Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Landscape ecology Vol. 21; no. 1; pp. 121 - 137
Main Authors: Cary, Geoffrey J., Keane, Robert E., Gardner, Robert H., Lavorel, Sandra, Flannigan, Mike D., Davies, Ian D., Li, Chao, Lenihan, James M., Rupp, T. Scott, Mouillot, Florent
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Dordrecht Springer 01.01.2006
Springer Nature B.V
Springer Verlag
Subjects:
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Applied ecology
Biodiversity
Biodiversity and Ecology
Biological and medical sciences
Climate
Complexity
Ecology, environment
Environmental factors
Environmental Sciences
Forest and land fires
Fuels
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General aspects
Landscape
Life Sciences
linear models
Modelling
Phytopathology. Animal pests. Plant and forest protection
Sensitivity
Terrain
variance
Variation
Weather
Weather damages. Fires
Scanning electron microscopy
Climate
Landscape
EMBYR
FIRESCAPE
Model comparison
Modeling
LANDSUM
SEM-LAND
Weather
LAMOS
Simulation modelling
Fire
Models
ISSN:0921-2973, 1572-9761
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter, and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four factors because they explicitly simulate the processes that link these factors to area burned.
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ISSN:0921-2973
1572-9761
DOI:10.1007/s10980-005-7302-9