Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substanti...
Uložené v:
| Vydané v: | Nature food Ročník 2; číslo 11; s. 873 |
|---|---|
| Hlavní autori: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Vydavateľské údaje: |
England
01.11.2021
|
| ISSN: | 2662-1355, 2662-1355 |
| On-line prístup: | Zistit podrobnosti o prístupe |
| Tagy: |
Pridať tag
Žiadne tagy, Buďte prvý, kto otaguje tento záznam!
|
| Abstract | Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO
concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated. Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated. |
| Author | Porter, Cheryl Müller, Christoph Schyns, Joep F Okada, Masashi Schneider, Julia M Rosenzweig, Cynthia Franke, James A Moyer, Elisabeth J Mialyk, Oleksandr Ruane, Alex C Iizumi, Toshichika Jain, Atul K Rabin, Sam S Liu, Wenfeng Jägermeyr, Jonas Heinke, Jens Stella, Tommaso Zabel, Florian Stephens, Haynes Balkovic, Juraj Castillo, Oscar Skalsky, Rastislav Hoogenboom, Gerrit Webber, Heidi Guarin, Jose R Minoli, Sara Faye, Babacar Kelly, David Lin, Tzu-Shun Foster, Ian Scheer, Clemens Fuchs, Kathrin Lange, Stefan Folberth, Christian Smerald, Andrew Khabarov, Nikolay Elliott, Joshua Phillips, Meridel |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Jonas orcidid: 0000-0002-8368-0018 surname: Jägermeyr fullname: Jägermeyr, Jonas email: jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu, jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu, jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. jonas.jaegermeyr@columbia.edu – sequence: 2 givenname: Christoph orcidid: 0000-0002-9491-3550 surname: Müller fullname: Müller, Christoph organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Alex C orcidid: 0000-0002-5582-9217 surname: Ruane fullname: Ruane, Alex C organization: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Joshua surname: Elliott fullname: Elliott, Joshua organization: Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy (RDCEP), University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Juraj surname: Balkovic fullname: Balkovic, Juraj organization: Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic – sequence: 6 givenname: Oscar surname: Castillo fullname: Castillo, Oscar organization: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: Babacar surname: Faye fullname: Faye, Babacar organization: Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) ESPACE-DEV, Montpellier, France – sequence: 8 givenname: Ian orcidid: 0000-0003-2129-5269 surname: Foster fullname: Foster, Ian organization: Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 9 givenname: Christian orcidid: 0000-0002-6738-5238 surname: Folberth fullname: Folberth, Christian organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 10 givenname: James A surname: Franke fullname: Franke, James A organization: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 11 givenname: Kathrin orcidid: 0000-0003-1776-283X surname: Fuchs fullname: Fuchs, Kathrin organization: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany – sequence: 12 givenname: Jose R orcidid: 0000-0002-3167-4329 surname: Guarin fullname: Guarin, Jose R organization: Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, USA – sequence: 13 givenname: Jens surname: Heinke fullname: Heinke, Jens organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 14 givenname: Gerrit orcidid: 0000-0002-1555-0537 surname: Hoogenboom fullname: Hoogenboom, Gerrit organization: Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA – sequence: 15 givenname: Toshichika orcidid: 0000-0002-0611-4637 surname: Iizumi fullname: Iizumi, Toshichika organization: Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan – sequence: 16 givenname: Atul K orcidid: 0000-0002-4051-3228 surname: Jain fullname: Jain, Atul K organization: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA – sequence: 17 givenname: David surname: Kelly fullname: Kelly, David organization: Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 18 givenname: Nikolay orcidid: 0000-0001-5372-4668 surname: Khabarov fullname: Khabarov, Nikolay organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 19 givenname: Stefan orcidid: 0000-0003-2102-8873 surname: Lange fullname: Lange, Stefan organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 20 givenname: Tzu-Shun orcidid: 0000-0002-5741-8585 surname: Lin fullname: Lin, Tzu-Shun organization: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA – sequence: 21 givenname: Wenfeng surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Wenfeng organization: Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China – sequence: 22 givenname: Oleksandr orcidid: 0000-0002-7495-2325 surname: Mialyk fullname: Mialyk, Oleksandr organization: Multidisciplinary Water Management group, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands – sequence: 23 givenname: Sara surname: Minoli fullname: Minoli, Sara organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 24 givenname: Elisabeth J orcidid: 0000-0003-1829-5196 surname: Moyer fullname: Moyer, Elisabeth J organization: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 25 givenname: Masashi surname: Okada fullname: Okada, Masashi organization: Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan – sequence: 26 givenname: Meridel surname: Phillips fullname: Phillips, Meridel organization: Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, USA – sequence: 27 givenname: Cheryl orcidid: 0000-0001-7269-6543 surname: Porter fullname: Porter, Cheryl organization: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA – sequence: 28 givenname: Sam S surname: Rabin fullname: Rabin, Sam S organization: Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA – sequence: 29 givenname: Clemens surname: Scheer fullname: Scheer, Clemens organization: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany – sequence: 30 givenname: Julia M orcidid: 0000-0001-9588-3157 surname: Schneider fullname: Schneider, Julia M organization: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany – sequence: 31 givenname: Joep F orcidid: 0000-0001-5058-353X surname: Schyns fullname: Schyns, Joep F organization: Multidisciplinary Water Management group, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands – sequence: 32 givenname: Rastislav orcidid: 0000-0002-0983-6897 surname: Skalsky fullname: Skalsky, Rastislav organization: Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, National Agricultural and Food Centre, Bratislava, Slovak Republic – sequence: 33 givenname: Andrew orcidid: 0000-0003-2026-273X surname: Smerald fullname: Smerald, Andrew organization: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany – sequence: 34 givenname: Tommaso orcidid: 0000-0002-3018-6585 surname: Stella fullname: Stella, Tommaso organization: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany – sequence: 35 givenname: Haynes orcidid: 0000-0002-2258-5244 surname: Stephens fullname: Stephens, Haynes organization: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA – sequence: 36 givenname: Heidi orcidid: 0000-0001-8301-5424 surname: Webber fullname: Webber, Heidi organization: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany – sequence: 37 givenname: Florian orcidid: 0000-0002-2923-4412 surname: Zabel fullname: Zabel, Florian organization: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany – sequence: 38 givenname: Cynthia orcidid: 0000-0002-8541-2201 surname: Rosenzweig fullname: Rosenzweig, Cynthia organization: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37117503$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
