Container fleet renewal considering multiple sulfur reduction technologies and uncertain markets amidst COVID-19
The onset of 2020 is marked by stricter restrictions on maritime sulfur emissions and the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this background, liner companies now face the challenge to find suitable sulfur reduction technologies, make reasonable decisions on fleet renewal, and prepare...
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| Published in: | Journal of cleaner production Vol. 317; p. 128361 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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01.10.2021
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| ISSN: | 0959-6526, 1879-1786 |
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| Abstract | The onset of 2020 is marked by stricter restrictions on maritime sulfur emissions and the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this background, liner companies now face the challenge to find suitable sulfur reduction technologies, make reasonable decisions on fleet renewal, and prepare stable operation plans under the highly uncertain shipping market. Considering three sulfur reduction technologies, namely, fuel-switching, scrubber, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) dual-fuel engine, this paper develops a robust optimization model based on two-stage stochastic linear programming (SLP) to formulate a decision plan for container fleet, which can deal with various uncertainties in future: freight demand, ship charter rate, fuel price, retrofit time and Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) ratio. The main decision contents include ship acquisition, ship retrofit, ship sale, ship charter, route assignment, and speed optimization. The effectiveness of our plan was verified through a case study on two liner routes from the Far East to Northwest America, operated by COSCO Shipping Lines. The results from SLP model show that large-capacity fuel-switching ships and their LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits should be included in the long-term investment and operation plan; slow-steaming is an important operational decision for ocean liner shipping; if the current SECA boundary is not further expanded or the sulfur emission restrictions not further tightened, the scrubber ship will have no advantage in investment cost and operation. However, considering the probabilities of more flexible scenarios, the results from the robust model suggest that it is beneficial to install scrubber on medium-capacity fuel-switching ships, and carry out more LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits for large-capacity fuel-switching ships. Compared with SLP, this robust strategy greatly reduces sulfur emissions while slightly pushing up carbon emissions.
•A robust optimization model was established based on two-stage stochastic linear programming.•Three sulfur reduction technologies were integrated into fleet renewal decisions.•Various uncertainties in liner shipping market amidst COVID-19 were considered.•Strategic and tactical decisions were optimized at the same time.•A real case of COSCO-Liner under the influence of COVID-19 is studied to demonstrate the effectiveness. |
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| AbstractList | The onset of 2020 is marked by stricter restrictions on maritime sulfur emissions and the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this background, liner companies now face the challenge to find suitable sulfur reduction technologies, make reasonable decisions on fleet renewal, and prepare stable operation plans under the highly uncertain shipping market. Considering three sulfur reduction technologies, namely, fuel-switching, scrubber, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) dual-fuel engine, this paper develops a robust optimization model based on two-stage stochastic linear programming (SLP) to formulate a decision plan for container fleet, which can deal with various uncertainties in future: freight demand, ship charter rate, fuel price, retrofit time and Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) ratio. The main decision contents include ship acquisition, ship retrofit, ship sale, ship charter, route assignment, and speed optimization. The effectiveness of our plan was verified through a case study on two liner routes from the Far East to Northwest America, operated by COSCO Shipping Lines. The results from SLP model show that large-capacity fuel-switching ships and their LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits should be included in the long-term investment and operation plan; slow-steaming is an important operational decision for ocean liner shipping; if the current SECA boundary is not further expanded or the sulfur emission restrictions not further tightened, the scrubber ship will have no advantage in investment cost and operation. However, considering the probabilities of more flexible scenarios, the results from the robust model suggest that it is beneficial to install scrubber on medium-capacity fuel-switching ships, and carry out more LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits for large-capacity fuel-switching ships. Compared with SLP, this robust strategy greatly reduces sulfur emissions while slightly pushing up carbon emissions. The onset of 2020 is marked by stricter restrictions on maritime sulfur emissions and the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this background, liner companies now face the challenge to find suitable sulfur reduction technologies, make reasonable decisions on fleet renewal, and prepare stable operation plans under the highly uncertain shipping market. Considering three sulfur reduction technologies, namely, fuel-switching, scrubber, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) dual-fuel engine, this paper develops a robust optimization model based on two-stage stochastic linear programming (SLP) to formulate a decision plan for container fleet, which can deal with various uncertainties in future: freight demand, ship charter rate, fuel price, retrofit time and Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) ratio. The main decision contents include ship acquisition, ship retrofit, ship sale, ship charter, route assignment, and speed optimization. The effectiveness of our plan was verified through a case study on two liner routes from the Far East to Northwest America, operated by COSCO Shipping Lines. The results from SLP model show that large-capacity fuel-switching ships and their LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits should be included in the long-term investment and operation plan; slow-steaming is an important operational decision for ocean liner shipping; if the current SECA boundary is not further expanded or the sulfur emission restrictions not further tightened, the scrubber ship will have no advantage in investment cost and operation. However, considering the probabilities of more flexible scenarios, the results from the robust model suggest that it is beneficial to install