Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty
Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural haz...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Forest ecosystems Jg. 2; H. 1; S. 1 - 142 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Beijing
Beijing Forestry University
23.04.2015
Elsevier Limited Forestry Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 800 East Beckwith, Missoula, MT 59801, USA%Business&the environment, Postnet Suite 10102, Private Bag X7005, Hil crest 3650, South Africa KeAi Communications Co., Ltd |
| Schlagworte: | |
| ISSN: | 2197-5620, 2095-6355, 2197-5620 |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| Abstract | Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs. |
| ArticleNumber | 11 |
| Author | Calkin, David E Mentis, Mike |
| AuthorAffiliation | Forestry Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 800 East Beckwith, Missoula, MT 59801, USA%Business&the environment, Postnet Suite 10102, Private Bag X7005, Hil crest 3650, South Africa |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: Forestry Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 800 East Beckwith, Missoula, MT 59801, USA%Business&the environment, Postnet Suite 10102, Private Bag X7005, Hil crest 3650, South Africa |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: David E surname: Calkin fullname: Calkin, David E email: decalkin@fs.fed.us organization: Forestry Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station – sequence: 2 givenname: Mike surname: Mentis fullname: Mentis, Mike organization: Business & the environment |
| BookMark | eNp9kUtr3TAQhU1JoWmaH5CdoYuu3M5YfnZXQh-BQCg0azG2Ro5ufaVbSaZJfn3kuqGh0G4kMXzncDTnZXZkneUsO0N4i9g170IFTSMKwLoAEFXRPsuOS-zbom5KOHryfpGdhrADAEQBoq-Os69XB2ONs-_zeMP5Ejh3OrcUF09zfkP35FW-d4pnY6dcO58rHk1IgnxP39fZYhX7dI7sIxkb715lzzXNgU9_3yfZ9aeP386_FJdXny_OP1wWY9VDLEipFnvqiWvQA48osBuGqumYsWrLUWMtQCdCQ62bWhF2igc9iq4WRCn_SXax-SpHO3nwZk_-Tjoy8tfA-UmSj2acWRJCyWroO1i9ueqYNFelQGgEcL16vdm8fpLVZCe5c4u3Kb28n-ZbyWVaLZQAXSJfb-TBux8Lh_gHxRZEWwpASFS7UaN3IXjWcjSRYlpb9GRmiSDX4uRWnEzuci1OtkmJfykff_Y_TblpQmLtxP5Jpn-KHgD5O6uM |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1007_s00477_023_02519_9 |
| Cites_doi | 10.1021/es061030q 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.004 10.1071/WF11182 10.1071/WF09095 10.1073/pnas.1315088111 10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.08.033 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.05.005 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.011 10.1016/j.forpol.2011.02.007 10.1037/a0016755 10.5849/forsci.14-112 10.1155/2011/168473 10.5849/forsci.11-022 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.012 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Calkin and Mentis; licensee Springer. 2015. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Author(s) 2015 Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: Calkin and Mentis; licensee Springer. 2015. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. – notice: The Author(s) 2015 – notice: Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
| DBID | C6C AAYXX CITATION 3V. 7SN 7T7 7X2 8FD 8FE 8FH 8FK ABUWG AEUYN AFKRA ATCPS AZQEC BENPR BHPHI BKSAR C1K CCPQU DWQXO FR3 GNUQQ HCIFZ M0K P64 PATMY PCBAR PHGZM PHGZT PIMPY PKEHL PQEST PQQKQ PQUKI PYCSY 2B. 4A8 92I 93N PSX TCJ DOA |
| DOI | 10.1186/s40663-015-0034-7 |
