Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030
Background and Aim Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology Jg. 35; H. 9; S. 1628 - 1635 |
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
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Australia
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
01.09.2020
John Wiley and Sons Inc |
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| ISSN: | 0815-9319, 1440-1746, 1440-1746 |
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| Abstract | Background and Aim
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.
Methods
A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long‐term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.
Results
Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000–6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000–7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100–3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100–6100) deaths in 2030.
Conclusions
Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Background and AimNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.MethodsA model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long‐term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.ResultsPrevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000–6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000–7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100–3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100–6100) deaths in 2030.ConclusionsRestraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. Background and Aim Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030. Methods A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long‐term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer. Results Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000–6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000–7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100–3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100–6100) deaths in 2030. Conclusions Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030. A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer. Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030. Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.BACKGROUND AND AIMNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.METHODSA model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030.RESULTSPrevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030.Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.CONCLUSIONSRestraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden. |
| Author | Razavi, Homie Adams, Leon A Powell, Elizabeth Estes, Chris George, Jacob Strasser, Simone I Mahady, Suzanne E Roberts, Stuart K |
| AuthorAffiliation | 2 Department of Gastroenterology The Alfred Melbourne Victoria Australia 5 Department of Gastroenterology Royal Melbourne Hospital Melbourne Victoria Australia 7 Center for Disease Analysis Lafayette Colorado USA 3 AW Morrow Gastroenterology and Liver Centre Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Sydney New South Wales Australia 1 Medical School The University of Western Australia Perth Western Australia Australia 4 School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne Victoria Australia 6 Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Princess Alexandra Hospital Brisbane Queensland Australia 8 School of Medicine University of Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 2 Department of Gastroenterology The Alfred Melbourne Victoria Australia – name: 3 AW Morrow Gastroenterology and Liver Centre Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Sydney New South Wales Australia – name: 4 School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne Victoria Australia – name: 1 Medical School The University of Western Australia Perth Western Australia Australia – name: 5 Department of Gastroenterology Royal Melbourne Hospital Melbourne Victoria Australia – name: 6 Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Princess Alexandra Hospital Brisbane Queensland Australia – name: 8 School of Medicine University of Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia – name: 7 Center for Disease Analysis Lafayette Colorado USA |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Leon A surname: Adams fullname: Adams, Leon A organization: The University of Western Australia – sequence: 2 givenname: Stuart K orcidid: 0000-0002-9015-7997 surname: Roberts fullname: Roberts, Stuart K organization: The Alfred – sequence: 3 givenname: Simone I surname: Strasser fullname: Strasser, Simone I organization: Royal Prince Alfred Hospital – sequence: 4 givenname: Suzanne E surname: Mahady fullname: Mahady, Suzanne E organization: Royal Melbourne Hospital – sequence: 5 givenname: Elizabeth surname: Powell fullname: Powell, Elizabeth organization: Princess Alexandra Hospital – sequence: 6 givenname: Chris orcidid: 0000-0002-2367-6535 surname: Estes fullname: Estes, Chris email: cestes@cdafound.org organization: Center for Disease Analysis – sequence: 7 givenname: Homie surname: Razavi fullname: Razavi, Homie organization: Center for Disease Analysis – sequence: 8 givenname: Jacob surname: George fullname: George, Jacob organization: University of Sydney |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32048317$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Copyright | 2020 The Authors. Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology published by Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd 2020 The Authors. Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology published by Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. 2020. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
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| Keywords | Hepatocellular carcinoma Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease Fatty liver Metabolic syndrome Liver cirrhosis Liver neoplasms |
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| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 Declaration of conflict of interest: Funding for this project was provided by Gilead Sciences. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of the data, or preparation of the manuscript. Author contribution: H. R. and C. E. conceived and designed the analysis. L. A. A., S. K. R., S. I. S., S. E. M., E. P., C. E., H. R., and J. G. contributed the data and provided data analysis and interpretation. L. A. A., S. K. R., S. I. S., S. E. M., E. P., C. E., H. R., and J. G. provided critical revision of the work. |
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Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease... Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally.... Background and AimNonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease... |
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| SubjectTerms | Clinical Hepatology Diabetes mellitus Fatty liver Fibrosis Hepatocellular carcinoma Hepatology Liver cancer Liver cirrhosis Liver diseases Liver neoplasms Markov chains Metabolic syndrome Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease Obesity Surveillance |
| Title | Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019–2030 |
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