| BookMark | eNpNkE1LxDAYhIOsuOu6f8CD5Oilmjdpks1RFr9gwYueS5q-LZU0WZMW2X9vwRU8zRxmHoa5JIsQAxJyDewOmNje51IwUAXjUDBWMlYcz8iKK8ULEFIu_vkl2eT8yRjjEkAac0GWQgNoycSK2J3vBzsi7YeDdWOmMdDOx9p6arvUu8mPU0KKA6ZuFpt8j4n2gQb8ph0GTHbs505sqTuRbGioS_FAh9igz1fkvLU-4-aka_Lx9Pi-eyn2b8-vu4d94UrFx0IiaO60RFMroUqpbA1bKU2rXaNKVnO0hguDtdU1lCBBOF1qY6FpNfC25Wty-8s9pPg1YR6roc8OvbcB45QrvmXawEyGOXpzik71gE11SPPydKz-buE_d3FnjQ |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cie_2024_109965 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jrurstud_2024_103360 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fmre_2024_10_012 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2025_101346 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2023_169405 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40808_022_01625_x crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_00970_8 crossref_primary_10_1093_pnasnexus_pgac305 crossref_primary_10_3389_fsufs_2022_916003 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2025_109766 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10584_025_03929_0 crossref_primary_10_3390_agriculture15080826 crossref_primary_10_1002_ael2_20147 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agwat_2025_109335 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13593_023_00923_7 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2025_110524 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_022_00592_x crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2025_110522 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13593_023_00900_0 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41558_023_01902_2 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecolind_2024_112544 crossref_primary_10_1080_17565529_2025_2506754 crossref_primary_10_3390_telecom5040058 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cropro_2025_107338 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_futures_2025_103701 crossref_primary_10_1111_cobi_14346 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00704_023_04430_3 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2024_127212 crossref_primary_10_3390_rs15184615 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_adb86a crossref_primary_10_1109_ACCESS_2024_3502547 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2024_110232 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecolecon_2025_108771 crossref_primary_10_1088_2515_7620_ac97d2 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_025_00262_5 crossref_primary_10_1002_ppp3_10513 crossref_primary_10_1007_s42532_022_00120_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agwat_2025_109347 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jcomm_2023_100367 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2024_110354 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_29_863_2025 crossref_primary_10_3390_su141912421 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_024_01232_x crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0293551 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2024_175589 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_022_00600_0 crossref_primary_10_1139_cjps_2022_0233 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jclepro_2025_145954 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_025_99621_5 crossref_primary_10_1002_agg2_20453 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jia_2025_02_047 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_01125_5 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos15111299 crossref_primary_10_1111_pce_14898 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2024_104242 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_nexres_2025_100217 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_24536_4 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2023_127056 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2025_110425 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2024_110145 crossref_primary_10_1111_gcb_15868 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2022_108933 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2024_104140 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac5766 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2025_108410 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2024_176560 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_023_40899_2 crossref_primary_10_3390_agronomy12102435 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127538 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2025_101318 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_024_01014_w crossref_primary_10_1016_j_copbio_2024_103181 crossref_primary_10_1088_2976_601X_ad3085 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_01049_0 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11103_025_01566_w crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2023_103819 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_nexres_2025_100307 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127785 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijms242115670 crossref_primary_10_3390_su17051832 crossref_primary_10_1002_ppp3_10544 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00704_024_04878_x crossref_primary_10_1111_j_1936_704X_2024_3401_x crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2024_109563 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_26_3731_2022 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_025_14560_5 crossref_primary_10_1093_plphys_kiad183 crossref_primary_10_1111_joes_12673 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2024_127137 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2025_1564278 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127560 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2023_10_006 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_envexpbot_2022_105071 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_geosus_2024_07_007 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_023_00753_6 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2024_109695 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2023_130105 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agwat_2024_109283 crossref_primary_10_31285_AGRO_29_1758 