| DatabaseName | Springer Nature OA Free Journals CrossRef ProQuest Central (Corporate) Ecology Abstracts Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A) Agricultural Science Collection Technology Research Database ProQuest SciTech Collection ProQuest Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016) ProQuest Central (Alumni) ProQuest One Sustainability (subscription) ProQuest Central UK/Ireland Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Essentials - QC ProQuest Central Natural Science Collection Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Central Engineering Research Database ProQuest Central Student SciTech Premium Collection Agricultural Science Database Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts Environmental Science Database Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database ProQuest Central Premium ProQuest One Academic Publicly Available Content Database ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE) ProQuest One Academic (retired) ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition Environmental Science Collection Wanfang Data Journals - Hong Kong WANFANG Data Centre Wanfang Data Journals 万方数据期刊 - 香港版 China Online Journals (COJ) China Online Journals (COJ) DOAJ Open Access Full Text |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef Agricultural Science Database Publicly Available Content Database ProQuest Central Student Technology Research Database ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) ProQuest Central Essentials ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) SciTech Premium Collection ProQuest One Community College ProQuest Natural Science Collection Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection ProQuest Central ProQuest One Sustainability Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central Korea Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection Industrial and Applied Microbiology Abstracts (Microbiology A) ProQuest Central (New) ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database Agricultural Science Collection ProQuest SciTech Collection Ecology Abstracts Biotechnology and BioEngineering Abstracts Environmental Science Collection ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition Environmental Science Database Engineering Research Database ProQuest One Academic ProQuest One Academic (New) ProQuest Central (Alumni) |
| DatabaseTitleList | Agricultural Science Database |
| Database_xml | – sequence: 1 dbid: DOA name: DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals url: https://www.doaj.org/ sourceTypes: Open Website – sequence: 2 dbid: PIMPY name: ProQuest Publicly Available Content Database url: http://search.proquest.com/publiccontent sourceTypes: Aggregation Database |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Ecology Forestry |
| EISSN | 2197-5620 |
| EndPage | 142 |
| ExternalDocumentID | oai_doaj_org_article_a102edb980e147e48eafe42310630e51 zglx_e201502008 3776717891 10_1186_s40663_015_0034_7 |
| GroupedDBID | -A0 -SD -S~ 2B. 2B~ 5SA 5VS 7X2 7XC 8FE 8FH 92G 92I 93N 93Q AAFWJ AAHBH AAKKN AAXDM ABEEZ ACACY ACGFS ACPRK ACULB ADINQ AEUYN AFGXO AFKRA AFPKN AFRAH AHBYD AHSBF AHYZX ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMKLP ASPBG ATCPS AVWKF BENPR BHPHI BKSAR C24 C6C CAJED CCPQU EBS EJD GROUPED_DOAJ HCIFZ KQ8 LK5 M0K M7R M~E OK1 PATMY PCBAR PIMPY PROAC PYCSY Q-- RSV SOJ TCJ TGD U1G U5N 0R~ AAYXX AFFHD CITATION FDB PHGZM PHGZT 3V. 7SN 7T7 8FD 8FK ABUWG AZQEC C1K DWQXO FR3 GNUQQ P64 PKEHL PQEST PQQKQ PQUKI 4A8 ECGQY PSX |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c490t-add719a9ae50fbec1318bb468ee1472cf1530f19af05f65da18debfc3853aa113 |
| IEDL.DBID | C24 |
| ISICitedReferencesCount | 3 |
| ISICitedReferencesURI | http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=000360886900001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| ISSN | 2197-5620 2095-6355 |
| IngestDate | Tue Oct 14 18:46:32 EDT 2025 Thu May 29 04:06:37 EDT 2025 Mon Jun 30 14:27:11 EDT 2025 Sat Nov 29 05:20:42 EST 2025 Tue Nov 18 22:24:19 EST 2025 Fri Feb 21 02:34:38 EST 2025 |
