Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substanti...
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| Published in: | Nature food Vol. 2; no. 11; p. 873 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
England
01.11.2021
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| ISSN: | 2662-1355, 2662-1355 |
| Online Access: | Get more information |
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| Abstract | Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO
concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated. |
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| AbstractList | Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated. Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated. |
| Author | Porter, Cheryl Müller, Christoph Schyns, Joep F Okada, Masashi Schneider, Julia M Rosenzweig, Cynthia Franke, James A Moyer, Elisabeth J Mialyk, Oleksandr Ruane, Alex C Iizumi, Toshichika Jain, Atul K Rabin, Sam S Liu, Wenfeng Jägermeyr, Jonas Heinke, Jens Stella, Tommaso Zabel, Florian Stephens, Haynes Balkovic, Juraj Castillo, Oscar Skalsky, Rastislav Hoogenboom, Gerrit Webber, Heidi Guarin, Jose R Minoli, Sara Faye, Babacar Kelly, David Lin, Tzu-Shun Foster, Ian Scheer, Clemens Fuchs, Kathrin Lange, Stefan Folberth, Christian Smerald, Andrew Khabarov, Nikolay Elliott, Joshua Phillips, Meridel |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Jonas orcidid: 0000-0002-8368-0018 surname: Jägermeyr fullname: Jägermeyr, Jonas email: jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu, jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu, jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu – sequence: 2 givenname: Christoph orcidid: 0000-0002-9491-3550 surname: Müller fullname: Müller, Christoph organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Alex C orcidid: 0000-0002-5582-9217 surname: Ruane fullname: Ruane, Alex C organization: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Joshua surname: Elliott fullname: Elliott, Joshua organization: Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Juraj surname: Balkovic fullname: Balkovic, Juraj organization: Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic – sequence: 6 givenname: Oscar surname: Castillo fullname: Castillo, Oscar organization: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: Babacar surname: Faye fullname: Faye, Babacar organization: Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) ESPACE-DEV, Montpellier, France – sequence: 8 givenname: Ian orcidid: 0000-0003-2129-5269 surname: Foster fullname: Foster, Ian organization: Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 9 givenname: Christian orcidid: 0000-0002-6738-5238 surname: Folberth fullname: Folberth, Christian organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 10 givenname: James A surname: Franke fullname: Franke, James A organization: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 11 givenname: Kathrin orcidid: 0000-0003-1776-283X surname: Fuchs fullname: Fuchs, Kathrin organization: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany – sequence: 12 givenname: Jose R orcidid: 0000-0002-3167-4329 surname: Guarin fullname: Guarin, Jose R organization: Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, USA – sequence: 13 givenname: Jens surname: Heinke fullname: Heinke, Jens organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 14 givenname: Gerrit orcidid: 0000-0002-1555-0537 surname: Hoogenboom fullname: Hoogenboom, Gerrit organization: Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA – sequence: 15 givenname: Toshichika orcidid: 0000-0002-0611-4637 surname: Iizumi fullname: Iizumi, Toshichika organization: Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan – sequence: 16 givenname: Atul K orcidid: 0000-0002-4051-3228 surname: Jain fullname: Jain, Atul K organization: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA – sequence: 17 givenname: David surname: Kelly fullname: Kelly, David organization: Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 18 givenname: Nikolay orcidid: 0000-0001-5372-4668 surname: Khabarov fullname: Khabarov, Nikolay organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 19 givenname: Stefan orcidid: 0000-0003-2102-8873 surname: Lange fullname: Lange, Stefan organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 20 givenname: Tzu-Shun orcidid: 0000-0002-5741-8585 surname: Lin fullname: Lin, Tzu-Shun organization: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA – sequence: 21 givenname: Wenfeng surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Wenfeng organization: Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China – sequence: 22 givenname: Oleksandr orcidid: 0000-0002-7495-2325 surname: Mialyk fullname: Mialyk, Oleksandr organization: Multidisciplinary Water Management group, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands – sequence: 23 givenname: Sara surname: Minoli fullname: Minoli, Sara organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 24 givenname: Elisabeth J orcidid: 0000-0003-1829-5196 surname: Moyer fullname: Moyer, Elisabeth J organization: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 25 givenname: Masashi surname: Okada fullname: Okada, Masashi organization: Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan – sequence: 26 givenname: Meridel surname: Phillips fullname: Phillips, Meridel organization: Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, USA – sequence: 27 givenname: Cheryl orcidid: 0000-0001-7269-6543 surname: Porter fullname: Porter, Cheryl organization: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA – sequence: 28 givenname: Sam S surname: Rabin fullname: Rabin, Sam S organization: Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA – sequence: 29 givenname: Clemens surname: Scheer fullname: Scheer, Clemens organization: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany – sequence: 30 givenname: Julia M orcidid: 0000-0001-9588-3157 surname: Schneider fullname: Schneider, Julia M organization: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany – sequence: 31 givenname: Joep F orcidid: 0000-0001-5058-353X surname: Schyns fullname: Schyns, Joep F organization: Multidisciplinary Water Management group, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands – sequence: 32 givenname: Rastislav orcidid: 0000-0002-0983-6897 surname: Skalsky fullname: Skalsky, Rastislav organization: Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, National Agricultural and Food Centre, Bratislava, Slovak Republic – sequence: 33 givenname: Andrew orcidid: 0000-0003-2026-273X surname: Smerald fullname: Smerald, Andrew organization: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany – sequence: 34 givenname: Tommaso orcidid: 0000-0002-3018-6585 surname: Stella fullname: Stella, Tommaso organization: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany – sequence: 35 givenname: Haynes orcidid: 0000-0002-2258-5244 surname: Stephens fullname: Stephens, Haynes organization: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 36 givenname: Heidi orcidid: 0000-0001-8301-5424 surname: Webber fullname: Webber, Heidi organization: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany – sequence: 37 givenname: Florian orcidid: 0000-0002-2923-4412 surname: Zabel fullname: Zabel, Florian organization: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany – sequence: 38 givenname: Cynthia orcidid: 0000-0002-8541-2201 surname: Rosenzweig fullname: Rosenzweig, Cynthia organization: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37117503$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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