Extreme influenza epidemics and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest
There is compelling evidence for an association between influenza epidemics and major adverse cardiovascular events. However, the role of extreme influenza epidemics as a trigger of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear. Thus, we evaluated the potential association between extreme influen...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International journal of cardiology Jg. 263; S. 158 - 162 |
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| Sprache: | Englisch |
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Elsevier B.V
15.07.2018
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| ISSN: | 0167-5273, 1874-1754, 1874-1754 |
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| Abstract | There is compelling evidence for an association between influenza epidemics and major adverse cardiovascular events. However, the role of extreme influenza epidemics as a trigger of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear. Thus, we evaluated the potential association between extreme influenza epidemics and incidence of OHCA.
We used a quasi-experimental design with time-series analysis of national registry data for cases of OHCA from all 47 prefectures of Japan during influenza seasons between 2005 and 2014. A Poisson regression time-series model with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate prefecture-specific effects of influenza epidemics on OHCA. A multivariate meta-analysis was conducted for nationally pooled estimates.
In total, 481,516 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported during the study period. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was estimated as the 0th percentile for influenza incidence. The overall cumulative relative risk versus the MMP was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.16–1.34) for extreme influenza epidemics (at the 99th percentile of influenza incidence). The effect of extreme influenza epidemics was significant for lag periods of 1.5–7.1 and 17.9–21 days. Multivariate random-effects meta-analysis indicated significant spatial heterogeneity among prefectures (Cochran Q test, p = 0.011; I2 = 23.2%).
Extreme influenza epidemics are associated with higher risk of OHCA. Our findings suggest that several weeks' prevention for extreme influenza infections should be implemented to reduce the risk of OHCA.
•We investigated association between extreme influenza epidemics and OHCA.•Extreme influenza epidemics are associated with higher risk of OHCA.•There was significant spatial heterogeneity between prefectures. |
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| AbstractList | There is compelling evidence for an association between influenza epidemics and major adverse cardiovascular events. However, the role of extreme influenza epidemics as a trigger of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear. Thus, we evaluated the potential association between extreme influenza epidemics and incidence of OHCA.
We used a quasi-experimental design with time-series analysis of national registry data for cases of OHCA from all 47 prefectures of Japan during influenza seasons between 2005 and 2014. A Poisson regression time-series model with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate prefecture-specific effects of influenza epidemics on OHCA. A multivariate meta-analysis was conducted for nationally pooled estimates.
In total, 481,516 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported during the study period. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was estimated as the 0th percentile for influenza incidence. The overall cumulative relative risk versus the MMP was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.16–1.34) for extreme influenza epidemics (at the 99th percentile of influenza incidence). The effect of extreme influenza epidemics was significant for lag periods of 1.5–7.1 and 17.9–21 days. Multivariate random-effects meta-analysis indicated significant spatial heterogeneity among prefectures (Cochran Q test, p = 0.011; I2 = 23.2%).
Extreme influenza epidemics are associated with higher risk of OHCA. Our findings suggest that several weeks' prevention for extreme influenza infections should be implemented to reduce the risk of OHCA.