| IsDoiOpenAccess | true |
| IsOpenAccess | true |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 1 |
| Keywords | Large Wildfire Fire Behavior Initial Attack Fuel Treatment Wildfire Risk |
| Language | English |
| LinkModel | DirectLink |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c490t-add719a9ae50fbec1318bb468ee1472cf1530f19af05f65da18debfc3853aa113 |
| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 |
| OpenAccessLink | https://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40663-015-0034-7 |
| PQID | 1703723010 |
| PQPubID | 2034761 |
| PageCount | 4 |
| ParticipantIDs | doaj_primary_oai_doaj_org_article_a102edb980e147e48eafe42310630e51 wanfang_journals_zglx_e201502008 proquest_journals_1703723010 crossref_citationtrail_10_1186_s40663_015_0034_7 crossref_primary_10_1186_s40663_015_0034_7 springer_journals_10_1186_s40663_015_0034_7 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2015-04-23 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2015-04-23 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 04 year: 2015 text: 2015-04-23 day: 23 |
| PublicationDecade | 2010 |
| PublicationPlace | Beijing |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: Beijing |
| PublicationTitle | Forest ecosystems |
| PublicationTitleAbbrev | For. Ecosyst |
| PublicationTitle_FL | Forest Ecosystems |
| PublicationYear | 2015 |
| Publisher | Beijing Forestry University Elsevier Limited Forestry Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 800 East Beckwith, Missoula, MT 59801, USA%Business&the environment, Postnet Suite 10102, Private Bag X7005, Hil crest 3650, South Africa KeAi Communications Co., Ltd |
| Publisher_xml | – name: Beijing Forestry University – name: Elsevier Limited – name: Forestry Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 800 East Beckwith, Missoula, MT 59801, USA%Business&the environment, Postnet Suite 10102, Private Bag X7005, Hil crest 3650, South Africa – name: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd |
| References | Calkin, Cohen, Finney, Thompson (CR4) 2014; 111 Collins, de Neufville, Claro, Oliveira, Pacheco (CR5) 2013; 130 Scott, Thompson, Calkin (CR16) 2013 CR18 Robson (CR15) 2014 Jakeman, Letcher, Norton (CR9) 2006; 21 Ntaimo, Gallego-Arrubla, Gan, Stripling, Young, Spencer (CR14) 2013; 59 Calkin, Finney, Ager, Thompson, Gebert (CR3) 2011; 13 Fried, Fried (CR7) 1996; 42 CR13 Bennett, Croke, Guariso, Guillaume, Hamilton, Jakeman, Marsili-Libelli, Newham, Norton, Perrin, Pierce, Robson, Seppelt, Voinov, Fath, Andreassian (CR2) 2013; 40 Kahneman, Klein (CR10) 2009; 64 Finney, Grenfell, McHugh (CR6) 2009; 55 Nickerson (CR12) 1998; 2 Arhonditsis, Adams-VanHarn, Nielsen, Stow, Reckhow (CR1) 2006; 40 Kelly, Jakeman, Barreteau, Borsuk, ElSawah, Hamilton, Henriksen, Kuikka, Maier, Rizzoli, van Delden, Voinov (CR11) 2013; 47 Venn, Calkin (CR17) 2011; 20 Holmes, Calkin (CR8) 2013; 22 RS Nickerson (34_CR12) 1998; 2 34_CR18 AJ Jakeman (34_CR9) 2006; 21 MA Finney (34_CR6) 2009; 55 D Kahneman (34_CR10) 2009; 64 JH Scott (34_CR16) 2013 TJ Venn (34_CR17) 2011; 20 JS Fried (34_CR7) 1996; 42 L Ntaimo (34_CR14) 2013; 59 DE Calkin (34_CR3) 2011; 13 BJ Robson (34_CR15) 2014 ND Bennett (34_CR2) 2013; 40 DE Calkin (34_CR4) 2014; 111 TP Holmes (34_CR8) 2013; 22 GB Arhonditsis (34_CR1) 2006; 40 R Collins (34_CR5) 2013; 130 34_CR13 RA Kelly (34_CR11) 2013; 47 |
