Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs

Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat su...

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Vydáno v:Global change biology Ročník 29; číslo 23; s. 6606 - 6619
Hlavní autoři: Thompson, Murray S. A., Couce, Elena, Schratzberger, Michaela, Lynam, Christopher P.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2023
John Wiley and Sons Inc
Témata:
Additives
Animals
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian theory
biodiversity
Biological Sciences
Climate Change
climate change scenarios
Climate effects
Climate prediction
Composition
Ecosystem
Ecosystem structure
ecosystem structure and function
ecosystems
Feeding
Fish
fish feeding guilds
Fishes - physiology
Food Chain
Food chains
Food webs
Guilds
habitat suitability
Habitats
Marine fish
Marine fishes
Mass ratios
Nutrient uptake
Oceans and Seas
Piscivores
planktivores
Plankton feeders
Predators
Prey
Probability theory
Regression analysis
Regression models
Shelf seas
Size distribution
species distribution modelling
Species richness
Uptake
climate change scenarios
biodiversity
ecosystem structure and function
fish feeding guilds
species distribution modelling
habitat suitability
ISSN:1354-1013, 1365-2486, 1365-2486
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Shrnutí:Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator–prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning. We model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). We therefore expect profound and complex changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, as shifts in the distributions of species performing critical ecosystem functions fundamentally alter how and where energy fluxes through the system.
Bibliografie:ObjectType-Article-1
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ISSN:1354-1013
1365-2486
1365-2486
DOI:10.1111/gcb.16881