The nonlinear feedback dynamics of asymmetric political polarization

Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymme...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 118; no. 50
Main Authors: Leonard, Naomi Ehrich, Lipsitz, Keena, Bizyaeva, Anastasia, Franci, Alessio, Lelkes, Yphtach
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 14.12.2021
Subjects:
public opinion
bifurcations
political elites
political polarization
nonlinear dynamics
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
Online Access:Get more information
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Summary:Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2102149118