The nonlinear feedback dynamics of asymmetric political polarization

Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymme...

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Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 118; no. 50
Main Authors: Leonard, Naomi Ehrich, Lipsitz, Keena, Bizyaeva, Anastasia, Franci, Alessio, Lelkes, Yphtach
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 14.12.2021
Subjects:
public opinion
bifurcations
political elites
political polarization
nonlinear dynamics
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
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Abstract Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.
AbstractList Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.
Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.
Author Franci, Alessio
Leonard, Naomi Ehrich
Lipsitz, Keena
Lelkes, Yphtach
Bizyaeva, Anastasia
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  surname: Leonard
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  organization: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; naomi@princeton.edu keena.lipsitz@qc.cuny.edu
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  givenname: Anastasia
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  orcidid: 0000-0003-1805-056X
  surname: Lelkes
  fullname: Lelkes, Yphtach
  organization: Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104
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bifurcations
political elites
political polarization
nonlinear dynamics
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