The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

•We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability.•We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability.•Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability.•Changes in diet...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Global environmental change Jg. 58; H. C; S. 101944
Hauptverfasser:	Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J.S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P.C., Smith, P.
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2019 Elsevier Science Ltd Elsevier
Schlagworte:	Africa Agricultural expansion Agricultural land Agricultural production Agricultural wastes Agriculture Availability China economic productivity ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Europe Food Food consumption Food production Food security Food waste Grass Grasses Insecurity issues and policy Land loss Land use Meat meat consumption Middle East population growth Production Productivity Reduction risk Risk reduction Scarcity Shared socio-economic pathways Uncertainty Water Water availability Water scarcity water shortages Water supply Middle East China Europe Africa Shared socio-economic pathways Water availability Food security Land use
ISSN:	0959-3780, 1872-9495
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Abstract	•We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability.•We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability.•Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability.•Changes in diet and waste reduction offer a buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.
AbstractList	With a rapidly expanding population and climate change having an impact, pressures on food production systems are expected to increase in coming decades. To meet current demand, it is estimated that over one third of the earth’s land surface is used as cropland or pastures (FAO, 2016b). Although management intensification, such as increasing fertiliser application rates (FAO, 2014b), has led to more productive systems, much of this has been at the expense of the environment, including increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as nitrous oxide (Alexandratos and Buinsma, 2012). Management strategies that aim to achieve high N use efficiencies (Wang et al., 2017) and closing of crop yield gaps have been proposed as ways of alleviating pressures on food production systems (Foley et al., 2011; Mueller et al., 2012). However the net benefits these strategies is predicated on environments that are not resource limited. The aim of this study, therefore, is to combine the projections of changes in water scarcity with the projected areas of future agricultural land, to identify the potential regional vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to water scarcity. By combining global maps of projected cropland and pasture area with an ensemble of water scarcity projections, we aim to quantify the risks that water scarcity could pose to land-based food production in 2050. An in-depth analysis is also undertaken for specific food commodities: maize, rice, wheat, vegetables, fruit and pulses on croplands, and cattle production systems t on grasslands. •We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability.•We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability.•Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability.•Changes in diet and waste reduction offer a buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.
ArticleNumber	101944
Author	West, P.C. Sands, R. Herrero, M. Stehfest, E. Havlik, P. Doelman, J. Alexander, P. Powell, T. Smith, P. Krisztin, T. Bajzelj, B. Calvin, K. Hasegawa, T. Gerber, J.S. Fitton, N. van Meijl, H. Arnell, N.
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Snippet	•We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability.•We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and... Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current... With a rapidly expanding population and climate change having an impact, pressures on food production systems are expected to increase in coming decades. To...
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SubjectTerms	Africa Agricultural expansion Agricultural land Agricultural production Agricultural wastes Agriculture Availability China economic productivity ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Europe Food Food consumption Food production Food security Food waste Grass Grasses Insecurity issues and policy Land loss Land use Meat meat consumption Middle East population growth Production Productivity Reduction risk Risk reduction Scarcity Shared socio-economic pathways Uncertainty Water Water availability Water scarcity water shortages Water supply
Title	The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
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