suggest that activity will generally decline in the South Indian Ocean while a more mixed picture is revealed in other regions. Biases in tropical cyclone distribution, frequency, and intensity are generally reduced in models at 25 km resolution Northern Hemisphere basins show mixed responses to future forcing, while Southern Indian Ocean activity projected to decline Future changes in 10 m wind speed in coupled models are mixed, and models with lower bias suggest small increases Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. Plain Language Summary Tropical cyclones pose great risks to individuals and societies, particularly in terms of their local impacts, and how such risks may change in the future is a key question. In this work we use a common experimental framework with seven different state‐of‐the‐art global climate models, together with two different methods of identifying tropical cyclones. We find that the simulation of tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in some models approaches observed values with the model grid spacings of 20–50 km. Future projections to 2050 suggest that activity will generally decline in the South Indian Ocean while a more mixed picture is revealed in other regions. Key Points Biases in tropical cyclone distribution, frequency, and intensity are generally reduced in models at 25 km resolution Northern Hemisphere basins show mixed responses to future forcing, while Southern Indian Ocean activity projected to decline Future changes in 10 m wind speed in coupled models are mixed, and models with lower bias suggest small increases Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. Biases in tropical cyclone distribution, frequency, and intensity are generally reduced in models at 25 km resolutionNorthern Hemisphere basins show mixed responses to future forcing, while Southern Indian Ocean activity projected to declineFuture changes in 10 m wind speed in coupled models are mixed, and models with lower bias suggest small increases Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.
Author	Ullrich, Paul Senan, Retish Danabasoglu, Gokhan Mecking, Jenny Scoccimarro, Enrico Valcke, Sophie Roberts, Christopher D. Zarzycki, Colin Seddon, Jon Mizuta, Ryo Rosenbloom, Nan Vannière, Benoît Wu, Lixin Bellucci, Alessio Terray, Laurent Moine, Marie‐Pierre Kodama, Chihiro Caron, Louis‐Philippe Zhang, Qiuying Yamada, Yohei Hodges, Kevin Vidale, Pier Luigi Putrasahan, Dian Wang, Hong Haarsma, Rein Fu, Dan Roberts, Malcolm John Camp, Joanne Chauvin, Fabrice
AuthorAffiliation	13 Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California, Davis Davis CA USA 19 Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) Qingdao China 17 International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP) College Station TX USA 6 Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Bologna Italy 18 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CA USA 8 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM‐CERFACS) Toulouse France 7 Barcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC) Barcelona Spain 5 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) De Bilt The Netherlands 11 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reading UK 1 Met Office Exeter UK 10 Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI‐M) Hamburg Germany 2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading U
AuthorAffiliation_xml	– name: 17 International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP) College Station TX USA – name: 7 Barcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC) Barcelona Spain – name: 5 Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) De Bilt The Netherlands – name: 1 Met Office Exeter UK – name: 12 Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Penn State University State College PA USA – name: 3 Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton University of Southampton Southampton UK – name: 9 CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse France – name: 18 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CA USA – name: 6 Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Bologna Italy – name: 14 JAMSTEC Tokyo Japan – name: 4 Now at National Oceanography Centre Southampton UK – name: 8 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM‐CERFACS) Toulouse France – name: 2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UK – name: 13 Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California, Davis Davis CA USA – name: 19 Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) Qingdao China – name: 11 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reading UK – name: 15 Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Tsukuba Japan – name: 16 Department of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USA – name: 10 Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI‐M) Hamburg Germany
