Transforming tropical peatland governance to manage climate risks using the Three Horizons method

Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km 2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to ide...

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Vydáno v:	PloS one Ročník 20; číslo 11; s. e0324399
Hlavní autoři:	Reed, Mark S., Kopansky, Dianna, Beechener, Sam, Green, Alexa, Scheel, Patrick, Kendrick, Ian, Suspense, Ifo Averti, Ewango, Corneille, Honorio Coronado, Euridice N., Hidalgo Pizango, Carlos Gabriel, Brañas, Manuel Martin, del Aguila Villacorta, Margarita, Krisnawati, Haruni, Fazey, Ioan, Page, Susan, Stringer, Lindsay C., Maynard, Carly, Kieft, Johannes, Curtis, Tom, Allen, Sian, Costa-Font, Montserrat, Everett, Rosie, Mihaha, Emmanuel-Tsadok N.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	United States Public Library of Science 20.11.2025 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Témata:	Carbon Climate Change Community Complexity Conservation of Natural Resources - methods Ecosystem Ecosystem services Ecosystems Emissions Empowerment Environmental management Environmental risk Environmental stewardship Forests Futures Greenhouse gases Humans Knowledge Land use Peat Peat-bogs Peatlands Social-ecological systems Sustainability management Tropical Climate Wetlands Amazon River region Southeast Asia Taiwan Congo (Kinshasa) United Kingdom Peru Indonesia Africa
ISSN:	1932-6203, 1932-6203
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Abstract	Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km 2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to identify transformational governance options for managing climate risks in these multifunctional social-ecological systems. This paper breaks new ground by applying the Three Horizons method to the governance of tropical peatlands. It evaluates the capacity for this method to generate transformative options that address conceptual and existential risks, as well as visible climate risks, whilst integrating research evidence with local knowledge. The paper focuses on countries that collectively represent the majority of global tropical peatland area and emissions, combining evidence from the literature with in-country expertise through Three Horizons workshops in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and additional business-to-business engagement in Indonesia. The paper identifies a number of pathways that could transform the resilience of habitats and populations dependent on tropical peatlands, with community empowerment and payments for ecosystem services emerging as key themes across all four countries. Drawing on these findings, recommendations are made for managing climate risks through tropical peatland conservation, restoration and sustainable management. Application of the Three Horizons method demonstrates the critical role of integrating multiple knowledge sources to structure dialogues that can create credible and socially acceptable policy options for managing complex social-ecological systems.
AbstractList	Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km.sup.2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to identify transformational governance options for managing climate risks in these multifunctional social-ecological systems. This paper breaks new ground by applying the Three Horizons method to the governance of tropical peatlands. It evaluates the capacity for this method to generate transformative options that address conceptual and existential risks, as well as visible climate risks, whilst integrating research evidence with local knowledge. The paper focuses on countries that collectively represent the majority of global tropical peatland area and emissions, combining evidence from the literature with in-country expertise through Three Horizons workshops in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and additional business-to-business engagement in Indonesia. The paper identifies a number of pathways that could transform the resilience of habitats and populations dependent on tropical peatlands, with community empowerment and payments for ecosystem services emerging as key themes across all four countries. Drawing on these findings, recommendations are made for managing climate risks through tropical peatland conservation, restoration and sustainable management. Application of the Three Horizons method demonstrates the critical role of integrating multiple knowledge sources to structure dialogues that can create credible and socially acceptable policy options for managing complex social-ecological systems. Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km 2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to identify transformational governance options for managing climate risks in these multifunctional social-ecological systems. This paper breaks new ground by applying the Three Horizons method to the governance of tropical peatlands. It evaluates the capacity for this method to generate transformative options that address conceptual and existential risks, as well as visible climate risks, whilst integrating research evidence with local knowledge. The paper focuses on countries that collectively represent the majority of global tropical peatland area and emissions, combining evidence from the literature with in-country expertise through Three Horizons workshops in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and additional business-to-business engagement in Indonesia. The paper identifies a number of pathways that could transform the resilience of habitats and populations dependent on tropical peatlands, with community empowerment and payments for ecosystem services emerging as key themes across all four countries. Drawing on these findings, recommendations are made for managing climate risks through tropical peatland conservation, restoration and sustainable management. Application of the Three Horizons method demonstrates the critical role of integrating multiple knowledge sources to structure dialogues that can create credible and socially acceptable policy options for managing complex social-ecological systems. Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to identify transformational governance options for managing climate risks in these multifunctional social-ecological systems. This paper breaks new ground by applying the Three Horizons method to the governance of tropical peatlands. It evaluates the capacity for this method to generate transformative options that address conceptual and existential risks, as well as visible climate risks, whilst integrating research evidence with local knowledge. The paper focuses on countries that collectively represent the majority of global tropical peatland area and emissions, combining evidence from the literature with in-country expertise through Three Horizons workshops in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and additional business-to-business engagement in Indonesia. The paper identifies a number of pathways that could transform the resilience of habitats and populations dependent on tropical peatlands, with community empowerment and payments for ecosystem services emerging as key themes across all four countries. Drawing on these findings, recommendations are made for managing climate risks through tropical peatland conservation, restoration and sustainable management. Application of the Three Horizons method demonstrates the critical role of integrating multiple knowledge sources to structure dialogues that can create credible and socially acceptable policy options for managing complex social-ecological systems. Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to identify transformational governance options for managing climate risks in these multifunctional social-ecological systems. This paper breaks new ground by applying the Three Horizons method to the governance of tropical peatlands. It evaluates the capacity for this method to generate transformative options that address conceptual and existential risks, as well as visible climate risks, whilst integrating research evidence with local knowledge. The paper focuses on countries that collectively represent the majority of global tropical peatland area and emissions, combining evidence from the literature with in-country expertise through Three Horizons workshops in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and additional business-to-business engagement in Indonesia. The paper identifies a number of pathways that could transform the resilience of habitats and populations dependent on tropical peatlands, with community empowerment and payments for ecosystem services emerging as key themes across all four countries. Drawing on these findings, recommendations are made for managing climate risks through tropical peatland conservation, restoration and sustainable management. Application of the Three Horizons method demonstrates the critical role of integrating multiple knowledge sources to structure dialogues that can create credible and socially acceptable policy options for managing complex social-ecological systems.Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and anticipated future changes in climate. Integrating knowledge from diverse sources using methods that can manage complexity is vital in order to identify transformational governance options for managing climate risks in these multifunctional social-ecological systems. This paper breaks new ground by applying the Three Horizons method to the governance of tropical peatlands. It evaluates the capacity for this method to generate transformative options that address conceptual and existential risks, as well as visible climate risks, whilst integrating research evidence with local knowledge. The paper focuses on countries that collectively represent the majority of global tropical peatland area and emissions, combining evidence from the literature with in-country expertise through Three Horizons workshops in Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo and Republic of Congo, and additional business-to-business engagement in Indonesia. The paper identifies a number of pathways that could transform the resilience of habitats and populations dependent on tropical peatlands, with community empowerment and payments for ecosystem services emerging as key themes across all four countries. Drawing on these findings, recommendations are made for managing climate risks through tropical peatland conservation, restoration and sustainable management. Application of the Three Horizons method demonstrates the critical role of integrating multiple knowledge sources to structure dialogues that can create credible and socially acceptable policy options for managing complex social-ecological systems.
Audience	Academic
Author	Kieft, Johannes Kopansky, Dianna Honorio Coronado, Euridice N. Maynard, Carly Green, Alexa Fazey, Ioan Kendrick, Ian Brañas, Manuel Martin Allen, Sian del Aguila Villacorta, Margarita Costa-Font, Montserrat Scheel, Patrick Curtis, Tom Everett, Rosie Mihaha, Emmanuel-Tsadok N. Reed, Mark S. Ewango, Corneille Beechener, Sam Hidalgo Pizango, Carlos Gabriel Page, Susan Suspense, Ifo Averti Stringer, Lindsay C. Krisnawati, Haruni
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Copyright	Copyright: © 2025 Reed et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. COPYRIGHT 2025 Public Library of Science 2025 Reed et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 2025 Reed et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
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Snippet	Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km 2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and... Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and... Tropical peatlands occupy at least 440,000 km.sup.2 and are estimated to store around 100 megatons of carbon, but are exposed to risks from both current and...
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SubjectTerms	Carbon Climate Change Community Complexity Conservation of Natural Resources - methods Ecosystem Ecosystem services Ecosystems Emissions Empowerment Environmental management Environmental risk Environmental stewardship Forests Futures Greenhouse gases Humans Knowledge Land use Peat Peat-bogs Peatlands Social-ecological systems Sustainability management Tropical Climate Wetlands
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Title	Transforming tropical peatland governance to manage climate risks using the Three Horizons method
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