Association between Firearm Laws and Homicide in Urban Counties

Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry (RTC) and stand your ground (SYG) laws are associated with increases in firearm homicide; permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws and those prohibiting ind...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of urban health Jg. 95; H. 3; S. 383 - 390
Hauptverfasser:	Crifasi, Cassandra K., Merrill-Francis, Molly, McCourt, Alex, Vernick, Jon S., Wintemute, Garen J., Webster, Daniel W.
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	New York Springer US 01.06.2018 Springer Nature B.V
Schlagworte:	Adolescent Adult Aggression Correlation analysis Counties Epidemiology Female Firearm laws & regulations Firearms Firearms - legislation & jurisprudence Firearms - statistics & numerical data Gun Violence - legislation & jurisprudence Gun Violence - statistics & numerical data Health Informatics Homicide Homicide - legislation & jurisprudence Homicide - statistics & numerical data Humans Longitudinal Studies Male Medicine Medicine & Public Health Murders & murder attempts Poisson density functions Public Health Regression analysis Regression models Small arms Statistical analysis Tests Time series United States Urban areas Urban Population - statistics & numerical data Violence Young Adult United States United States > US Firearm Homicide Gun policy
ISSN:	1099-3460, 1468-2869, 1468-2869
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Abstract	Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry (RTC) and stand your ground (SYG) laws are associated with increases in firearm homicide; permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws and those prohibiting individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors (VM) have been associated with decreases in firearm homicide. Evidence for the effect of comprehensive background checks (CBC) not tied to PTP is inconclusive. Because firearm homicide tends to concentrate in urban areas, this study was designed to test the effects of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties. We conducted a longitudinal study using an interrupted time series design to evaluate the effect of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties from 1984 to 2015 ( N = 136). We used mixed effects Poisson regression models with random intercepts for counties and year fixed effects to account for national trends. Models also included county and state characteristics associated with violence. Homicide was stratified by firearm versus all other methods to test for specificity of the laws’ effects. PTP laws were associated with a 14% reduction in firearm homicide in large, urban counties (IRR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82–0.90). CBC-only, SYG, RTC, and VM laws were all associated with increases in firearm homicide. None of the laws were associated with differences in non-firearm homicide rates. These findings are consistent with prior research at the state level showing PTP laws are associated with decreased firearm homicide. Testing the effects of PTP laws specifically in large, urban counties strengthens available evidence by isolating the effects in the geographic locations in which firearm homicides concentrate.
AbstractList	Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry (RTC) and stand your ground (SYG) laws are associated with increases in firearm homicide; permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws and those prohibiting individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors (VM) have been associated with decreases in firearm homicide. Evidence for the effect of comprehensive background checks (CBC) not tied to PTP is inconclusive. Because firearm homicide tends to concentrate in urban areas, this study was designed to test the effects of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties. We conducted a longitudinal study using an interrupted time series design to evaluate the effect of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties from 1984 to 2015 (N = 136). We used mixed effects Poisson regression models with random intercepts for counties and year fixed effects to account for national trends. Models also included county and state characteristics associated with violence. Homicide was stratified by firearm versus all other methods to test for specificity of the laws' effects. PTP laws were associated with a 14% reduction in firearm homicide in large, urban counties (IRR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). CBC-only, SYG, RTC, and VM laws were all associated with increases in firearm homicide. None of the laws were associated with differences in non-firearm homicide rates. These findings are consistent with prior research at the state level showing PTP laws are associated with decreased firearm homicide. Testing the effects of PTP laws specifically in large, urban counties strengthens available evidence by isolating the effects in the geographic locations in which firearm homicides concentrate. Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry (RTC) and stand your ground (SYG) laws are associated with increases in firearm homicide; permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws and those prohibiting individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors (VM) have been associated with decreases in firearm homicide. Evidence for the effect of comprehensive background checks (CBC) not tied to PTP is inconclusive. Because firearm homicide tends to concentrate in urban areas, this study was designed to test the effects of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties. We conducted a longitudinal study using an interrupted time series design to evaluate the effect of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties from 1984 to 2015 (N = 136). We used mixed effects Poisson regression models with random intercepts for counties and year fixed effects to account for national trends. Models also included county and state characteristics associated with violence. Homicide was stratified by firearm versus all other methods to test for specificity of the laws' effects. PTP laws were associated with a 14% reduction in firearm homicide in large, urban counties (IRR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). CBC-only, SYG, RTC, and VM laws were all associated with increases in firearm homicide. None of the laws were associated with differences in non-firearm homicide rates. These findings are consistent with prior research at the state level showing PTP laws are associated with decreased firearm homicide. Testing the effects of PTP laws specifically in large, urban counties strengthens available evidence by isolating the effects in the geographic locations in which firearm homicides concentrate.Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry (RTC) and stand your ground (SYG) laws are associated with increases in firearm homicide; permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws and those prohibiting individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors (VM) have been associated with decreases in firearm homicide. Evidence for the effect of comprehensive background checks (CBC) not tied to PTP is inconclusive. Because firearm homicide tends to concentrate in urban areas, this study was designed to test the effects of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties. We conducted a longitudinal study using an interrupted time series design to evaluate the effect of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties from 1984 to 2015 (N = 136). We used mixed effects Poisson regression models with random intercepts for counties and year fixed effects to account for national trends. Models also included county and state characteristics associated with violence. Homicide was stratified by firearm versus all other methods to test for specificity of the laws' effects. PTP laws were associated with a 14% reduction in firearm homicide in large, urban counties (IRR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.90). CBC-only, SYG, RTC, and VM laws were all associated with increases in firearm homicide. None of the laws were associated with differences in non-firearm homicide rates. These findings are consistent with prior research at the state level showing PTP laws are associated with decreased firearm homicide. Testing the effects of PTP laws specifically in large, urban counties strengthens available evidence by isolating the effects in the geographic locations in which firearm homicides concentrate. Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry (RTC) and stand your ground (SYG) laws are associated with increases in firearm homicide; permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws and those prohibiting individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors (VM) have been associated with decreases in firearm homicide. Evidence for the effect of comprehensive background checks (CBC) not tied to PTP is inconclusive. Because firearm homicide tends to concentrate in urban areas, this study was designed to test the effects of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties. We conducted a longitudinal study using an interrupted time series design to evaluate the effect of firearm laws on homicide in large, urban U.S. counties from 1984 to 2015 ( N = 136). We used mixed effects Poisson regression models with random intercepts for counties and year fixed effects to account for national trends. Models also included county and state characteristics associated with violence. Homicide was stratified by firearm versus all other methods to test for specificity of the laws’ effects. PTP laws were associated with a 14% reduction in firearm homicide in large, urban counties (IRR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82–0.90). CBC-only, SYG, RTC, and VM laws were all associated with increases in firearm homicide. None of the laws were associated with differences in non-firearm homicide rates. These findings are consistent with prior research at the state level showing PTP laws are associated with decreased firearm homicide. Testing the effects of PTP laws specifically in large, urban counties strengthens available evidence by isolating the effects in the geographic locations in which firearm homicides concentrate.
Author	Wintemute, Garen J. McCourt, Alex Crifasi, Cassandra K. Merrill-Francis, Molly Webster, Daniel W. Vernick, Jon S.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Cassandra K. surname: Crifasi fullname: Crifasi, Cassandra K. email: crifasi@jhu.edu organization: Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health – sequence: 2 givenname: Molly surname: Merrill-Francis fullname: Merrill-Francis, Molly organization: Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health – sequence: 3 givenname: Alex surname: McCourt fullname: McCourt, Alex organization: Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health – sequence: 4 givenname: Jon S. surname: Vernick fullname: Vernick, Jon S. organization: Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health – sequence: 5 givenname: Garen J. surname: Wintemute fullname: Wintemute, Garen J. organization: Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California Davis – sequence: 6 givenname: Daniel W. surname: Webster fullname: Webster, Daniel W. organization: Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29785569$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Copyright	The New York Academy of Medicine 2018 Journal of Urban Health is a copyright of Springer, (2018). All Rights Reserved.
