Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia’s water tower

Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress 1 , 2 . However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terre...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) Vol. 615; no. 7950; pp. 87 - 93
Main Authors: Zhang, Qiang, Shen, Zexi, Pokhrel, Yadu, Farinotti, Daniel, Singh, Vijay P., Xu, Chong-Yu, Wu, Wenhuan, Wang, Gang
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 02.03.2023
Nature Publishing Group
Subjects:
704/106/242
704/106/35/823
704/106/694/2739
704/106/694/2786
704/242
Altitude
Analysis of covariance
Asia
Atlantic Ocean
Climate change
Climate Change - statistics & numerical data
Conservation of Water Resources
Depletion
Desiccation
Emissions
Evaporation
Forecasting
Freezing
Glacier melting
Glaciers
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Ice Cover
Mountains
multidisciplinary
Particle dispersion
Precipitation
Propagation
Rain
Regions
Satellite Imagery
Satellite observation
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Snow
Sustainability
Tibet
Water resources
Water storage
Water stress
Water Supply - statistics & numerical data
Water towers
Westerlies
Tibet
Asia
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Eurasia
ISSN:0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)—known as Asia’s water tower—has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress 1 , 2 . However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003–2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA’s mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP’s TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020–2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress. Weakening blocking effect of the High Mountain Asia on the westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation from the southeast North Atlantic is demonstrated, leading to persistent northward expansion of terrestrial water storage deficit in the Tibet Plateau.
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ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/s41586-022-05643-8