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_29_2811_2025 crossref_primary_10_1007_s12571_024_01501_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ancene_2023_100381 crossref_primary_10_1038_s42003_023_05145_x crossref_primary_10_1142_S2010007825500071 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_024_74309_4 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2024_127295 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2025_104367 crossref_primary_10_1029_2022EF002879 crossref_primary_10_3178_jjshwr_38_1910 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2022_156157 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_spc_2023_02_003 crossref_primary_10_1088_2752_5295_ad53f7 crossref_primary_10_1108_JADEE_04_2024_0122 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_crsus_2024_100029 crossref_primary_10_5194_gmd_17_8181_2024 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_catena_2022_106225 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac8ca1 crossref_primary_10_3390_cli10120193 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13593_024_00988_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecoser_2024_101641 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2025_101351 crossref_primary_10_1126_science_adn3747 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2025_101233 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11274_025_04485_6 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_wace_2022_100503 crossref_primary_10_1057_s41599_024_04287_5 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021WR031156 crossref_primary_10_3103_S1068367423030151 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ancene_2023_100386 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2025_134051 crossref_primary_10_1126_sciadv_ady3575 crossref_primary_10_1029_2022EF003190 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0325779 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10745_023_00426_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_animal_2023_100835 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_023_00853_3 crossref_primary_10_1002_aisy_202300426 crossref_primary_10_1038_s42003_023_05290_3 crossref_primary_10_3354_cr01709 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_seh_2025_100159 crossref_primary_10_1142_S2010007823500197 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43017_024_00516_2 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2024_109887 crossref_primary_10_1088_2752_5295_acd6af crossref_primary_10_5194_esd_16_753_2025 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_indic_2025_100855 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2022_103586 crossref_primary_10_3390_su16229862 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac592e crossref_primary_10_1007_s42452_025_07565_2 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_mib_2022_102233 crossref_primary_10_1186_s13717_025_00594_0 crossref_primary_10_3389_fclim_2022_787582 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cpb_2025_100548 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0323379 crossref_primary_10_1002_cli2_70007 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_024_73741_w crossref_primary_10_1007_s11111_024_00446_7 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_025_08419_y crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2208376120 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12864_024_10403_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jenvman_2023_118532 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_00941_z crossref_primary_10_17221_206_2022_AGRICECON crossref_primary_10_3390_rs15082090 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41558_025_02268_3 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2022_108784 crossref_primary_10_1038_s42003_025_08227_0 crossref_primary_10_3390_w16243693 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11104_024_06626_6 crossref_primary_10_1093_nsr_nwae374 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_envpol_2022_120715 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_coesh_2025_100637 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127827 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_025_02280_7 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos14050824 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11119_024_10175_4 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pclm_0000263 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_022_30991_4 crossref_primary_10_1088_2515_7620_adac33 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_rsase_2024_101198 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2023_103770 crossref_primary_10_7717_peerj_19592 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_024_00952_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_srs_2025_100272 crossref_primary_10_3389_fenvs_2023_1027545 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_adf128 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00344_023_10965_6 crossref_primary_10_1111_gcb_16857 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad97d3 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_adda63 crossref_primary_10_3390_vetsci12010065 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2023_106932 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_dib_2025_111668 crossref_primary_10_3389_fsci_2024_1531043 crossref_primary_10_1111_nph_19154 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_023_36129_4 crossref_primary_10_3390_biom14091177 crossref_primary_10_3390_plants14162540 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0278532 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jafr_2025_102129 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_023_49245_4 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2023_103647 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecolmodel_2025_111224 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127728 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_molp_2023_09_001 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_025_01135_w crossref_primary_10_3390_su16156427 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10457_024_01117_0 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2024_1470653 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2025_1658566 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127721 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jcs_2025_104280 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12870_025_07061_0 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cosust_2022_101249 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_rsase_2023_101097 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41588_024_01761_3 crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2423669122 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109683 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109321 