Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance
•We review observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s boreal forest.•Substantial changes in productivity, vegetation distribution, disturbance regimes and carbon budget are already observed.•Future changes may intensify these patterns, but their interaction is subject to uncertainty.•...
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| Vydáno v: | Forest ecology and management Ročník 361; s. 432 - 444 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Elsevier B.V
01.02.2016
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| ISSN: | 0378-1127, 1872-7042 |
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| Abstract | •We review observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s boreal forest.•Substantial changes in productivity, vegetation distribution, disturbance regimes and carbon budget are already observed.•Future changes may intensify these patterns, but their interaction is subject to uncertainty.•There is an, as of yet unquantified, risk that tipping points may occur, related to permafrost melting and forest dieback.•Climate change impacts are strongly interconnected with socio-economic and forest management changes.
Russia’s boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review presents an overview of observed and potential future climate change impacts on those forests with an emphasis on their aggregate carbon balance and processes driving changes therein. We summarize recent findings highlighting that radiation increases, temperature-driven longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations generally enhance vegetation productivity, while heat waves and droughts tend to decrease it. Estimates of major carbon fluxes such as net biome production agree that the Russian forests as a whole currently act as a carbon sink, but these estimates differ in terms of the magnitude of the sink due to different methods and time periods used. Moreover, models project substantial distributional shifts of forest biomes, but they may overestimate the extent to which the boreal forest will shift poleward as past migration rates have been slow. While other impacts of current climate change are already substantial, and projected impacts could be both large-scale and disastrous, the likelihood for a tipping point behavior of Russia’s boreal forest is still unquantified. Other substantial research gaps include the large-scale effect of (climate-driven) disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks, which are expected to increase in the future. We conclude that the impacts of climate change on Russia’s boreal forest are often superimposed by other environmental and societal changes in a complex way, and the interaction of these developments could exacerbate both existing and projected future challenges. Hence, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russia’s forests is strongly advised. |
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| AbstractList | Russia’s boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review presents an overview of observed and potential future climate change impacts on those forests with an emphasis on their aggregate carbon balance and processes driving changes therein. We summarize recent findings highlighting that radiation increases, temperature-driven longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations generally enhance vegetation productivity, while heat waves and droughts tend to decrease it. Estimates of major carbon fluxes such as net biome production agree that the Russian forests as a whole currently act as a carbon sink, but these estimates differ in terms of the magnitude of the sink due to different methods and time periods used. Moreover, models project substantial distributional shifts of forest biomes, but they may overestimate the extent to which the boreal forest will shift poleward as past migration rates have been slow. While other impacts of current climate change are already substantial, and projected impacts could be both large-scale and disastrous, the likelihood for a tipping point behavior of Russia’s boreal forest is still unquantified. Other substantial research gaps include the large-scale effect of (climate-driven) disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks, which are expected to increase in the future. We conclude that the impacts of climate change on Russia’s boreal forest are often superimposed by other environmental and societal changes in a complex way, and the interaction of these developments could exacerbate both existing and projected future challenges. Hence, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russia’s forests is strongly advised. •We review observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s boreal forest.•Substantial changes in productivity, vegetation distribution, disturbance regimes and carbon budget are already observed.•Future changes may intensify these patterns, but their interaction is subject to uncertainty.•There is an, as of yet unquantified, risk that tipping points may occur, related to permafrost melting and forest dieback.•Climate change impacts are strongly interconnected with socio-economic and forest management changes. Russia’s boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review presents an overview of observed and potential future climate change impacts on those forests with an emphasis on their aggregate carbon balance and processes driving changes therein. We summarize recent findings highlighting that radiation increases, temperature-driven longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations generally enhance vegetation productivity, while heat waves and droughts tend to decrease it. Estimates of major carbon fluxes such as net biome production agree that the Russian forests as a whole currently act as a carbon sink, but these estimates differ in terms of the magnitude of the sink due to different methods and time periods used. Moreover, models project substantial distributional shifts of forest biomes, but they may overestimate the extent to which the boreal forest will shift poleward as past migration rates have been slow. While other impacts of current climate change are already substantial, and projected impacts could be both large-scale and disastrous, the likelihood for a tipping point behavior of Russia’s boreal forest is still unquantified. Other substantial research gaps include the large-scale effect of (climate-driven) disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks, which are expected to increase in the future. We conclude that the impacts of climate change on Russia’s boreal forest are often superimposed by other environmental and societal changes in a complex way, and the interaction of these developments could exacerbate both existing and projected future challenges. Hence, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russia’s forests is strongly advised. |
| Author | Gerten, Dieter Schaphoff, Sibyll Shvidenko, Anatoly Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schepaschenko, Dmitry |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Sibyll surname: Schaphoff fullname: Schaphoff, Sibyll email: Sibyll.Schaphoff@pik-potsdam.de organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Christopher P.O. surname: Reyer fullname: Reyer, Christopher P.O. organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Dmitry surname: Schepaschenko fullname: Schepaschenko, Dmitry organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 4 givenname: Dieter surname: Gerten fullname: Gerten, Dieter organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 5 givenname: Anatoly surname: Shvidenko fullname: Shvidenko, Anatoly organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria |
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| Snippet | •We review observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s boreal forest.•Substantial changes in productivity, vegetation distribution, disturbance... Russia's boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review... Russia’s boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review... |
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| SubjectTerms | Balancing Boreal forests Carbon Carbon balance carbon dioxide Carbon pools carbon sinks Climate change drought ecosystems Estimates Fire fires Forest productivity Forests growing season heat Heat sinks Insects Permafrost Russia Tipping point Vegetation |
| Title | Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance |
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