Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substanti...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature food Vol. 2; no. 11; p. 873
Main Authors: Jägermeyr, Jonas, Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alex C, Elliott, Joshua, Balkovic, Juraj, Castillo, Oscar, Faye, Babacar, Foster, Ian, Folberth, Christian, Franke, James A, Fuchs, Kathrin, Guarin, Jose R, Heinke, Jens, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Iizumi, Toshichika, Jain, Atul K, Kelly, David, Khabarov, Nikolay, Lange, Stefan, Lin, Tzu-Shun, Liu, Wenfeng, Mialyk, Oleksandr, Minoli, Sara, Moyer, Elisabeth J, Okada, Masashi, Phillips, Meridel, Porter, Cheryl, Rabin, Sam S, Scheer, Clemens, Schneider, Julia M, Schyns, Joep F, Skalsky, Rastislav, Smerald, Andrew, Stella, Tommaso, Stephens, Haynes, Webber, Heidi, Zabel, Florian, Rosenzweig, Cynthia
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: England 01.11.2021
ISSN:2662-1355, 2662-1355
Online Access:Get more information
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:2662-1355
2662-1355
DOI:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y