Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–—2008
The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has...
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| Vydané v: | The American economic review Ročník 102; číslo 2; s. 1029 - 1061 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Vydavateľské údaje: |
Nashville
American Economic Association
01.04.2012
American Economic Assoc |
| Predmet: | |
| ISSN: | 0002-8282, 1944-7981 |
| On-line prístup: | Získať plný text |
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| Abstract | The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. JEL: E32, E44, E52, G01, N10, N20 |
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| AbstractList | The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. JEL: E32, E44, E52, G01, N10, N20 The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for fourteen countries over the years 1870-2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870-2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. JEL: E32, E44, E52, G01, N10, N20 [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] |
| Author | Schularick, Moritz Taylor, Alan M. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Moritz surname: Schularick fullname: Schularick, Moritz – sequence: 2 givenname: Alan M. surname: Taylor fullname: Taylor, Alan M. |
| BackLink | http://www.econis.eu/PPNSET?PPN=720324874$$DView this record in ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | Copyright© 2012 The American Economic Association Copyright American Economic Association Apr 2012 |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: Copyright© 2012 The American Economic Association – notice: Copyright American Economic Association Apr 2012 |
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| References | Bernanke Ben S (p_304) 1992; 82 Rajan Raghuram G (p_355) 2005; 2005 p_357 p_358 Bordo Michael D (p_309) 2001; 32 p_331 p_353 p_299 Kashyap Anil K (p_340) 2008; 2008 Bernanke Ben S (p_303) 1983; 73 p_339 McKinnon Ronald I (p_347) 1997; 87 p_338 Friedman Benjamin M (p_328) 1992; 82 Minsky Hyman P (p_349) 1977; 16 Schularick Moritz (p_359) 2012; 102 p_350 Mishkin Frederic S (p_351) 2008; 12 p_302 p_344 p_320 p_343 Gurley J. G. (p_335) 1955; 45 Modigliani F. (p_352) 1958; 48 p_306 Gourinchas Pierre-Olivier (p_334) 2001; 1 p_326 p_305 |
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| Snippet | The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit,... |
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| SubjectTerms | 1870-2008 19th century 20th century 21st century Alliances Bank assets Bank credit Bank liabilities Bank loans Banking crises Central banks Credit Cross-national analysis Datasets Economic busts Economic crises Economic crisis Economic history Economic indicators Economic policy Economics Financial crisis Financial economics Historical analysis Industrialized nations Macroeconomics Monetary policy Money Money and credit Money supply Policy making Shorter Papers Stock prices Studies |
| Title | Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–—2008 |
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