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_01016_9 crossref_primary_10_3390_su14063697 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tibtech_2022_12_002 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad40c2 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_heliyon_2024_e32565 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127739 crossref_primary_10_1002_jsfa_13801 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_plaphy_2025_110204 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac9244 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scienta_2023_112774 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2024_171198 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_025_01168_1 crossref_primary_10_3390_su15086766 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43017_022_00368_8 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127732 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_rser_2024_114934 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2025_127855 crossref_primary_10_3389_fnut_2023_1297214 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109695 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2022_108624 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_024_65140_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2025_110116 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_022_10277_x crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2025_1613432 crossref_primary_10_3389_fsufs_2023_1108492 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_024_01113_8 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41893_024_01375_x crossref_primary_10_3390_w14091488 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2023_103746 crossref_primary_10_1093_pnasnexus_pgae170 crossref_primary_10_3390_agronomy14102273 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jclepro_2023_139292 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jclepro_2025_145299 crossref_primary_10_1007_s13593_025_01020_7 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41893_025_01576_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jclepro_2025_146392 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109783 crossref_primary_10_3390_su151914582 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11104_025_07499_z crossref_primary_10_3390_ijms26073160 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109781 crossref_primary_10_1029_2022EF003106 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos14050858 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_compag_2024_108962 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_024_01008_8 crossref_primary_10_1093_insilicoplants_diad006 crossref_primary_10_1146_annurev_nutr_111324_111252 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_023_38906_7 crossref_primary_10_1111_gcb_17472 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_rspp_2025_100244 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2024_173872 crossref_primary_10_3390_agronomy12122927 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2025_1675657 crossref_primary_10_5194_gmd_18_1067_2025 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2025_1514416 crossref_primary_10_1093_insilicoplants_diad013 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_aced18 crossref_primary_10_1111_gcb_16132 crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph192417033 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jobe_2025_112257 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_01164_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2025_179790 crossref_primary_10_1080_00167428_2023_2280656 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ecoinf_2023_102103 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2024_06_012 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2025_179554 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2024_06_013 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2024_109703 crossref_primary_10_5194_bg_22_4823_2025 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2022_126482 crossref_primary_10_1111_nph_70224 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_resconrec_2025_108315 crossref_primary_10_1088_2634_4505_adc0bc crossref_primary_10_1088_2976_601X_ad5bec crossref_primary_10_1016_j_dib_2024_110455 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_26_71_2022 crossref_primary_10_5194_bg_21_1563_2024 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_soilbio_2024_109357 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_aca7d5 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41597_023_02587_0 crossref_primary_10_3390_agronomy13081964 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_022_00521_y crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109737 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_still_2025_106681 crossref_primary_10_3390_rs14102340 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_025_02724_0 crossref_primary_10_3389_fagro_2024_1482893 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0322463 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43017_023_00482_1 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0314722 crossref_primary_10_3390_agronomy14040733 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ejsobi_2024_103708 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_025_06370_6 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_geosus_2025_100321 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41597_023_02193_0 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tplants_2025_08_016 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109627 crossref_primary_10_1093_plcell_koac303 crossref_primary_10_1111_disa_12668 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2023_109620 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2022_109205 crossref_primary_10_1093_aob_mcaf092 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad7040 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad78e9 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10113_023_02131_1 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_adc9c9 crossref_primary_10_1093_tas_txaf043 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agwat_2023_108575 crossref_primary_10_3389_fenvs_2023_1282284 crossref_primary_10_1061_JWRMD5_WRENG_6098 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41558_023_01644_1 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2024_1518123 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00122_024_04637_6 crossref_primary_10_3390_rs14163912 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2022_952146 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_023_00891_x crossref_primary_10_3389_fclim_2024_1344868 crossref_primary_10_3390_rs14133069 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2025_179470 