The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the United States

Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from wildfire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the United States. We estimate...

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Vydáno v:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 118; číslo 2
Hlavní autoři:	Burke, Marshall, Driscoll, Anne, Heft-Neal, Sam, Xue, Jiani, Burney, Jennifer, Wara, Michael
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	United States 12.01.2021
Témata:	Air Pollution - analysis Climate Change Environmental Exposure Environmental Pollution Fires Humans Models, Statistical Particulate Matter - analysis Risk Factors Smoke - analysis United States Wildfires - prevention & control Wildfires - statistics & numerical data United States air pollution wildfire climate change health impacts
ISSN:	1091-6490, 1091-6490
On-line přístup:	Zjistit podrobnosti o přístupu
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Abstract	Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from wildfire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the United States. We estimate that nearly 50 million homes are currently in the wildland-urban interface in the United States, a number increasing by 1 million houses every 3 y. To illustrate how changes in wildfire activity might affect air pollution and related health outcomes, and how these linkages might guide future science and policy, we develop a statistical model that relates satellite-based fire and smoke data to information from pollution monitoring stations. Using the model, we estimate that wildfires have accounted for up to 25% of (particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) in recent years across the United States, and up to half in some Western regions, with spatial patterns in ambient smoke exposure that do not follow traditional socioeconomic pollution exposure gradients. We combine the model with stylized scenarios to show that fuel management interventions could have large health benefits and that future health impacts from climate-change-induced wildfire smoke could approach projected overall increases in temperature-related mortality from climate change-but that both estimates remain uncertain. We use model results to highlight important areas for future research and to draw lessons for policy.
AbstractList	Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from wildfire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the United States. We estimate that nearly 50 million homes are currently in the wildland-urban interface in the United States, a number increasing by 1 million houses every 3 y. To illustrate how changes in wildfire activity might affect air pollution and related health outcomes, and how these linkages might guide future science and policy, we develop a statistical model that relates satellite-based fire and smoke data to information from pollution monitoring stations. Using the model, we estimate that wildfires have accounted for up to 25% of PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) in recent years across the United States, and up to half in some Western regions, with spatial patterns in ambient smoke exposure that do not follow traditional socioeconomic pollution exposure gradients. We combine the model with stylized scenarios to show that fuel management interventions could have large health benefits and that future health impacts from climate-change-induced wildfire smoke could approach projected overall increases in temperature-related mortality from climate change-but that both estimates remain uncertain. We use model results to highlight important areas for future research and to draw lessons for policy.Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from wildfire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the United States. We estimate that nearly 50 million homes are currently in the wildland-urban interface in the United States, a number increasing by 1 million houses every 3 y. To illustrate how changes in wildfire activity might affect air pollution and related health outcomes, and how these linkages might guide future science and policy, we develop a statistical model that relates satellite-based fire and smoke data to information from pollution monitoring stations. Using the model, we estimate that wildfires have accounted for up to 25% of PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) in recent years across the United States, and up to half in some Western regions, with spatial patterns in ambient smoke exposure that do not follow traditional socioeconomic pollution exposure gradients. We combine the model with stylized scenarios to show that fuel management interventions could have large health benefits and that future health impacts from climate-change-induced wildfire smoke could approach projected overall increases in temperature-related mortality from climate change-but that both estimates remain uncertain. We use model results to highlight important areas for future research and to draw lessons for policy. Recent dramatic and deadly increases in global wildfire activity have increased attention on the causes of wildfires, their consequences, and how risk from wildfire might be mitigated. Here we bring together data on the changing risk and societal burden of wildfire in the United States. We estimate that nearly 50 million homes are currently in the wildland-urban interface in the United States, a number increasing by 1 million houses every 3 y. To illustrate how changes in wildfire activity might affect air pollution and related health outcomes, and how these linkages might guide future science and policy, we develop a statistical model that relates satellite-based fire and smoke data to information from pollution monitoring stations. Using the model, we estimate that wildfires have accounted for up to 25% of (particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm) in recent years across the United States, and up to half in some Western regions, with spatial patterns in ambient smoke exposure that do not follow traditional socioeconomic pollution exposure gradients. We combine the model with stylized scenarios to show that fuel management interventions could have large health benefits and that future health impacts from climate-change-induced wildfire smoke could approach projected overall increases in temperature-related mortality from climate change-but that both estimates remain uncertain. We use model results to highlight important areas for future research and to draw lessons for policy.
Author	Wara, Michael Driscoll, Anne Xue, Jiani Burney, Jennifer Burke, Marshall Heft-Neal, Sam
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Marshall orcidid: 0000-0003-4288-5858 surname: Burke fullname: Burke, Marshall email: mburke@stanford.edu organization: National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138 – sequence: 2 givenname: Anne surname: Driscoll fullname: Driscoll, Anne organization: Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 – sequence: 3 givenname: Sam orcidid: 0000-0002-9129-2365 surname: Heft-Neal fullname: Heft-Neal, Sam organization: Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 – sequence: 4 givenname: Jiani orcidid: 0000-0003-4723-2338 surname: Xue fullname: Xue, Jiani organization: Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 – sequence: 5 givenname: Jennifer orcidid: 0000-0003-3532-2934 surname: Burney fullname: Burney, Jennifer organization: School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 – sequence: 6 givenname: Michael orcidid: 0000-0002-7720-7806 surname: Wara fullname: Wara, Michael organization: Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33431571$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Title	The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the United States
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