| References_xml | – volume: 40 start-page: 6547 issue: 21 year: 2006 end-page: 6554 ident: CR1 article-title: Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling: citation analysis and future perspectives publication-title: Environ Sci Technol doi: 10.1021/es061030q – ident: CR18 – volume: 21 start-page: 602 issue: 5 year: 2006 end-page: 614 ident: CR9 article-title: Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models publication-title: Environ Model Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.004 – ident: CR13 – volume: 22 start-page: 234 issue: 13 year: 2013 end-page: 245 ident: CR8 article-title: Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires publication-title: Int J Wildland Fire doi: 10.1071/WF11182 – volume: 20 start-page: 327 issue: 3 year: 2011 end-page: 339 ident: CR17 article-title: Accommodating non-market values in evaluation of wildfire management in the United States: challenges and opportunities publication-title: Int J Wildland Fire doi: 10.1071/WF09095 – volume: 111 start-page: 746 issue: 2 year: 2014 end-page: 751 ident: CR4 article-title: How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters publication-title: Proc Natl Acad Sci doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315088111 – start-page: 83 year: 2013 ident: CR16 publication-title: Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-315, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station – volume: 55 start-page: 249 year: 2009 end-page: 255 ident: CR6 article-title: Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis publication-title: For Sci – volume: 42 start-page: 267 issue: 3 year: 1996 end-page: 281 ident: CR7 article-title: Simulating wildfire containment with realistic tactics publication-title: For Sci – year: 2014 ident: CR15 article-title: State of the art in modelling of phosphorus in aquatic systems: review, criticisms and commentary publication-title: Environ Model Softw – volume: 2 start-page: 175 issue: 2 year: 1998 end-page: 220 ident: CR12 article-title: Confirmation bias: a ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises publication-title: Rev Gen Psychol doi: 10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 – volume: 130 start-page: 1 year: 2013 end-page: 9 ident: CR5 article-title: Forest fire management to avoid unintended consequences: a case study of Portugal using system dynamics publication-title: J Environ Manag doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.08.033 – volume: 47 start-page: 159 year: 2013 end-page: 181 ident: CR11 article-title: Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management publication-title: Environ Model Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.05.005 – volume: 40 start-page: 1 year: 2013 end-page: 20 ident: CR2 article-title: Characterising performance of environmental models publication-title: Environ Model Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.011 – volume: 59 start-page: 105 issue: 1 year: 2013 end-page: 117 ident: CR14 article-title: A simulation and stochastic integer programming approach to wildfire initial attack planning publication-title: For Sci – volume: 13 start-page: 378 issue: 5 year: 2011 end-page: 389 ident: CR3 article-title: Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for Federal wildland fire policy and decision making in the United States publication-title: Forest Policy Econ doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2011.02.007 – volume: 64 start-page: 515 issue: 6 year: 2009 ident: CR10 article-title: Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree publication-title: Am Psychol doi: 10.1037/a0016755 – ident: 34_CR18 doi: 10.5849/forsci.14-112 – volume: 21 start-page: 602 issue: 5 year: 2006 ident: 34_CR9 publication-title: Environ Model Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.004 – volume: 47 start-page: 159 year: 2013 ident: 34_CR11 publication-title: Environ Model Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.05.005 – volume: 20 start-page: 327 issue: 3 year: 2011 ident: 34_CR17 publication-title: Int J Wildland Fire doi: 10.1071/WF09095 – volume: 64 start-page: 515 issue: 6 year: 2009 ident: 34_CR10 publication-title: Am Psychol doi: 10.1037/a0016755 – volume: 55 start-page: 249 year: 2009 ident: 34_CR6 publication-title: For Sci – ident: 34_CR13 doi: 10.1155/2011/168473 – volume: 22 start-page: 234 issue: 13 year: 2013 ident: 34_CR8 publication-title: Int J Wildland Fire doi: 10.1071/WF11182 – volume: 2 start-page: 175 issue: 2 year: 1998 ident: 34_CR12 publication-title: Rev Gen Psychol doi: 10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 – volume: 59 start-page: 105 issue: 1 year: 2013 ident: 34_CR14 publication-title: For Sci doi: 10.5849/forsci.11-022 – volume: 130 start-page: 1 year: 2013 ident: 34_CR5 publication-title: J Environ Manag doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.08.033 – volume: 40 start-page: 6547 issue: 21 year: 2006 ident: 34_CR1 publication-title: Environ Sci Technol doi: 10.1021/es061030q – volume: 13 start-page: 378 issue: 5 year: 2011 ident: 34_CR3 publication-title: Forest Policy Econ doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2011.02.007 – volume: 40 start-page: 1 year: 2013 ident: 34_CR2 publication-title: Environ Model Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.011 – start-page: 83 volume-title: Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-315, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station year: 2013 ident: 34_CR16 – volume: 111 start-page: 746 issue: 2 year: 2014 ident: 34_CR4 publication-title: Proc Natl Acad Sci doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315088111 – volume: 42 start-page: 267 issue: 3 year: 1996 ident: 34_CR7 publication-title: For Sci – year: 2014 ident: 34_CR15 publication-title: Environ Model Softw doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.012 |
| SSID | ssj0001130394 ssib050731687 ssib053239822 ssib053800725 ssib038075313 ssib023373884 ssib051367614 ssib024094734 |
| Score | 1.9406871 |
| Snippet | Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural... |
| SourceID | doaj wanfang proquest crossref springer |
| SourceType | Open Website Aggregation Database Enrichment Source Index Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 1 |
| SubjectTerms | Biomedical and Life Sciences Decision making Ecology Ecosystems Environmental modeling Forestry Life Sciences Opinion Uncertainty and Risk Analysis in Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Wildfires |
| SummonAdditionalLinks | – databaseName: DOAJ Open Access Full Text dbid: DOA link: http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwrV1BS-UwEA4iCl5E15V96i45eHIJNmnSpN7cRdmT7oKCt5CmiQraJ-89Bf31zqR97fOge_HSQ5vSMjOd-aZJvo-QfSm1kWXOWfQmMJxaY2WE77GUIa9FZbxTPolN6LMzc3VV_l2Q-sI1YS09cGu4QwcVMNRVabLApQ7SBBeDRFRS5FlIm6cFoJ6FZgoiSeRI2DPswBTYxeiBCA1Z1iH4-sgEUIQCTn0hVonIbJhfVDnS5A1Ed5AlkHJbDX9zsBQk1UUBmIVhFe-mULkpDqcSCzt07YohHwzTb4pg0gp4A3D7Odm0k6iJrrleKHqnG2S9Q6v0uLXSJlkKzReyepKYrp-3yL_zh9sGHHtEAUbSx2mg40gTVSjcdONeIPpoktqBx1BAx7TuFH3ofRLBoriDbQJH3y5MmD1_JZenJxe__7BOo4F5WWYzBulR8xIpvlUWIR445IiqkoUJ6C7hI2TULMKImKlYqNpxU4cq-hxggnNgtm2y3Iyb8I3Q4GNdO6dEbTw07cJha1SKKHMtI_dhRLK50azvCMxRR-POpkbGFLa1swU7I-WptHpEDvpbHlr2jo8G_0JP9AOReDudgHC0XTja_4XjiOzN_Wi7bDC1HNKqhl6PZyPyc-7bhcvvvxHt3D8Mfrm-g4wm8EcVLl3Z-YyX3iVrIgWnZCLfI8uzyWP4Tlb80-x2OvmRvqxX7-UVcw priority: 102 providerName: Directory of Open Access Journals – databaseName: ProQuest Central dbid: BENPR link: