A stacking ensemble model for predicting the occurrence of carotid atherosclerosis

Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking ensemble machine learning techniques to enhance the prediction of CAS occurrence, incorporating a wide range of predictors, including endocrine-related mark...

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Vydáno v:Frontiers in endocrinology (Lausanne) Ročník 15; s. 1390352
Hlavní autoři: Zhang, Xiaoshuai, Tang, Chuanping, Wang, Shuohuan, Liu, Wei, Yang, Wangxuan, Wang, Di, Wang, Qinghuan, Tang, Fang
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Switzerland Frontiers Media S.A 23.07.2024
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ISSN:1664-2392, 1664-2392
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Abstract Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking ensemble machine learning techniques to enhance the prediction of CAS occurrence, incorporating a wide range of predictors, including endocrine-related markers. Based on data from a routine health check-up cohort, five individual prediction models for CAS were established based on logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) methods. Then, a stacking ensemble algorithm was used to integrate the base models to improve the prediction ability and address overfitting problems. Finally, the SHAP value method was applied for an in-depth analysis of variable importance at both the overall and individual levels, with a focus on elucidating the impact of endocrine-related variables. A total of 441 of the 1669 subjects in the cohort were finally diagnosed with CAS. Seventeen variables were selected as predictors. The ensemble model outperformed the individual models, with AUCs of 0.893 in the testing set and 0.861 in the validation set. The ensemble model has the optimal accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score in the validation set, with considerable performance in the testing set. Carotid stenosis and age emerged as the most significant predictors, alongside notable contributions from endocrine-related factors. The ensemble model shows enhanced accuracy and generalizability in predicting CAS risk, underscoring its utility in identifying individuals at high risk. This approach integrates a comprehensive analysis of predictors, including endocrine markers, affirming the critical role of endocrine dysfunctions in CAS development. It represents a promising tool in identifying high-risk individuals for the prevention of CAS and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.
AbstractList BackgroundCarotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking ensemble machine learning techniques to enhance the prediction of CAS occurrence, incorporating a wide range of predictors, including endocrine-related markers.MethodsBased on data from a routine health check-up cohort, five individual prediction models for CAS were established based on logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) methods. Then, a stacking ensemble algorithm was used to integrate the base models to improve the prediction ability and address overfitting problems. Finally, the SHAP value method was applied for an in-depth analysis of variable importance at both the overall and individual levels, with a focus on elucidating the impact of endocrine-related variables.ResultsA total of 441 of the 1669 subjects in the cohort were finally diagnosed with CAS. Seventeen variables were selected as predictors. The ensemble model outperformed the individual models, with AUCs of 0.893 in the testing set and 0.861 in the validation set. The ensemble model has the optimal accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score in the validation set, with considerable performance in the testing set. Carotid stenosis and age emerged as the most significant predictors, alongside notable contributions from endocrine-related factors.ConclusionThe ensemble model shows enhanced accuracy and generalizability in predicting CAS risk, underscoring its utility in identifying individuals at high risk. This approach integrates a comprehensive analysis of predictors, including endocrine markers, affirming the critical role of endocrine dysfunctions in CAS development. It represents a promising tool in identifying high-risk individuals for the prevention of CAS and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.
Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking ensemble machine learning techniques to enhance the prediction of CAS occurrence, incorporating a wide range of predictors, including endocrine-related markers. Based on data from a routine health check-up cohort, five individual prediction models for CAS were established based on logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) methods. Then, a stacking ensemble algorithm was used to integrate the base models to improve the prediction ability and address overfitting problems. Finally, the SHAP value method was applied for an in-depth analysis of variable importance at both the overall and individual levels, with a focus on elucidating the impact of endocrine-related variables. A total of 441 of the 1669 subjects in the cohort were finally diagnosed with CAS. Seventeen variables were selected as predictors. The ensemble model outperformed the individual models, with AUCs of 0.893 in the testing set and 0.861 in the validation set. The ensemble model has the optimal accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score in the validation set, with considerable performance in the testing set. Carotid stenosis and age emerged as the most significant predictors, alongside notable contributions from endocrine-related factors. The ensemble model shows enhanced accuracy and generalizability in predicting CAS risk, underscoring its utility in identifying individuals at high risk. This approach integrates a comprehensive analysis of predictors, including endocrine markers, affirming the critical role of endocrine dysfunctions in CAS development. It represents a promising tool in identifying high-risk individuals for the prevention of CAS and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.
Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking ensemble machine learning techniques to enhance the prediction of CAS occurrence, incorporating a wide range of predictors, including endocrine-related markers.BackgroundCarotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking ensemble machine learning techniques to enhance the prediction of CAS occurrence, incorporating a wide range of predictors, including endocrine-related markers.Based on data from a routine health check-up cohort, five individual prediction models for CAS were established based on logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) methods. Then, a stacking ensemble algorithm was used to integrate the base models to improve the prediction ability and address overfitting problems. Finally, the SHAP value method was applied for an in-depth analysis of variable importance at both the overall and individual levels, with a focus on elucidating the impact of endocrine-related variables.MethodsBased on data from a routine health check-up cohort, five individual prediction models for CAS were established based on logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) methods. Then, a stacking ensemble algorithm was used to integrate the base models to improve the prediction ability and address overfitting problems. Finally, the SHAP value method was applied for an in-depth analysis of variable importance at both the overall and individual levels, with a focus on elucidating the impact of endocrine-related variables.A total of 441 of the 1669 subjects in the cohort were finally diagnosed with CAS. Seventeen variables were selected as predictors. The ensemble model outperformed the individual models, with AUCs of 0.893 in the testing set and 0.861 in the validation set. The ensemble model has the optimal accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score in the validation set, with considerable performance in the testing set. Carotid stenosis and age emerged as the most significant predictors, alongside notable contributions from endocrine-related factors.ResultsA total of 441 of the 1669 subjects in the cohort were finally diagnosed with CAS. Seventeen variables were selected as predictors. The ensemble model outperformed the individual models, with AUCs of 0.893 in the testing set and 0.861 in the validation set. The ensemble model has the optimal accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score in the validation set, with considerable performance in the testing set. Carotid stenosis and age emerged as the most significant predictors, alongside notable contributions from endocrine-related factors.The ensemble model shows enhanced accuracy and generalizability in predicting CAS risk, underscoring its utility in identifying individuals at high risk. This approach integrates a comprehensive analysis of predictors, including endocrine markers, affirming the critical role of endocrine dysfunctions in CAS development. It represents a promising tool in identifying high-risk individuals for the prevention of CAS and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.ConclusionThe ensemble model shows enhanced accuracy and generalizability in predicting CAS risk, underscoring its utility in identifying individuals at high risk. This approach integrates a comprehensive analysis of predictors, including endocrine markers, affirming the critical role of endocrine dysfunctions in CAS development. It represents a promising tool in identifying high-risk individuals for the prevention of CAS and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.
Author Yang, Wangxuan
Tang, Chuanping
Liu, Wei
Wang, Qinghuan
Wang, Shuohuan
Wang, Di
Zhang, Xiaoshuai
Tang, Fang
AuthorAffiliation 1 Department of Data Science, School of Statistics and Mathematics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics , Jinan , China
3 Department of Medical Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong Engineering Research Center of Diagnosis and Treatment Technology for Bariatric and Metabolism-Associated Surgery , Jinan , China
6 Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University , Jinan , China
5 Center for Big Data Research in Health and Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital Shandong Data Open Innovative Application Laboratory , Jinan , China
4 School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University , Harbin , China
2 Information Technology Division, Shandong International Trust Co., Ltd. , Jinan , China
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 4 School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University , Harbin , China
– name: 1 Department of Data Science, School of Statistics and Mathematics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics , Jinan , China
– name: 6 Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University , Jinan , China
– name: 2 Information Technology Division, Shandong International Trust Co., Ltd. , Jinan , China
– name: 5 Center for Big Data Research in Health and Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital Shandong Data Open Innovative Application Laboratory , Jinan , China
– name: 3 Department of Medical Ultrasound, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong Engineering Research Center of Diagnosis and Treatment Technology for Bariatric and Metabolism-Associated Surgery , Jinan , China
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Keywords carotid atherosclerosis
prediction
endocrine-related markers
machine learning
stacking
Language English
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Snippet Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking ensemble...
BackgroundCarotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a significant risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular events. The objective of this study is to employ stacking...
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SubjectTerms Aged
Algorithms
Carotid Artery Diseases - epidemiology
carotid atherosclerosis
Cohort Studies
endocrine-related markers
Endocrinology
Female
Humans
Machine Learning
Male
Middle Aged
prediction
Prognosis
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk Factors
stacking
Support Vector Machine
Title A stacking ensemble model for predicting the occurrence of carotid atherosclerosis
URI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39109079
https://www.proquest.com/docview/3089881057
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC11300245
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