The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

•We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability.•We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability.•Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability.•Changes in diet...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global environmental change Vol. 58; no. C; p. 101944
Main Authors: Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J.S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P.C., Smith, P.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2019
Elsevier Science Ltd
Elsevier
Subjects:
Africa
Agricultural expansion
Agricultural land
Agricultural production
Agricultural wastes
Agriculture
Availability
China
economic productivity
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Europe
Food
Food consumption
Food production
Food security
Food waste
Grass
Grasses
Insecurity
issues and policy
Land loss
Land use
Meat
meat consumption
Middle East
population growth
Production
Productivity
Reduction
risk
Risk reduction
Scarcity
Shared socio-economic pathways
Uncertainty
Water
Water availability
Water scarcity
water shortages
Water supply
Middle East
China
Europe
Africa
Shared socio-economic pathways
Water availability
Food security
Land use
ISSN:0959-3780, 1872-9495
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Summary:•We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability.•We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability.•Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability.•Changes in diet and waste reduction offer a buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.
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USDOE
NE/M021327/1; AC05-76RL01830
PNNL-SA-134809
ISSN:0959-3780
1872-9495
DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944