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References	WintemuteGJWrightMADrakeCMBeaumontJJSubsequent criminal activity among violent misdemeanants who seek to purchase handguns: risk factors and effectiveness of denying handgun purchaseJAMA200128581019102610.1001/jama.285.8.1019112091721:STN:280:DC%2BD3M7otlejtg%3D%3D Census United States Census Bureau Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Commerce; [Available from: https://www.census.gov/# accessed November 10 2013. Webster D, Vernick J, McGinty E, et al. Preventing the diversion of guns to criminals through effective firearm sales laws. In: Webster D, Vernick J, editors. Reducing gun violence in America: informing policy with evidence and analysis. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press; 2013. CDC WISQARS - Fatal Injury Reports, National and Regional, 2016: National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 2017 [Available from:https://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate.html. MillerMHepburnLAzraelDFirearm acquisition without background checks: results of a national survey firearm acquisition without background checksAnn Intern Med2017166423323910.7326/M16-159028055050 WebsterDCrifasiCKVernickJEffects of the repeal of Missouri’s handgun purchaser licensing law on homicidesJ Urban Health20149111010.1007/s11524-013-9812-0 ChengCHoekstraMDoes strengthening self-defense law deter crime or escalate violence? Evidence from expansions to castle doctrineJ Hum Resour2013483821854 CDC WONDER: Compressed Mortality, 2016 [Available from: https://wonder.cdc.gov/mortSQL.html2018. AndrésARHempsteadKGun control and suicide: the impact of state firearm regulations in the United States, 1995–2004Health Policy201110119510310.1016/j.healthpol.2010.10.005 Stata Statistical Software: Release 14 [program]. College Station, TX: StataCorp LP, 2015. BJS Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics: University at Albany; [Available from: http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/ accessed November 1 2012. BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Labor; [Available from: http://www.bls.gov/lau/ accessed November 7 2012. Zeoli AM, McCourt A, Buggs S, Frattaroli S, Lilley D, Webster DW. Analysis of the strength of legal firearms restrictions for perpetrators of domestic violence and their association with intimate partner homicide. Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Castillo-Carniglia A, Kagawa RMC, Webster DW, Vernick JS, Cerdá M, Wintemute GJ Comprehensive background check policy and firearm background checks in three US states. Injury Prevention 2017, injuryprev-2017-042475 HumphreysDKGasparriniAWiebeDJEvaluating the impact of Florida’s “stand your ground” self-defense law on homicide and suicide by firearm: an interrupted time series studyJAMA Intern Med20171771445010.1001/jamainternmed.2016.681127842169 RudolphKEStuartEAVernickJSAssociation between Connecticut’s permit-to-purchase handgun law and homicidesAm J Public Health20151058e49e5410.2105/AJPH.2015.302703260669594504296 Crifasi CK, Merrill-Francis M, Webster DW, Wintemute GJ, Vernick JS Changes in the legal environment and enforcement of firearm transfer laws in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Injury Prevention 2018:injuryprev-2017-042582. Census State & Local Government Finances Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Commerce; [Available from: http://www.census.gov/govs/estimate/. Vittes KA, Vernick JS, Webster DW. Legal status and source of offenders’ firearms in states with the least stringent criteria for gun ownership. Injury Prevention 2012;epub doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040290 ATF Crime Gun Trace Reports: The youth crime gun interdiction initiative. In: Firearms BoAT, ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Treasury, 2002. Donohue JJ, Aneja A, Weber KD. Right-to-carry laws and violent crime: a comprehensive assessment using panel data and a state-level synthetic controls analysis: National Bureau of Economic Research. Stanford, CA: Stanford University; 2017. SEARCH. Improving the National Instant Background Screening System for firearms purchases: recommendations by SEARCH. Version 2 ed: The National Consortium for Justice Information and Statistics, 2013. CDC. Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) [Available from: https://wonder.cdc.gov/2018. DK Humphreys (273_CR13) 2017; 177 D Webster (273_CR7) 2014; 91 273_CR21 273_CR20 273_CR23 273_CR11 273_CR22 273_CR9 273_CR18 273_CR17 273_CR16 KE Rudolph (273_CR8) 2015; 105 AR Andrés (273_CR10) 2011; 101 273_CR15 273_CR5 273_CR4 273_CR6 273_CR19 273_CR1 GJ Wintemute (273_CR14) 2001; 285 273_CR2 M Miller (273_CR3) 2017; 166 C Cheng (273_CR12) 2013; 48 30138185 - Am J Nurs. 2018 Sep;118(9):13 30117057 - J Urban Health. 2018 Oct;95(5):773-776
References_xml	– reference: CDC WONDER: Compressed Mortality, 2016 [Available from: https://wonder.cdc.gov/mortSQL.html2018. – reference: Vittes KA, Vernick JS, Webster DW. Legal status and source of offenders’ firearms in states with the least stringent criteria for gun ownership. Injury Prevention 2012;epub doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040290 – reference: Webster D, Vernick J, McGinty E, et al. Preventing the diversion of guns to criminals through effective firearm sales laws. In: Webster D, Vernick J, editors. Reducing gun violence in America: informing policy with evidence and analysis. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press; 2013. – reference: Census United States Census Bureau Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Commerce; [Available from: https://www.census.gov/# accessed November 10 2013. – reference: Donohue JJ, Aneja A, Weber KD. Right-to-carry laws and violent crime: a comprehensive assessment using panel data and a state-level synthetic controls analysis: National Bureau of Economic Research. Stanford, CA: Stanford University; 2017. – reference: WintemuteGJWrightMADrakeCMBeaumontJJSubsequent criminal activity among violent misdemeanants who seek to purchase handguns: risk factors and effectiveness of denying handgun purchaseJAMA200128581019102610.1001/jama.285.8.1019112091721:STN:280:DC%2BD3M7otlejtg%3D%3D – reference: BJS Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics: University at Albany; [Available from: http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/ accessed November 1 2012. – reference: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Labor; [Available from: http://www.bls.gov/lau/ accessed November 7 2012. – reference: Stata Statistical Software: Release 14 [program]. College Station, TX: StataCorp LP, 2015. – reference: CDC. Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) [Available from: https://wonder.cdc.gov/2018. – reference: Crifasi CK, Merrill-Francis M, Webster DW, Wintemute GJ, Vernick JS Changes in the legal environment and enforcement of firearm transfer laws in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Injury Prevention 2018:injuryprev-2017-042582. – reference: MillerMHepburnLAzraelDFirearm acquisition without background checks: results of a national survey firearm acquisition without background checksAnn Intern Med2017166423323910.7326/M16-159028055050 – reference: AndrésARHempsteadKGun control and suicide: the impact of state firearm regulations in the United States, 1995–2004Health Policy201110119510310.1016/j.healthpol.2010.10.005 – reference: Zeoli AM, McCourt A, Buggs S, Frattaroli S, Lilley D, Webster DW. Analysis of the strength of legal firearms restrictions for perpetrators of domestic violence and their association with intimate partner homicide. Am J Epidemiol. 