The nonlinear feedback dynamics of asymmetric political polarization
Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymme...
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| Vydáno v: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 118; číslo 50 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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United States
14.12.2021
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| ISSN: | 1091-6490, 1091-6490 |
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| Abstract | Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it. |
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| AbstractList | Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it. Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it. |
| Author | Franci, Alessio Leonard, Naomi Ehrich Lipsitz, Keena Lelkes, Yphtach Bizyaeva, Anastasia |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Naomi Ehrich orcidid: 0000-0002-5328-3871 surname: Leonard fullname: Leonard, Naomi Ehrich email: naomi@princeton.edu, keena.lipsitz@qc.cuny.edu organization: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; naomi@princeton.edu keena.lipsitz@qc.cuny.edu – sequence: 2 givenname: Keena orcidid: 0000-0002-9192-836X surname: Lipsitz fullname: Lipsitz, Keena email: naomi@princeton.edu, keena.lipsitz@qc.cuny.edu organization: Department of Political Science, Queens College and The Graduate Center, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367; naomi@princeton.edu keena.lipsitz@qc.cuny.edu – sequence: 3 givenname: Anastasia orcidid: 0000-0003-0728-9655 surname: Bizyaeva fullname: Bizyaeva, Anastasia organization: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 – sequence: 4 givenname: Alessio orcidid: 0000-0002-3911-625X surname: Franci fullname: Franci, Alessio organization: Department of Mathematics, National Autonomous University of Mexico, 04510 Mexico City, Mexico; and – sequence: 5 givenname: Yphtach orcidid: 0000-0003-1805-056X surname: Lelkes fullname: Lelkes, Yphtach organization: Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 |
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| Keywords | public opinion bifurcations political elites political polarization nonlinear dynamics |
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