Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectio...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scientific reports Jg. 4; H. 1; S. 5157
1. Verfasser: Onozuka, Daisuke
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: London Nature Publishing Group UK 03.06.2014
Nature Publishing Group
Schlagworte:
692/308/174
704/106/694/2739/2807
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Bacterial Infections - epidemiology
Bacterial Infections - transmission
Child
Child, Preschool
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change - statistics & numerical data
Climate effects
Computer Simulation
Data processing
Diarrhea
Disease
Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data
El Nino
Epidemics
Female
Gastroenteritis
Gastroenteritis - epidemiology
Global climate
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Humidity
Incidence
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Japan - epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
multidisciplinary
Rain
Risk Assessment
Science
Southern Oscillation
Statistics as Topic
Time series
Warning systems
Young Adult
Japan
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
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Zusammenfassung:Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4 and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.
Bibliographie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/srep05157