Population exposure to pre-emptive de-energization aimed at averting wildfires in Northern California

Recent extreme fire seasons in California have prompted utilities such as Pacific Gas and Electric to pre-emptively de-energize portions of the electrical grid during periods of extreme fire weather to reduce the risk of powerline-related fire ignitions. The policy was deployed in 2019, resulting in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental research letters Vol. 15; no. 9; pp. 94046 - 94053
Main Authors: Abatzoglou, John T, Smith, Craig M, Swain, Daniel L, Ptak, Thomas, Kolden, Crystal A
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.09.2020
Subjects:
Climate change
Climatic conditions
Decision making
Electric power
Electric utilities
energy
Extreme weather
Modernization
open climate campaign
Risk reduction
Vegetation
Weather
wildfire
Wildfires
Northern California
United States > US
California
ISSN:1748-9326, 1748-9326
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Recent extreme fire seasons in California have prompted utilities such as Pacific Gas and Electric to pre-emptively de-energize portions of the electrical grid during periods of extreme fire weather to reduce the risk of powerline-related fire ignitions. The policy was deployed in 2019, resulting in 12 million person-days of power outages and widespread societal disruption. Retrospective weather and vegetation moisture data highlight hotspots of historical risk across northern California. We estimate an average of 1.6 million person-days of de-energization per year, based on recent historical climate conditions and assuming publicly stated utility de-energization thresholds. We further estimate an additional 70% increase in the population affected by de-energization when vegetation remains abnormally dry later into autumn-suggesting that climate change will likely increase population vulnerable to de-energization. Adaptation efforts to curtail fire risk can be beneficial, but efforts to prepare affected populations, modernize the grid, and refine decision-making surrounding such policies have high potential to reduce the magnitude of negative externalities experienced during the 2019 de-energization events.
Bibliography:ERL-108702.R1
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ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aba135