Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information – A review of the literature

Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human forecast...

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Vydáno v:European journal of operational research Ročník 213; číslo 3; s. 459 - 469
Hlavní autoři: Leitner, Johannes, Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 16.09.2011
Elsevier
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
Edice:European Journal of Operational Research
Témata:
Adjustment of forecasts
Applied sciences
Decision theory
Decision theory. Utility theory
Economics
Exact sciences and technology
Expectation formation
Experimental economics
Experimental economics Heuristics Expectation formation Judgmental forecasting Adjustment of forecasts Revision of forecasts
Forecasting techniques
General aspects
Heuristics
Inference from stochastic processes; time series analysis
Information sources
Judgmental forecasting
Mathematics
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Probability and statistics
Revision of forecasts
Sciences and techniques of general use
Statistics
Studies
Time series
Expectation formation
Judgmental forecasting
Revision of forecasts
Experimental economics
Adjustment of forecasts
Heuristics
Economic analysis
Decision making
Empirical method
Time series
Forecast model
Forecasting
Economy
Sales
Information source
Decision theory
Heuristic method
Multidisciplinary
ISSN:0377-2217, 1872-6860
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Shrnutí:Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human forecasting behavior are interdisciplinary issues and have been subject to extensive empirical field and laboratory research. We here review the relevant experimental literature, demonstrate the significance of these results for decision science in general, and summarize the implications for practical forecasting applications.
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ObjectType-Literature Review-3
ISSN:0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2011.01.006