Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California

Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increas...

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Published in:	Earth's future Vol. 7; no. 8; pp. 892 - 910
Main Authors:	Williams, A. Park, Abatzoglou, John T., Gershunov, Alexander, Guzman‐Morales, Janin, Bishop, Daniel A., Balch, Jennifer K., Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.08.2019 Wiley
Subjects:	Anthropogenic climate changes Anthropogenic factors Aridity Atmospheric models California Climate change Climate effects Climate models Coasts Computer simulation Drying Environmental impact Fatalities Forest & brush fires Forest fires Forests Fuels Human influences Offshore open climate campaign Precipitation Seasons Summer Summer climate Trends Vapor pressure Vegetation Warm seasons wildfire Wildfires Wind Winter Winter precipitation United States > US California
ISSN:	2328-4277, 2328-4277
Online Access:	Get full text
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Abstract	Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date. Plain Language Summary Since the early 1970s, California's annual wildfire extent increased fivefold, punctuated by extremely large and destructive wildfires in 2017 and 2018. This trend was mainly due to an eightfold increase in summertime forest‐fire area and was very likely driven by drying of fuels promoted by human‐induced warming. Warming effects were also apparent in the fall by enhancing the odds that fuels are dry when strong fall wind events occur. The ability of dry fuels to promote large fires is nonlinear, which has allowed warming to become increasingly impactful. Human‐caused warming has already significantly enhanced wildfire activity in California, particularly in the forests of the Sierra Nevada and North Coast, and will likely continue to do so in the coming decades. Key Points Annual burned area in California increased fivefold during 1972–2018, mainly due to summer forest fire Anthropogenic warming very likely increased summer forest fire by drying fuels; this trend is likely to continue Large fall fires are likely to become increasingly frequent with continued warming and possibly gradual declines in fall precipitation
AbstractList	Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date. Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date. Plain Language Summary Since the early 1970s, California's annual wildfire extent increased fivefold, punctuated by extremely large and destructive wildfires in 2017 and 2018. This trend was mainly due to an eightfold increase in summertime forest‐fire area and was very likely driven by drying of fuels promoted by human‐induced warming. Warming effects were also apparent in the fall by enhancing the odds that fuels are dry when strong fall wind events occur. The ability of dry fuels to promote large fires is nonlinear, which has allowed warming to become increasingly impactful. Human‐caused warming has already significantly enhanced wildfire activity in California, particularly in the forests of the Sierra Nevada and North Coast, and will likely continue to do so in the coming decades. Key Points Annual burned area in California increased fivefold during 1972–2018, mainly due to summer forest fire Anthropogenic warming very likely increased summer forest fire by drying fuels; this trend is likely to continue Large fall fires are likely to become increasingly frequent with continued warming and possibly gradual declines in fall precipitation Abstract Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date. Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by climate models. The response of summer forest‐fire area to VPD is exponential, meaning that warming has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between VPD and summer forest‐fire area strongly suggest that nearly all of the increase in summer forest‐fire area during 1972–2018 was driven by increased VPD. Climate change effects on summer wildfire were less evident in nonforested lands. In fall, wind events and delayed onset of winter precipitation are the dominant promoters of wildfire. While these variables did not change much over the past century, background warming and consequent fuel drying is increasingly enhancing the potential for large fall wildfires. Among the many processes important to California's diverse fire regimes, warming‐driven fuel drying is the clearest link between anthropogenic climate change and increased California wildfire activity to date. Since the early 1970s, California's annual wildfire extent increased fivefold, punctuated by extremely large and destructive wildfires in 2017 and 2018. This trend was mainly due to an eightfold increase in summertime forest‐fire area and was very likely driven by drying of fuels promoted by human‐induced warming. Warming effects were also apparent in the fall by enhancing the odds that fuels are dry when strong fall wind events occur. The ability of dry fuels to promote large fires is nonlinear, which has allowed warming to become increasingly impactful. Human‐caused warming has already significantly enhanced wildfire activity in California, particularly in the forests of the Sierra Nevada and North Coast, and will likely continue to do so in the coming decades. Annual burned area in California increased fivefold during 1972–2018, mainly due to summer forest fire Anthropogenic warming very likely increased summer forest fire by drying fuels; this trend is likely to continue Large fall fires are likely to become increasingly frequent with continued warming and possibly gradual declines in fall precipitation
Author	Gershunov, Alexander Guzman‐Morales, Janin Bishop, Daniel A. Balch, Jennifer K. Williams, A. Park Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Abatzoglou, John T.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: A. Park orcidid: 0000-0001-8176-8166 surname: Williams fullname: Williams, A. Park email: williams@ldeo.columbia.edu organization: Columbia University – sequence: 2 givenname: John T. orcidid: 0000-0001-7599-9750 surname: Abatzoglou fullname: Abatzoglou, John T. organization: University of Idaho – sequence: 3 givenname: Alexander orcidid: 0000-0002-6598-6638 surname: Gershunov fullname: Gershunov, Alexander organization: University of California, San Diego – sequence: 4 givenname: Janin orcidid: 0000-0001-6040-454X surname: Guzman‐Morales fullname: Guzman‐Morales, Janin organization: University of California, San Diego – sequence: 5 givenname: Daniel A. orcidid: 0000-0002-0394-5996 surname: Bishop fullname: Bishop, Daniel A. organization: Columbia University – sequence: 6 givenname: Jennifer K. surname: Balch fullname: Balch, Jennifer K. organization: University of Colorado Boulder – sequence: 7 givenname: Dennis P. orcidid: 0000-0002-0914-0726 surname: Lettenmaier fullname: Lettenmaier, Dennis P. organization: University of California
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Snippet	Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in... Abstract Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and...
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SubjectTerms	Anthropogenic climate changes Anthropogenic factors Aridity Atmospheric models California Climate change Climate effects Climate models Coasts Computer simulation Drying Environmental impact Fatalities Forest & brush fires Forest fires Forests Fuels Human influences Offshore open climate campaign Precipitation Seasons Summer Summer climate Trends Vapor pressure Vegetation Warm seasons wildfire Wildfires Wind Winter Winter precipitation
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Title	Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California
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