•We investigated association between extreme influenza epidemics and OHCA.•Extreme influenza epidemics are associated with higher risk of OHCA.•There was significant spatial heterogeneity between prefectures. There is compelling evidence for an association between influenza epidemics and major adverse cardiovascular events. However, the role of extreme influenza epidemics as a trigger of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear. Thus, we evaluated the potential association between extreme influenza epidemics and incidence of OHCA.INTRODUCTIONThere is compelling evidence for an association between influenza epidemics and major adverse cardiovascular events. However, the role of extreme influenza epidemics as a trigger of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear. Thus, we evaluated the potential association between extreme influenza epidemics and incidence of OHCA.We used a quasi-experimental design with time-series analysis of national registry data for cases of OHCA from all 47 prefectures of Japan during influenza seasons between 2005 and 2014. A Poisson regression time-series model with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate prefecture-specific effects of influenza epidemics on OHCA. A multivariate meta-analysis was conducted for nationally pooled estimates.METHODSWe used a quasi-experimental design with time-series analysis of national registry data for cases of OHCA from all 47 prefectures of Japan during influenza seasons between 2005 and 2014. A Poisson regression time-series model with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate prefecture-specific effects of influenza epidemics on OHCA. A multivariate meta-analysis was conducted for nationally pooled estimates.In total, 481,516 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported during the study period. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was estimated as the 0th percentile for influenza incidence. The overall cumulative relative risk versus the MMP was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.34) for extreme influenza epidemics (at the 99th percentile of influenza incidence). The effect of extreme influenza epidemics was significant for lag periods of 1.5-7.1 and 17.9-21 days. Multivariate random-effects meta-analysis indicated significant spatial heterogeneity among prefectures (Cochran Q test, p = 0.011; I2 = 23.2%).RESULTSIn total, 481,516 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported during the study period. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was estimated as the 0th percentile for influenza incidence. The overall cumulative relative risk versus the MMP was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.34) for extreme influenza epidemics (at the 99th percentile of influenza incidence). The effect of extreme influenza epidemics was significant for lag periods of 1.5-7.1 and 17.9-21 days. Multivariate random-effects meta-analysis indicated significant spatial heterogeneity among prefectures (Cochran Q test, p = 0.011; I2 = 23.2%).Extreme influenza epidemics are associated with higher risk of OHCA. Our findings suggest that several weeks' prevention for extreme influenza infections should be implemented to reduce the risk of OHCA.CONCLUSIONExtreme influenza epidemics are associated with higher risk of OHCA. Our findings suggest that several weeks' prevention for extreme influenza infections should be implemented to reduce the risk of OHCA. There is compelling evidence for an association between influenza epidemics and major adverse cardiovascular events. However, the role of extreme influenza epidemics as a trigger of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear. Thus, we evaluated the potential association between extreme influenza epidemics and incidence of OHCA. We used a quasi-experimental design with time-series analysis of national registry data for cases of OHCA from all 47 prefectures of Japan during influenza seasons between 2005 and 2014. A Poisson regression time-series model with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate prefecture-specific effects of influenza epidemics on OHCA. A multivariate meta-analysis was conducted for nationally pooled estimates. In total, 481,516 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported during the study period. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was estimated as the 0th percentile for influenza incidence. The overall cumulative relative risk versus the MMP was 1.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.34) for extreme influenza epidemics (at the 99th percentile of influenza incidence). The effect of extreme influenza epidemics was significant for lag periods of 1.5-7.1 and 17.9-21 days. Multivariate random-effects meta-analysis indicated significant spatial heterogeneity among prefectures (Cochran Q test, p = 0.011; I = 23.2%). Extreme influenza epidemics are associated with higher risk of OHCA. Our findings suggest that several weeks' prevention for extreme influenza infections should be implemented to reduce the risk of OHCA. |
| Author | Hagihara, Akihito Onozuka, Daisuke |
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| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29754914$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ihj_2020_10_001 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_vaccine_2020_11_028 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_vaccine_2024_02_008 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0226936 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ijcard_2022_04_069 crossref_primary_10_1093_postmj_qgaf057 crossref_primary_10_1097_MD_0000000000029535 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_resuscitation_2021_02_036 crossref_primary_10_1097_CCM_0000000000004207 crossref_primary_10_3390_jcm11144143 crossref_primary_10_3390_medicina58081121 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_resuscitation_2023_109760 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12873_021_00431_5 crossref_primary_10_3390_biomedicines9080959 crossref_primary_10_2478_ii_2018_0023 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_12075_x crossref_primary_10_1055_a_2015_1244 |
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| Keywords | Statistical analysis Epidemiology Influenza Sudden death Cardiac arrest |
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| SubjectTerms | Aged Cardiac arrest Epidemics - prevention & control Epidemiology Female Humans Influenza Influenza, Human - diagnosis Influenza, Human - epidemiology Japan - epidemiology Male Middle Aged Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest - diagnosis Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest - epidemiology Registries Risk Factors Statistical analysis Sudden death |
| Title | Extreme influenza epidemics and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest |
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