Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information – A review of the literature

Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human forecast...

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Vydané v:	European journal of operational research Ročník 213; číslo 3; s. 459 - 469
Hlavní autori:	Leitner, Johannes, Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 16.09.2011 Elsevier Elsevier Sequoia S.A
Edícia:	European Journal of Operational Research
Predmet:	Adjustment of forecasts Applied sciences Decision theory Decision theory. Utility theory Economics Exact sciences and technology Expectation formation Experimental economics Experimental economics Heuristics Expectation formation Judgmental forecasting Adjustment of forecasts Revision of forecasts Forecasting techniques General aspects Heuristics Inference from stochastic processes; time series analysis Information sources Judgmental forecasting Mathematics Operational research and scientific management Operational research. Management science Probability and statistics Revision of forecasts Sciences and techniques of general use Statistics Studies Time series Expectation formation Judgmental forecasting Revision of forecasts Experimental economics Adjustment of forecasts Heuristics Economic analysis Decision making Empirical method Time series Forecast model Forecasting Economy Sales Information source Decision theory Heuristic method Multidisciplinary
ISSN:	0377-2217, 1872-6860
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Popis
Shrnutí:	Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human forecasting behavior are interdisciplinary issues and have been subject to extensive empirical field and laboratory research. We here review the relevant experimental literature, demonstrate the significance of these results for decision science in general, and summarize the implications for practical forecasting applications.
Bibliografia:	ObjectType-Article-2 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Literature Review-3
ISSN:	0377-2217 1872-6860
DOI:	10.1016/j.ejor.2011.01.006