Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common exper...

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Vydáno v:	Geophysical research letters Ročník 47; číslo 14; s. e2020GL088662 - n/a
Hlavní autoři:	Roberts, Malcolm John, Camp, Joanne, Seddon, Jon, Vidale, Pier Luigi, Hodges, Kevin, Vannière, Benoît, Mecking, Jenny, Haarsma, Rein, Bellucci, Alessio, Scoccimarro, Enrico, Caron, Louis‐Philippe, Chauvin, Fabrice, Terray, Laurent, Valcke, Sophie, Moine, Marie‐Pierre, Putrasahan, Dian, Roberts, Christopher D., Senan, Retish, Zarzycki, Colin, Ullrich, Paul, Yamada, Yohei, Mizuta, Ryo, Kodama, Chihiro, Fu, Dan, Zhang, Qiuying, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Rosenbloom, Nan, Wang, Hong, Wu, Lixin
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28.07.2020 American Geophysical Union (AGU) John Wiley and Sons Inc Wiley
Témata:	Algorithms Atmospheric models Atmospheric Processes Atmospheric Science Climate and Interannual Variability Climate change Climate Change and Variability Climate models Climate Variability Climatology CMIP6 Computational Geophysics Computer simulation Cyclones Cyclonic activity Decadal Ocean Variability Design of experiments Distribution Environmental impact ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Experimental design Extreme Events Frequency dependence future change Global Change Global climate Global Climate Models high resolution Hurricanes Hydrology Identification methods Informatics Mathematical Geophysics Mathematical models model bias Modeling Natural Hazards Numerical Modeling Numerical Solutions Ocean basins Oceanography: General Oceanography: Physical Oceans Paleoceanography Performance assessment Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering Research Letter Research Letters Spatial distribution Storms Tracking tracking algorithms Tropical climate Tropical cyclone activity Tropical cyclone frequencies Tropical cyclone intensities Tropical Cyclones Wind speed Indian Ocean
ISSN:	0094-8276, 1944-8007
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Popis
Shrnutí:	Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. Plain Language Summary Tropical cyclones pose great risks to individuals and societies, particularly in terms of their local impacts, and how such risks may change in the future is a key question. In this work we use a common experimental framework with seven different state‐of‐the‐art global climate models, together with two different methods of identifying tropical cyclones. We find that the simulation of tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in some models approaches observed values with the model grid spacings of 20–50 km. Future projections to 2050 suggest that activity will generally decline in the South Indian Ocean while a more mixed picture is revealed in other regions. Key Points Biases in tropical cyclone distribution, frequency, and intensity are generally reduced in models at 25 km resolution Northern Hemisphere basins show mixed responses to future forcing, while Southern Indian Ocean activity projected to decline Future changes in 10 m wind speed in coupled models are mixed, and models with lower bias suggest small increases
Bibliografie:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) USDOE Office of Science (SC) SC0016605; 727852; NNX16AG62G; JPMXD0717935457; 1852977 European Research Council (ERC) National Science Foundation (NSF) Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)
ISSN:	0094-8276 1944-8007
DOI:	10.1029/2020GL088662