Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program

Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that Calif...

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Vydáno v:	Journal of the American Statistical Association Ročník 105; číslo 490; s. 493 - 505
Hlavní autoři:	Abadie, Alberto, Diamond, Alexis, Hainmueller, Jens
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Alexandria, VA American Statistical Association 01.06.2010 Assoc Taylor & Francis Ltd
Témata:	1970-2000 Anti smoking movements Applications Applications and Case Studies Biology, psychology, social sciences Case studies Cigarette smoking Cigarettes Comparative analysis Estimation methods Estimators Exact sciences and technology General topics Geometry Inference Legislation Linear inference, regression Mathematics Millennium Placebos Politisches Ziel Probability and statistics Propositions Public policy Rauchen Regions Sales Sciences and techniques of general use Smoking Smoking cessation Social sciences Statistics Test Tobacco Tobacco industry Tobacco taxes USA Vergleich Wissenschaftliche Methode Tobacco control legislation Social sciences Treatment efficiency Statistical estimation Case control study Implementation Sociometry Statistical method Statistical regression Sales Treatment effects Proposition 99 Treatment effect Observational studies Comparative study Method study
ISSN:	0162-1459, 1537-274X
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Popis
Shrnutí:	Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that, following Proposition 99, tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Using new inferential methods proposed in this article, we demonstrate the significance of our estimates. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate.
Bibliografie:	SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Commentary-1 content type line 14
ISSN:	0162-1459 1537-274X
DOI:	10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746