Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics

The renewed effort to eliminate malaria and permanently remove its tremendous burden highlights questions of what combination of tools would be sufficient in various settings and what new tools need to be developed. Gene drive mosquitoes constitute a promising set of tools, with multiple different p...

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Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 114; no. 2; pp. E255 - E264
Main Authors: Eckhoff, Philip A, Wenger, Edward A, Godfray, H Charles J, Burt, Austin
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 10.01.2017
Subjects:
Animals
Anopheles - genetics
Gene Drive Technology
Insect Vectors - genetics
Malaria - transmission
Models, Theoretical
Mosquito Control
Tanzania
mosquitoes
Anopheles
gene drive
malaria
elimination
ISSN:1091-6490
Online Access:Get more information
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Abstract The renewed effort to eliminate malaria and permanently remove its tremendous burden highlights questions of what combination of tools would be sufficient in various settings and what new tools need to be developed. Gene drive mosquitoes constitute a promising set of tools, with multiple different possible approaches including population replacement with introduced genes limiting malaria transmission, driving-Y chromosomes to collapse a mosquito population, and gene drive disrupting a fertility gene and thereby achieving population suppression or collapse. Each of these approaches has had recent success and advances under laboratory conditions, raising the urgency for understanding how each could be deployed in the real world and the potential impacts of each. New analyses are needed as existing models of gene drive primarily focus on nonseasonal or nonspatial dynamics. We use a mechanistic, spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based mathematical model to simulate each gene drive approach in a variety of sub-Saharan African settings. Each approach exhibits a broad region of gene construct parameter space with successful elimination of malaria transmission due to the targeted vector species. The introduction of realistic seasonality in vector population dynamics facilitates gene drive success compared with nonseasonal analyses. Spatial simulations illustrate constraints on release timing, frequency, and spatial density in the most challenging settings for construct success. Within its parameter space for success, each gene drive approach provides a tool for malaria elimination unlike anything presently available. Provided potential barriers to success are surmounted, each achieves high efficacy at reducing transmission potential and lower delivery requirements in logistically challenged settings.
AbstractList The renewed effort to eliminate malaria and permanently remove its tremendous burden highlights questions of what combination of tools would be sufficient in various settings and what new tools need to be developed. Gene drive mosquitoes constitute a promising set of tools, with multiple different possible approaches including population replacement with introduced genes limiting malaria transmission, driving-Y chromosomes to collapse a mosquito population, and gene drive disrupting a fertility gene and thereby achieving population suppression or collapse. Each of these approaches has had recent success and advances under laboratory conditions, raising the urgency for understanding how each could be deployed in the real world and the potential impacts of each. New analyses are needed as existing models of gene drive primarily focus on nonseasonal or nonspatial dynamics. We use a mechanistic, spatially explicit, stochastic, individual-based mathematical model to simulate each gene drive approach in a variety of sub-Saharan African settings. Each approach exhibits a broad region of gene construct parameter space with successful elimination of malaria transmission due to the targeted vector species. The introduction of realistic seasonality in vector population dynamics facilitates gene drive success compared with nonseasonal analyses. Spatial simulations illustrate constraints on release timing, frequency, and spatial density in the most challenging settings for construct success. Within its parameter space for success, each gene drive approach provides a tool for malaria elimination unlike anything presently available. Provided potential barriers to success are surmounted, each achieves high efficacy at reducing transmission potential and lower delivery requirements in logistically challenged settings.
Author Eckhoff, Philip A
Wenger, Edward A
Burt, Austin
Godfray, H Charles J
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Philip A
  surname: Eckhoff
  fullname: Eckhoff, Philip A
  email: peckhoff@idmod.org
  organization: Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA 98005; peckhoff@idmod.org
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  givenname: Edward A
  surname: Wenger
  fullname: Wenger, Edward A
  organization: Institute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA 98005
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  surname: Godfray
  fullname: Godfray, H Charles J
  organization: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
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  givenname: Austin
  surname: Burt
  fullname: Burt, Austin
  organization: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, United Kingdom
BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28028208$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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gene drive
malaria
elimination
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SubjectTerms Animals
Anopheles - genetics
Gene Drive Technology
Insect Vectors - genetics
Malaria - transmission
Models, Theoretical
Mosquito Control
Tanzania
Title Impact of mosquito gene drive on malaria elimination in a computational model with explicit spatial and temporal dynamics
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