http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV3Pb9MwFLagA4kLvycKG_KBE8ha7NixwwUx1IlTGQik3SLHscukkXZNh7T99bznOsl22C5cemgdNfH78n742d9HyDsptZFlzllwxjNsrbEywPtYSp83ojbOKhfFJvR8bk5OyuO04NalbZW9T4yOulk6XCM_4ABNDfkyzz6tzhmqRmF3NUlo3Cc7yFQmJ2TncDY__tEjSuRI3DOexBRYzeiREA3Z1gGEA0IhOUIhpyEgq0hoNvYZVY50eSPhHXgLpN5W46oOhoSoviggd2EYzVMrlZvioJMY4KF6Vwx5YZi-EQyjZsCNRHfozcYTRW2w7eJa8Dt68r_T9pQ8Tmkv_bzF6TNyz7fPycNZpMy-fEG-f1udtoCQjxTyUXrReboMNHKOwkW_7RXAmEbNHrhPCmk2bZI0EP0T1bQoHoVbw6fb7nDYXL4kv45mP798ZUnsgTlZZhsGflbzErnCVRYAWBycTV3LwnjPpRYugGvOAowImQqFaiw3ja-DyyHfsBbmfZdM2mXrXxHqXWgaa5VojIPqX1issUoRZK5l4M5PSdbPeuUSEzoKcpxVsSIyRbU1VAWGQu5UWekpeT9cstrSgNw1-BBNOQxEBu_4xXK9qJJDqCxkdr6pS5Ph83lpvA1eYrZd5JlXfEr2eoNWya101WjNKfnQg-Paz7ffEU34GQdfLc7ANQpc8cI9MK_v_r835JGIuJVM5Htksllf-H3ywP3dnHbrt-m1-wfwdSUP priority: 102 providerName: ProQuest |
| Title | Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty |
| URI | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40663-015-0034-7 https://www.proquest.com/docview/1703723010 https://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/periodical/zglx-e201502008 https://doaj.org/article/a102edb980e147e48eafe42310630e51 |
| Volume | 2 |
| WOSCitedRecordID | wos000360886900001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| journalDatabaseRights | – providerCode: PRVAON databaseName: DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001130394 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: DOA dateStart: 20140101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://www.doaj.org/ providerName: Directory of Open Access Journals – providerCode: PRVHPJ databaseName: ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 99991231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssib050731687 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: M~E dateStart: 20140101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://road.issn.org providerName: ISSN International Centre – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Agricultural Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 20211231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001130394 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: M0K dateStart: 20140201 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/agriculturejournals providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 20211231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001130394 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: PCBAR dateStart: 20140201 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/eaasdb providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Environmental Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 20211231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001130394 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: PATMY dateStart: 20140201 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: http://search.proquest.com/environmentalscience providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: ProQuest Central - New (Subscription) customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 20211231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001130394 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: BENPR dateStart: 20140201 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://www.proquest.com/central providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: ProQuest Publicly Available Content Database customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 20211231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001130394 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: PIMPY dateStart: 20140201 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: http://search.proquest.com/publiccontent providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVAVX databaseName: SpringerOpen customDbUrl: eissn: 2197-5620 dateEnd: 20211231 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0001130394 issn: 2197-5620 databaseCode: C24 dateStart: 20141201 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://link.springer.com/search?facet-content-type=%22Journal%22 providerName: Springer Nature |
