The future of invasive terrestrial vertebrates in Europe under climate and land-use change
Predicting suitable locations for invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) under different scenarios of global change is essential for local and transboundary management aimed to prevent the spread of invasions. Using a spatial modelling approach adapted to invasive species, we identify range-s...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental research letters Jg. 16; H. 4; S. 44004 |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
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01.04.2021
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| ISSN: | 1748-9326, 1748-9326 |
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| Abstract | Predicting suitable locations for invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) under different scenarios of global change is essential for local and transboundary management aimed to prevent the spread of invasions. Using a spatial modelling approach adapted to invasive species, we identify range-shifts in suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful IATV in Europe, considering future climate and land-use changes. We predict range contractions for seven of these IATV, expansion for four, and inconclusive outputs for the rest. For most Europe, future aggregated distributions show stable or decreasing trends in total IATV richness. Still, specific regions will increase their suitability for additional IATVs, including some protected and last-of-the-wild areas. Our results are informative for early decision-making and long-term strategies to prevent negative effects of IATV. Our approach is based on publicly available data, so predictions can be revised as new data becomes available. |
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| AbstractList | Predicting suitable locations for invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) under different scenarios of global change is essential for local and transboundary management aimed to prevent the spread of invasions. Using a spatial modelling approach adapted to invasive species, we identify range-shifts in suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful IATV in Europe, considering future climate and land-use changes. We predict range contractions for seven of these IATV, expansion for four, and inconclusive outputs for the rest. For most Europe, future aggregated distributions show stable or decreasing trends in total IATV richness. Still, specific regions will increase their suitability for additional IATVs, including some protected and last-of-the-wild areas. Our results are informative for early decision-making and long-term strategies to prevent negative effects of IATV. Our approach is based on publicly available data, so predictions can be revised as new data becomes available. |
| Author | Pärt, Tomas Recio, Mariano R Soultan, Alaaeldin Polaina, Ester |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Ester orcidid: 0000-0002-5064-5881 surname: Polaina fullname: Polaina, Ester – sequence: 2 givenname: Alaaeldin orcidid: 0000-0002-3976-2657 surname: Soultan fullname: Soultan, Alaaeldin – sequence: 3 givenname: Tomas orcidid: 0000-0001-7388-6672 surname: Pärt fullname: Pärt, Tomas – sequence: 4 givenname: Mariano R surname: Recio fullname: Recio, Mariano R |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.06074.x 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00172.x 10.1111/gcb.13272 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01060.x 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00036.x 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00362.1 10.1111/aje.12694 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00547.x 10.1002/ecs2.1694 10.1098/rspb.2015.2454 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00768.x 10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010 10.1007/s10530-019-02087-6 10.1111/gcb.13798 10.1641/0006-3568(2002)052[0891:THFATL]2.0.CO;2 10.1071/WR07116 10.1038/s41598-020-68387-3 10.22120/jwb.2019.109875.1074 10.1038/nature22900 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01250.x 10.1111/gcb.12344 10.1007/s10530-016-1161-y 10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30194-9 10.1038/sdata.2017.122 10.1111/brv.12627 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x 10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2 10.1002/ece3.1031 |
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| SubjectTerms | alien species Climate change Climate prediction Decision making Ecology Ekologi Introduced species Invasive species invasive vertebrates Land use land-use change species distribution models Vertebrates |
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