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Malcolm John orcidid: 0000-0001-6128-6979 surname: Roberts fullname: Roberts, Malcolm John email: malcolm.roberts@metoffice.gov.uk organization: Met Office – sequence: 2 givenname: Joanne orcidid: 0000-0002-4567-9622 surname: Camp fullname: Camp, Joanne organization: Met Office – sequence: 3 givenname: Jon orcidid: 0000-0003-1302-1049 surname: Seddon fullname: Seddon, Jon organization: Met Office – sequence: 4 givenname: Pier Luigi orcidid: 0000-0002-1800-8460 surname: Vidale fullname: Vidale, Pier Luigi organization: University of Reading – sequence: 5 givenname: Kevin orcidid: 0000-0003-0894-229X surname: Hodges fullname: Hodges, Kevin organization: University of Reading – sequence: 6 givenname: Benoît orcidid: 0000-0001-8600-400X surname: Vannière fullname: Vannière, Benoît organization: University of Reading – sequence: 7 givenname: Jenny orcidid: 0000-0002-1834-1845 surname: Mecking fullname: Mecking, Jenny organization: Now at National Oceanography Centre – sequence: 8 givenname: Rein orcidid: 0000-0001-7171-2687 surname: Haarsma fullname: Haarsma, Rein organization: Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) – sequence: 9 givenname: Alessio orcidid: 0000-0003-3766-1921 surname: Bellucci fullname: Bellucci, Alessio organization: Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) – sequence: 10 givenname: Enrico orcidid: 0000-0001-7987-4744 surname: Scoccimarro fullname: Scoccimarro, Enrico organization: Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) – sequence: 11 givenname: Louis‐Philippe orcidid: 0000-0001-5221-0147 surname: Caron fullname: Caron, Louis‐Philippe organization: Barcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC) – sequence: 12 givenname: Fabrice orcidid: 0000-0001-6071-7212 surname: Chauvin fullname: Chauvin, Fabrice organization: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM‐CERFACS) – sequence: 13 givenname: Laurent orcidid: 0000-0001-5512-7074 surname: Terray fullname: Terray, Laurent organization: CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS – sequence: 14 givenname: Sophie orcidid: 0000-0002-0438-5978 surname: Valcke fullname: Valcke, Sophie organization: CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS – sequence: 15 givenname: Marie‐Pierre surname: Moine fullname: Moine, Marie‐Pierre organization: CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS – sequence: 16 givenname: Dian orcidid: 0000-0002-6485-5601 surname: Putrasahan fullname: Putrasahan, Dian organization: Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI‐M) – sequence: 17 givenname: Christopher D. orcidid: 0000-0002-2958-6637 surname: Roberts fullname: Roberts, Christopher D. organization: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) – sequence: 18 givenname: Retish orcidid: 0000-0003-1949-1893 surname: Senan fullname: Senan, Retish organization: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) – sequence: 19 givenname: Colin orcidid: 0000-0001-5731-042X surname: Zarzycki fullname: Zarzycki, Colin organization: Penn State University – sequence: 20 givenname: Paul orcidid: 0000-0003-4118-4590 surname: Ullrich fullname: Ullrich, Paul organization: University of California, Davis – sequence: 21 givenname: Yohei orcidid: 0000-0001-6092-9944 surname: Yamada fullname: Yamada, Yohei organization: JAMSTEC – sequence: 22 givenname: Ryo orcidid: 0000-0003-4130-9189 surname: Mizuta fullname: Mizuta, Ryo organization: Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) – sequence: 23 givenname: Chihiro orcidid: 0000-0001-8252-7479 surname: Kodama fullname: Kodama, Chihiro organization: JAMSTEC – sequence: 24 givenname: Dan orcidid: 0000-0001-6423-6117 surname: Fu fullname: Fu, Dan organization: International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP) – sequence: 25 givenname: Qiuying orcidid: 0000-0001-8546-6202 surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Qiuying organization: International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP) – sequence: 26 givenname: Gokhan orcidid: 0000-0003-4676-2732 surname: Danabasoglu fullname: Danabasoglu, Gokhan organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) – sequence: 27 givenname: Nan orcidid: 0000-0001-7389-3346 surname: Rosenbloom fullname: Rosenbloom, Nan organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) – sequence: 28 givenname: Hong orcidid: 0000-0003-2289-8862 surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Hong organization: Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) – sequence: 29 givenname: Lixin orcidid: 0000-0002-4694-5531 surname: Wu fullname: Wu, Lixin organization: Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM)
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Snippet	Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In... Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude...
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SubjectTerms	Algorithms Atmospheric models Atmospheric Processes Atmospheric Science Climate and Interannual Variability Climate change Climate Change and Variability Climate models Climate Variability Climatology CMIP6 Computational Geophysics Computer simulation Cyclones Cyclonic activity Decadal Ocean Variability Design of experiments Distribution Environmental impact ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Experimental design Extreme Events Frequency dependence future change Global Change Global climate Global Climate Models high resolution Hurricanes Hydrology Identification methods Informatics Mathematical Geophysics Mathematical models model bias Modeling Natural Hazards Numerical Modeling Numerical Solutions Ocean basins Oceanography: General Oceanography: Physical Oceans Paleoceanography Performance assessment Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering Research Letter Research Letters Spatial distribution Storms Tracking tracking algorithms Tropical climate Tropical cyclone activity Tropical cyclone frequencies Tropical cyclone intensities Tropical Cyclones Wind speed
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Title	Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
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