2017; – reference: WebsterDCrifasiCKVernickJEffects of the repeal of Missouri’s handgun purchaser licensing law on homicidesJ Urban Health20149111010.1007/s11524-013-9812-0 – reference: SEARCH. Improving the National Instant Background Screening System for firearms purchases: recommendations by SEARCH. Version 2 ed: The National Consortium for Justice Information and Statistics, 2013. – reference: CDC WISQARS - Fatal Injury Reports, National and Regional, 2016: National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 2017 [Available from:https://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate.html. – reference: RudolphKEStuartEAVernickJSAssociation between Connecticut’s permit-to-purchase handgun law and homicidesAm J Public Health20151058e49e5410.2105/AJPH.2015.302703260669594504296 – reference: HumphreysDKGasparriniAWiebeDJEvaluating the impact of Florida’s “stand your ground” self-defense law on homicide and suicide by firearm: an interrupted time series studyJAMA Intern Med20171771445010.1001/jamainternmed.2016.681127842169 – reference: ChengCHoekstraMDoes strengthening self-defense law deter crime or escalate violence? Evidence from expansions to castle doctrineJ Hum Resour2013483821854 – reference: Census State & Local Government Finances Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Commerce; [Available from: http://www.census.gov/govs/estimate/. – reference: ATF Crime Gun Trace Reports: The youth crime gun interdiction initiative. In: Firearms BoAT, ed. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Treasury, 2002. – reference: Castillo-Carniglia A, Kagawa RMC, Webster DW, Vernick JS, Cerdá M, Wintemute GJ Comprehensive background check policy and firearm background checks in three US states. Injury Prevention 2017, injuryprev-2017-042475 – ident: 273_CR16 – volume: 177 start-page: 44 issue: 1 year: 2017 ident: 273_CR13 publication-title: JAMA Intern Med doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.6811 – volume: 91 start-page: 1 year: 2014 ident: 273_CR7 publication-title: J Urban Health doi: 10.1007/s11524-013-9812-0 – ident: 273_CR11 doi: 10.3386/w23510 – ident: 273_CR1 – volume: 105 start-page: e49 issue: 8 year: 2015 ident: 273_CR8 publication-title: Am J Public Health doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2015.302703 – ident: 273_CR9 – ident: 273_CR5 – ident: 273_CR17 – ident: 273_CR2 – ident: 273_CR18 – ident: 273_CR19 – ident: 273_CR4 doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040290 – volume: 101 start-page: 95 issue: 1 year: 2011 ident: 273_CR10 publication-title: Health Policy doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2010.10.005 – volume: 285 start-page: 1019 issue: 8 year: 2001 ident: 273_CR14 publication-title: JAMA doi: 10.1001/jama.285.8.1019 – ident: 273_CR6 doi: 10.21428/cb6ab371.205986a6 – ident: 273_CR15 doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx362 – ident: 273_CR23 doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042582 – volume: 166 start-page: 233 issue: 4 year: 2017 ident: 273_CR3 publication-title: Ann Intern Med doi: 10.7326/M16-1590 – ident: 273_CR21 – ident: 273_CR22 doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042475 – ident: 273_CR20 – volume: 48 start-page: 821 issue: 3 year: 2013 ident: 273_CR12 publication-title: J Hum Resour – reference: 30138185 - Am J Nurs. 2018 Sep;118(9):13 – reference: 30117057 - J Urban Health. 2018 Oct;95(5):773-776
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Snippet	Laws related to the sale, use, and carrying of firearms have been associated with differences in firearm homicide rates at the state level. Right-to-carry...
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SubjectTerms	Adolescent Adult Aggression Correlation analysis Counties Epidemiology Female Firearm laws & regulations Firearms Firearms - legislation & jurisprudence Firearms - statistics & numerical data Gun Violence - legislation & jurisprudence Gun Violence - statistics & numerical data Health Informatics Homicide Homicide - legislation & jurisprudence Homicide - statistics & numerical data Humans Longitudinal Studies Male Medicine Medicine & Public Health Murders & murder attempts Poisson density functions Public Health Regression analysis Regression models Small arms Statistical analysis Tests Time series United States Urban areas Urban Population - statistics & numerical data Violence Young Adult
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Title	Association between Firearm Laws and Homicide in Urban Counties
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