Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs

Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat su...

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Vydáno v:	Global change biology Ročník 29; číslo 23; s. 6606 - 6619
Hlavní autoři:	Thompson, Murray S. A., Couce, Elena, Schratzberger, Michaela, Lynam, Christopher P.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2023 John Wiley and Sons Inc
Témata:	Additives Animals Bayes Theorem Bayesian analysis Bayesian theory biodiversity Biological Sciences Climate Change climate change scenarios Climate effects Climate prediction Composition Ecosystem Ecosystem structure ecosystem structure and function ecosystems Feeding Fish fish feeding guilds Fishes - physiology Food Chain Food chains Food webs Guilds habitat suitability Habitats Marine fish Marine fishes Mass ratios Nutrient uptake Oceans and Seas Piscivores planktivores Plankton feeders Predators Prey Probability theory Regression analysis Regression models Shelf seas Size distribution species distribution modelling Species richness Uptake climate change scenarios biodiversity ecosystem structure and function fish feeding guilds species distribution modelling habitat suitability
ISSN:	1354-1013, 1365-2486, 1365-2486
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Abstract	Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator–prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning. We model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). We therefore expect profound and complex changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, as shifts in the distributions of species performing critical ecosystem functions fundamentally alter how and where energy fluxes through the system.
AbstractList	Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator-prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning. Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator-prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning.Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator-prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning. Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator–prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning. We model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). We therefore expect profound and complex changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, as shifts in the distributions of species performing critical ecosystem functions fundamentally alter how and where energy fluxes through the system. Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator–prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning. We model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). We therefore expect profound and complex changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, as shifts in the distributions of species performing critical ecosystem functions fundamentally alter how and where energy fluxes through the system.
Author	Couce, Elena Schratzberger, Michaela Thompson, Murray S. A. Lynam, Christopher P.
AuthorAffiliation	1 Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft Laboratory Lowestoft UK
AuthorAffiliation_xml	– name: 1 Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft Laboratory Lowestoft UK
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Murray S. A. orcidid: 0000-0002-9567-175X surname: Thompson fullname: Thompson, Murray S. A. email: murray.thompson@cefas.gov.uk organization: Lowestoft Laboratory – sequence: 2 givenname: Elena orcidid: 0000-0002-3945-462X surname: Couce fullname: Couce, Elena organization: Lowestoft Laboratory – sequence: 3 givenname: Michaela orcidid: 0000-0002-4973-6698 surname: Schratzberger fullname: Schratzberger, Michaela organization: Lowestoft Laboratory – sequence: 4 givenname: Christopher P. orcidid: 0000-0001-5481-8033 surname: Lynam fullname: Lynam, Christopher P. organization: Lowestoft Laboratory
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Copyright	2023 Crown copyright. published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. 2023 Crown copyright. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. 2023. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
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Snippet	Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes...
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SubjectTerms	Additives Animals Bayes Theorem Bayesian analysis Bayesian theory biodiversity Biological Sciences Climate Change climate change scenarios Climate effects Climate prediction Composition Ecosystem Ecosystem structure ecosystem structure and function ecosystems Feeding Fish fish feeding guilds Fishes - physiology Food Chain Food chains Food webs Guilds habitat suitability Habitats Marine fish Marine fishes Mass ratios Nutrient uptake Oceans and Seas Piscivores planktivores Plankton feeders Predators Prey Probability theory Regression analysis Regression models Shelf seas Size distribution species distribution modelling Species richness Uptake
Title	Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs
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