Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in th...

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Veröffentlicht in:Land (Basel) Jg. 10; H. 1; S. 82
Hauptverfasser: Bhatt, Uma S., Lader, Rick T., Walsh, John E., Bieniek, Peter A., Thoman, Richard, Berman, Matthew, Borries-Strigle, Cecilia, Bulock, Kristi, Chriest, Jonathan, Hahn, Micah, Hendricks, Amy S., Jandt, Randi, Little, Joseph, McEvoy, Daniel, Moore, Chris, Rupp, T. Scott, Schmidt, Jennifer, Stevens, Eric, Strader, Heidi, Waigl, Christine, White, James, York, Alison, Ziel, Robert
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Basel MDPI AG 01.01.2021
Schlagworte:
Air quality
Air temperature
Alaska
Anthropogenic factors
boreal forest
Buildup Index
Climate change
Climate models
Costs
Drought
Electricity distribution
Environmental risk
Evacuations & rescues
Fire fighting
fire season
Forest & brush fires
Human influences
land
Lenses
Outdoor air quality
PM2.5
Precipitation
Public health
risk
Seasons
Simulation analysis
simulation models
Summer
Temperature
Tourism
Trends
Weather
Wildfires
wildland fire
Wind
Alaska
Kenai Peninsula
Cook Inlet
United States > US
Susitna Valley
ISSN:2073-445X, 2073-445X
Online-Zugang:Volltext
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Abstract The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.
AbstractList The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.
Author Ziel, Robert
Lader, Rick T.
Bulock, Kristi
Schmidt, Jennifer
Borries-Strigle, Cecilia
Stevens, Eric
Walsh, John E.
McEvoy, Daniel
Strader, Heidi
Bieniek, Peter A.
Chriest, Jonathan
White, James
Berman, Matthew
Hahn, Micah
Moore, Chris
Rupp, T. Scott
Hendricks, Amy S.
York, Alison
Bhatt, Uma S.
Jandt, Randi
Little, Joseph
Thoman, Richard
Waigl, Christine
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Snippet The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a...
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StartPage 82
SubjectTerms Air quality
Air temperature
Alaska
Anthropogenic factors
boreal forest
Buildup Index
Climate change
Climate models
Costs
Drought
Electricity distribution
Environmental risk
Evacuations & rescues
Fire fighting
fire season
Forest & brush fires
Human influences
land
Lenses
Outdoor air quality
PM2.5
Precipitation
Public health
risk
Seasons
Simulation analysis
simulation models
Summer
Temperature
Tourism
Trends
Weather
Wildfires
wildland fire
Wind
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Title Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019
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Volume 10
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