Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program

Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that Calif...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 105; no. 490; pp. 493 - 505
Main Authors: Abadie, Alberto, Diamond, Alexis, Hainmueller, Jens
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Alexandria, VA American Statistical Association 01.06.2010
Assoc
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects:
1970-2000
Anti smoking movements
Applications
Applications and Case Studies
Biology, psychology, social sciences
Case studies
Cigarette smoking
Cigarettes
Comparative analysis
Estimation methods
Estimators
Exact sciences and technology
General topics
Geometry
Inference
Legislation
Linear inference, regression
Mathematics
Millennium
Placebos
Politisches Ziel
Probability and statistics
Propositions
Public policy
Rauchen
Regions
Sales
Sciences and techniques of general use
Smoking
Smoking cessation
Social sciences
Statistics
Test
Tobacco
Tobacco industry
Tobacco taxes
USA
Vergleich
Wissenschaftliche Methode
Tobacco control legislation
Social sciences
Treatment efficiency
Statistical estimation
Case control study
Implementation
Sociometry
Statistical method
Statistical regression
Sales
Treatment effects
Proposition 99
Treatment effect
Observational studies
Comparative study
Method study
ISSN:0162-1459, 1537-274X
Online Access:Get full text
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Description
Summary:Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that, following Proposition 99, tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Using new inferential methods proposed in this article, we demonstrate the significance of our estimates. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate.
Bibliography:SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Commentary-1
content type line 14
ISSN:0162-1459
1537-274X
DOI:10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746