An adaptive backpropagation algorithm for long-term electricity load forecasting

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to determine future demand for power in the short, medium, and long terms. However, research has identified that ANNs could cause inaccurate predictions of load when used for long-term forecasting. This inaccuracy is attributed to insufficient...

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Published in:	Neural computing & applications Vol. 34; no. 1; pp. 477 - 491
Main Authors:	Mohammed, Nooriya A., Al-Bazi, Ammar
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	London Springer London 01.01.2022 Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:	Adaptive algorithms Algorithms Artificial Intelligence Artificial neural networks Back propagation Back propagation networks Best practice Computational Biology/Bioinformatics Computational Science and Engineering Computer Science Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Datasets Economic forecasting Electric power demand Electrical loads Electricity Electricity consumption Energy consumption Forecasting Formulations Image Processing and Computer Vision Learning theory Machine learning Mathematical models Multilayers Neural networks Original Original Article Probability and Statistics in Computer Science Recurrent neural networks Long-term forecasting Recurrent neural networks Linear regression MLP neural networks Radial basis function networks Load demand Adaptive backpropagation
ISSN:	0941-0643, 1433-3058
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Abstract	Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to determine future demand for power in the short, medium, and long terms. However, research has identified that ANNs could cause inaccurate predictions of load when used for long-term forecasting. This inaccuracy is attributed to insufficient training data and increased accumulated errors, especially in long-term estimations. This study develops an improved ANN model with an Adaptive Backpropagation Algorithm (ABPA) for best practice in the forecasting long-term load demand of electricity. The ABPA includes proposing new forecasting formulations that adjust/adapt forecast values, so it takes into consideration the deviation between trained and future input datasets' different behaviours. The architecture of the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model, along with its traditional Backpropagation Algorithm (BPA), is used as a baseline for the proposed development. The forecasting formula is further improved by introducing adjustment factors to smooth out behavioural differences between the trained and new/future datasets. A computational study based on actual monthly electricity consumption inputs from 2011 to 2020, provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, is conducted to verify the proposed adaptive algorithm's performance. Different types of energy consumption and the electricity cut period (unsatisfied demand) factor are also considered in this study as vital factors. The developed ANN model, including its proposed ABPA, is then compared with traditional and popular prediction techniques such as regression and other advanced machine learning approaches, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), to justify its superiority amongst them. The results reveal that the most accurate long-term forecasts with the minimum Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of (1.195.650) and (0.045), respectively, are successfully achieved by applying the proposed ABPA. It can be concluded that the proposed ABPA, including the adjustment factor, enables traditional ANN techniques to be efficiently used for long-term forecasting of electricity load demand.
AbstractList	Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to determine future demand for power in the short, medium, and long terms. However, research has identified that ANNs could cause inaccurate predictions of load when used for long-term forecasting. This inaccuracy is attributed to insufficient training data and increased accumulated errors, especially in long-term estimations. This study develops an improved ANN model with an Adaptive Backpropagation Algorithm (ABPA) for best practice in the forecasting long-term load demand of electricity. The ABPA includes proposing new forecasting formulations that adjust/adapt forecast values, so it takes into consideration the deviation between trained and future input datasets' different behaviours. The architecture of the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model, along with its traditional Backpropagation Algorithm (BPA), is used as a baseline for the proposed development. The forecasting formula is further improved by introducing adjustment factors to smooth out behavioural differences between the trained and new/future datasets. A computational study based on actual monthly electricity consumption inputs from 2011 to 2020, provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, is conducted to verify the proposed adaptive algorithm's performance. Different types of energy consumption and the electricity cut period (unsatisfied demand) factor are also considered in this study as vital factors. The developed ANN model, including its proposed ABPA, is then compared with traditional and popular prediction techniques such as regression and other advanced machine learning approaches, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), to justify its superiority amongst them. The results reveal that the most accurate long-term forecasts with the minimum Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of (1.195.650) and (0.045), respectively, are successfully achieved by applying the proposed ABPA. It can be concluded that the proposed ABPA, including the adjustment factor, enables traditional ANN techniques to be efficiently used for long-term forecasting of electricity load demand. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to determine future demand for power in the short, medium, and long terms. However, research has identified that ANNs could cause inaccurate predictions of load when used for long-term forecasting. This inaccuracy is attributed to insufficient training data and increased accumulated errors, especially in long-term estimations. This study develops an improved ANN model with an Adaptive Backpropagation Algorithm (ABPA) for best practice in the forecasting long-term load demand of electricity. The ABPA includes proposing new forecasting formulations that adjust/adapt forecast values, so it takes into consideration the deviation between trained and future input datasets' different behaviours. The architecture of the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model, along with its traditional Backpropagation Algorithm (BPA), is used as a baseline for the proposed development. The forecasting formula is further improved by introducing adjustment factors to smooth out behavioural differences between the trained and new/future datasets. A computational study based on actual monthly electricity consumption inputs from 2011 to 2020, provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, is conducted to verify the proposed adaptive algorithm's performance. Different types of energy consumption and the electricity cut period (unsatisfied demand) factor are also considered in this study as vital factors. The developed ANN model, including its proposed ABPA, is then compared with traditional and popular prediction techniques such as regression and other advanced machine learning approaches, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), to justify its superiority amongst them. The results reveal that the most accurate long-term forecasts with the minimum Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of (1.195.650) and (0.045), respectively, are successfully achieved by applying the proposed ABPA. It can be concluded that the proposed ABPA, including the adjustment factor, enables traditional ANN techniques to be efficiently used for long-term forecasting of electricity load demand. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to determine future demand for power in the short, medium, and long terms. However, research has identified that ANNs could cause inaccurate predictions of load when used for long-term forecasting. This inaccuracy is attributed to insufficient training data and increased accumulated errors, especially in long-term estimations. This study develops an improved ANN model with an Adaptive Backpropagation Algorithm (ABPA) for best practice in the forecasting long-term load demand of electricity. The ABPA includes proposing new forecasting formulations that adjust/adapt forecast values, so it takes into consideration the deviation between trained and future input datasets' different behaviours. The architecture of the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model, along with its traditional Backpropagation Algorithm (BPA), is used as a baseline for the proposed development. The forecasting formula is further improved by introducing adjustment factors to smooth out behavioural differences between the trained and new/future datasets. A computational study based on actual monthly electricity consumption inputs from 2011 to 2020, provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, is conducted to verify the proposed adaptive algorithm's performance. Different types of energy consumption and the electricity cut period (unsatisfied demand) factor are also considered in this study as vital factors. The developed ANN model, including its proposed ABPA, is then compared with traditional and popular prediction techniques such as regression and other advanced machine learning approaches, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), to justify its superiority amongst them. The results reveal that the most accurate long-term forecasts with the minimum Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of (1.195.650) and (0.045), respectively, are successfully achieved by applying the proposed ABPA. It can be concluded that the proposed ABPA, including the adjustment factor, enables traditional ANN techniques to be efficiently used for long-term forecasting of electricity load demand.Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to determine future demand for power in the short, medium, and long terms. However, research has identified that ANNs could cause inaccurate predictions of load when used for long-term forecasting. This inaccuracy is attributed to insufficient training data and increased accumulated errors, especially in long-term estimations. This study develops an improved ANN model with an Adaptive Backpropagation Algorithm (ABPA) for best practice in the forecasting long-term load demand of electricity. The ABPA includes proposing new forecasting formulations that adjust/adapt forecast values, so it takes into consideration the deviation between trained and future input datasets' different behaviours. The architecture of the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model, along with its traditional Backpropagation Algorithm (BPA), is used as a baseline for the proposed development. The forecasting formula is further improved by introducing adjustment factors to smooth out behavioural differences between the trained and new/future datasets. A computational study based on actual monthly electricity consumption inputs from 2011 to 2020, provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, is conducted to verify the proposed adaptive algorithm's performance. Different types of energy consumption and the electricity cut period (unsatisfied demand) factor are also considered in this study as vital factors. The developed ANN model, including its proposed ABPA, is then compared with traditional and popular prediction techniques such as regression and other advanced machine learning approaches, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), to justify its superiority amongst them. The results reveal that the most accurate long-term forecasts with the minimum Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of (1.195.650) and (0.045), respectively, are successfully achieved by applying the proposed ABPA. It can be concluded that the proposed ABPA, including the adjustment factor, enables traditional ANN techniques to be efficiently used for long-term forecasting of electricity load demand.
Author	Al-Bazi, Ammar Mohammed, Nooriya A.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Nooriya A. surname: Mohammed fullname: Mohammed, Nooriya A. organization: Planning and Studies Office, Ministry of Electricity – sequence: 2 givenname: Ammar orcidid: 0000-0002-5057-4171 surname: Al-Bazi fullname: Al-Bazi, Ammar email: aa8535@coventry.ac.uk organization: School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Automotive Engineering, Coventry University
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Keywords	Long-term forecasting Recurrent neural networks Linear regression MLP neural networks Radial basis function networks Load demand Adaptive backpropagation
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Snippet	Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to determine future demand for power in the short, medium, and long terms. However, research has...
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SubjectTerms	Adaptive algorithms Algorithms Artificial Intelligence Artificial neural networks Back propagation Back propagation networks Best practice Computational Biology/Bioinformatics Computational Science and Engineering Computer Science Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Datasets Economic forecasting Electric power demand Electrical loads Electricity Electricity consumption Energy consumption Forecasting Formulations Image Processing and Computer Vision Learning theory Machine learning Mathematical models Multilayers Neural networks Original Original Article Probability and Statistics in Computer Science Recurrent neural networks
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Title	An adaptive backpropagation algorithm for long-term electricity load forecasting
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