scrubber on medium-capacity fuel-switching ships, and carry out more LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits for large-capacity fuel-switching ships. Compared with SLP, this robust strategy greatly reduces sulfur emissions while slightly pushing up carbon emissions.The onset of 2020 is marked by stricter restrictions on maritime sulfur emissions and the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this background, liner companies now face the challenge to find suitable sulfur reduction technologies, make reasonable decisions on fleet renewal, and prepare stable operation plans under the highly uncertain shipping market. Considering three sulfur reduction technologies, namely, fuel-switching, scrubber, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) dual-fuel engine, this paper develops a robust optimization model based on two-stage stochastic linear programming (SLP) to formulate a decision plan for container fleet, which can deal with various uncertainties in future: freight demand, ship charter rate, fuel price, retrofit time and Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) ratio. The main decision contents include ship acquisition, ship retrofit, ship sale, ship charter, route assignment, and speed optimization. The effectiveness of our plan was verified through a case study on two liner routes from the Far East to Northwest America, operated by COSCO Shipping Lines. The results from SLP model show that large-capacity fuel-switching ships and their LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits should be included in the long-term investment and operation plan; slow-steaming is an important operational decision for ocean liner shipping; if the current SECA boundary is not further expanded or the sulfur emission restrictions not further tightened, the scrubber ship will have no advantage in investment cost and operation. However, considering the probabilities of more flexible scenarios, the results from the robust model suggest that it is beneficial to install scrubber on medium-capacity fuel-switching ships, and carry out more LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits for large-capacity fuel-switching ships. Compared with SLP, this robust strategy greatly reduces sulfur emissions while slightly pushing up carbon emissions. The onset of 2020 is marked by stricter restrictions on maritime sulfur emissions and the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this background, liner companies now face the challenge to find suitable sulfur reduction technologies, make reasonable decisions on fleet renewal, and prepare stable operation plans under the highly uncertain shipping market. Considering three sulfur reduction technologies, namely, fuel-switching, scrubber, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) dual-fuel engine, this paper develops a robust optimization model based on two-stage stochastic linear programming (SLP) to formulate a decision plan for container fleet, which can deal with various uncertainties in future: freight demand, ship charter rate, fuel price, retrofit time and Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) ratio. The main decision contents include ship acquisition, ship retrofit, ship sale, ship charter, route assignment, and speed optimization. The effectiveness of our plan was verified through a case study on two liner routes from the Far East to Northwest America, operated by COSCO Shipping Lines. The results from SLP model show that large-capacity fuel-switching ships and their LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits should be included in the long-term investment and operation plan; slow-steaming is an important operational decision for ocean liner shipping; if the current SECA boundary is not further expanded or the sulfur emission restrictions not further tightened, the scrubber ship will have no advantage in investment cost and operation. However, considering the probabilities of more flexible scenarios, the results from the robust model suggest that it is beneficial to install scrubber on medium-capacity fuel-switching ships, and carry out more LNG dual-fuel engine retrofits for large-capacity fuel-switching ships. Compared with SLP, this robust strategy greatly reduces sulfur emissions while slightly pushing up carbon emissions. •A robust optimization model was established based on two-stage stochastic linear programming.•Three sulfur reduction technologies were integrated into fleet renewal decisions.•Various uncertainties in liner shipping market amidst COVID-19 were considered.•Strategic and tactical decisions were optimized at the same time.•A real case of COSCO-Liner under the influence of COVID-19 is studied to demonstrate the effectiveness. |
| ArticleNumber | 128361 |
| Author | Zhao, Yuzhe Zhou, Jingmiao Ye, Jiajun |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Yuzhe orcidid: 0000-0002-5852-6617 surname: Zhao fullname: Zhao, Yuzhe email: zhaoyuzhe@dlmu.edu.cn organization: Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Jiajun surname: Ye fullname: Ye, Jiajun email: yejiajun0940@163.com organization: Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Jingmiao orcidid: 0000-0001-5216-4304 surname: Zhou fullname: Zhou, Jingmiao email: zhoujingmiao123@163.com organization: Collaborative Innovation Center for Transport Studies, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1016/j.omega.2017.07.007 10.1080/030888300286680 10.1016/j.trc.2015.04.019 10.1080/03088839.2013.819132 10.1080/03088839.2010.486635 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.06.025 10.3390/su13010237 10.1016/j.trd.2013.12.001 10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.954 10.1016/j.trc.2012.05.002 10.1016/j.trb.2020.11.003 10.1016/j.trd.2019.02.001 10.1016/j.tre.2014.09.010 10.3233/ISP-1979-2629402 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.09.029 10.1016/j.omega.2019.07.003 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.05.015 10.1016/j.trd.2019.08.009 10.1111/j.1475-3995.1999.tb00167.x 10.1016/j.tre.2020.102004 10.1080/03088839.2013.821210 10.1080/03088839600000087 10.1287/trsc.2014.0566 10.1080/03088839.2016.1237781 10.1016/j.trc.2014.12.010 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102641 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2014.04.013 10.1057/jors.1971.55 10.1016/j.trd.2018.12.012 10.1016/j.tre.2016.03.013 |
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| Keywords | Sulfur reduction technologies Maritime fleet renewal problem (MFRP) Robust optimization Stochastic linear programming Sulfur emission control area (SECA) |
| Language | English |
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| SubjectTerms | carbon case studies COVID-19 infection energy costs freight Maritime fleet renewal problem (MFRP) markets Robust optimization Stochastic linear programming sulfur Sulfur emission control area (SECA) Sulfur reduction technologies |
| Title | Container fleet renewal considering multiple sulfur reduction technologies and uncertain markets amidst COVID-19 |
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