| link | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwnV1Lb9QwEB5BCxWXAqUVS8vKB04gizhxErs3Wm0FQl0WBFI5RY5jL5VKttpskdoDv70zXmdpJUCCiw-xnTjz8owf3wC8kLJUUmeCe6scp601rj3qo5Yua9JaWZPbkGyiHI_VyYmexHvcXX_avd-SDJY6qLUqXneSZkcMfXNOoCq8vAvruVCaxPowXnEICytklbWMO5i_7XlrDgpQ_bf8y9WWaLjI03rTTm_MOUcP_2u0j2AzupjszVImHsMd127B_VGAp77cgg3Kxkkp3p7Axw_npy0yZp-hG8guOsdmngWoT-z_zVyh9LCQKge_zNC7ZU3MyMO-hyRWjG6gzbG0y4MFi8tt-HI0-nz4lsccC9xKnSw4mrdSaILozhOP_BSo43UtC-WckGVqPVrExGMLn-S-yBsjVONqbzOc5o1BWu_AWjtr3VNgzvqmMSZPG2Ux6E4NhTY69TIrpRfWDSDpqV7ZCEBOeTDOqhCIqKJaEq1CohFkqazKAbxcdTlfom_8rfEBsXLVkICzw4PZfFpFPawMOlSuqbVK6P-cVM54J8nJLbLE5WIAe70gVFGbu0qgWSwxVhPJAF717L5R_ecRsSg_vxpfTc_QIqW00ERHT5790wt34UEaREryNNuDtcX8wj2He_bH4rSbD2H9YDSefBoGfRiG1QUsj5P3VP4cYf3k3fHk6zWWqQeu |
| linkProvider | Springer Nature |
| linkToHtml | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMw1V1LbxMxEB6VFAQX3ohAAR_gArK69np3vUgI8WjVqG0IUpHKaXG8dqhUNiFJQemP4jcy4-xm2wO99cAlh8T7cPzNeMZjfx_Ac6UyrfJYcG-141Ra47lHe8yVi0s51NYkNohNZP2-PjzMB2vwpzkLQ9sqG58YHHU5trRGvikQmhnGyyJ6O_nJSTWKqquNhMYSFrtu8RtTttmb3kcc3xdSbm8dfNjhtaoAtyqP5hwNOhM5kVInkcceCET1cKhS7ZxQmbQefUDksYWPEp8mpRG6dENvY5zYjBEixvtegXWFYNcdWB_09gdfGwTLmIiC2pOfkrKnrCVgI3Z3BP3KIjAYI-GoVQCQBAK1tq6ZxETP1xLsoXciqu-kXUWiKSioPUqMlThFD3XpVuh0c6YooOA443PioeHZuck3aBScC6xXteBwgqnyphqdmWy3b_1vw3QbbtZhPXu3tMM7sOaqu3BtK1CCL-7B50-Towot4DXDeJudzBwbexY4VfGi7-YUzZQFTSL8XximEayspY_Yj6AWxuio3xQ_7XIHx3xxH75cSn8eQKcaV-4hMGd9WRqTyFJblebSUA6ZS6_iTHlhXReiZpQLWzO9k-DIcREyPp0WS2AUCAzihlVF1oWXq0smS5qTixq_J-isGhJDefhiPB0VtcMrDEaurhzmOqL-OaWd8U5RNpHGkUtEFzYaABW125wVLXq68KoB45mf__1GrMZr2_h0dIyuX9KKHu3xeXTx857B9Z2D_b1ir9fffQw3ZLAZxWW8AZ359MQ9gav21_xoNn1amzyDb5cN37-c1IR4 |
| linkToPdf | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMw1V3LbhMxFL0qKSA2vBGBAl7ABmRl7PHMeJAQ6lNURSEgkLqbOh47VCqTkKSg9NP4Ou51ZjLtgu66YJNF4nk4PvflxzkAL5XKtMpjwb3VjtPSGs892mOuXFzKobYmsUFsIuv39eFhPliDP81ZGNpW2fjE4KjLsaU58p5AaGaYL4uo5-ttEYOdvfeTn5wUpGiltZHTWELkwC1-Y_k2e7e_g2P9Ssq93a_bH3itMMCtyqM5R-PORE4E1UnksTcCET4cqlQ7J1QmrUd_EHls4aPEp0lphC7d0NsYg5wxQsR432uwrtMskh1YH2xvbX5p0CxjIg1qT4FKqqSyloyNmN7RAFbWgYkZiUitkoEkkKm1a5xJTFR9Ldkeeiqi_U7aGSUKR0H5UWLexCmTqJdxhU57M0XJBcfoz4mThmcXAnHQK7iQZK_WhcNppsqbanQu8O7d-Z-H7C7crtN9trm0z3uw5qr7cGM3UIUvHsDnT5PjCi3jLcM8nJ3OHBt7FrhW8aLv5gzNlwWtIvyPGJYXrKwlkdiPoCLG6AjgFD_tcmfHfPEQvl1Jfx5BpxpX7jEwZ31ZGpPIUluV5tJQbZlLr-JMeWFdF6JmxAtbM8CTEMlJESpBnRZLkBQIEuKMVUXWhderSyZL-pPLGm8RjFYNibk8fDGejoraERYGM1pXDnMdUf-c0s54p6jKSOPIJaILGw2YitqdzooWSV140wDz3M__fiNWY7dtfDY6wZAgaaaP9v48ufx5L-AmYrb4uN8_eAq3ZDAfxWW8AZ359NQ9g-v21_x4Nn1eWz-Do6tG71-iR4zo |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Opinion%3Athe+use+of+natural+hazard+modeling+for+decision+making+under+uncertainty&rft.jtitle=%E6%A3%AE%E6%9E%97%E7%94%9F%E6%80%81%E7%B3%BB%E7%BB%9F%EF%BC%88%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E7%89%88%EF%BC%89&rft.au=David+E+Calkin&rft.au=Mike+Mentis&rft.date=2015-04-23&rft.pub=Forestry+Sciences+Laboratory%2C+US+Forest+Service+Rocky+Mountain+Research+Station%2C+800+East+Beckwith%2C+Missoula%2C+MT+59801%2C+USA%25Business%26the+environment%2C+Postnet+Suite+10102%2C+Private+Bag+X7005%2C+Hil+crest+3650%2C+South+Africa&rft.issn=2095-6355&rft.issue=2&rft.spage=139&rft.epage=142&rft_id=info:doi/10.1186%2Fs40663-015-0034-7&rft.externalDocID=zglx_e201502008 |
| thumbnail_s | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/image/custom?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wanfangdata.com.cn%2Fimages%2FPeriodicalImages%2Fzglx-e%2Fzglx-e.jpg |