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10584_024_03718_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_foodpol_2022_102253 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2023_166711 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_024_00994_z crossref_primary_10_1002_hlca_202200136 crossref_primary_10_3390_w16040621 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agwat_2023_108663 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gfs_2022_100666 crossref_primary_10_1186_s12870_024_05410_z crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2024_175951 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41597_024_04313_w crossref_primary_10_1007_s43538_022_00073_6 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_acc543 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gloplacha_2023_104216 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gr_2023_10_004 crossref_primary_10_1111_nph_20084 crossref_primary_10_3390_rs16193657 crossref_primary_10_1002_adma_202402745 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00704_025_05668_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eiar_2025_108038 crossref_primary_10_3389_fpls_2022_1090970 crossref_primary_10_3390_crops5040042 crossref_primary_10_1002_ird_3041 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_resenv_2025_100204 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11027_025_10223_y crossref_primary_10_3390_agronomy15040878 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_26_923_2022 crossref_primary_10_1029_2024EF005064 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cliser_2025_100605 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11103_022_01291_8 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_024_47082_1 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00181_025_02734_z crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scib_2023_02_011 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac4291 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00284_025_04406_8 crossref_primary_10_1021_acsagscitech_5c00206 crossref_primary_10_1007_s41748_025_00621_2 crossref_primary_10_3390_su17104484 crossref_primary_10_3390_plants14071036 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_021_00407_5 crossref_primary_10_14814_phy2_15972 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_025_57607_x crossref_primary_10_3390_rs14061519 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_023_00770_5 crossref_primary_10_1186_s13007_025_01403_7 crossref_primary_10_1111_pbi_70187 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_envexpbot_2023_105414 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_025_60036_5 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_resenv_2024_100185 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2023_126917 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41597_024_03051_3 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_hpj_2024_11_008 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_wace_2024_100738 crossref_primary_10_1029_2023GL105817 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2024_131192 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00425_025_04746_6 crossref_primary_10_3724_j_issn_2097_4981_JECC_2024_0025 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_aca68b crossref_primary_10_1007_s12374_022_09370_5 crossref_primary_10_1088_2976_601X_adb03d crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fcr_2024_109661 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43017_023_00438_5 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_cropro_2025_107198 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_aca68d crossref_primary_10_1016_j_isci_2025_112859 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_025_96534_1 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_29_3119_2025 crossref_primary_10_1007_s42106_024_00310_6 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_024_58826_w crossref_primary_10_3390_genes16080941 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ade728 crossref_primary_10_1111_ajae_12505 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_29_4219_2025 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jia_2023_02_011 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43016_023_00882_y crossref_primary_10_1038_s43017_023_00491_0 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jclepro_2025_145570 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_smallrumres_2023_107114 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_geosus_2025_100334 crossref_primary_10_1007_s42729_023_01438_6 crossref_primary_10_1177_14782103251333825 crossref_primary_10_1002_jsfa_14427 crossref_primary_10_1186_s43170_024_00308_0 crossref_primary_10_3390_agronomy14071360 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos15040392 crossref_primary_10_1111_1758_5899_13210 crossref_primary_10_1111_risa_17639 crossref_primary_10_5194_essd_15_4295_2023 crossref_primary_10_26599_ECM_2024_9400005 crossref_primary_10_3390_su17104574 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agwat_2025_109818 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41893_024_01292_z crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2024_110282 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_resconrec_2022_106725 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2024_170305 crossref_primary_10_1111_pce_14592 crossref_primary_10_5194_gmd_18_5759_2025 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2024_110047 crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2316497121 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10584_024_03811_5 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2024_110168 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_oneear_2024_02_012 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2023_126984 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_024_54536_z crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jclepro_2025_145667 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agee_2022_108179 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac7408 crossref_primary_10_1088_2515_7620_ad9b75 crossref_primary_10_3390_land14081693 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jenvman_2022_116789 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021EF002420 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_acc95c crossref_primary_10_1016_j_compag_2024_109603 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_envexpbot_2024_105938 crossref_primary_10_1038_s44264_025_00053_5 crossref_primary_10_1079_ab_2025_0011 crossref_primary_10_1108_JES_12_2024_0829 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_stress_2024_100613 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11111_023_00431_6 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agrformet_2025_110583 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_agsy_2025_104401 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jplph_2022_153657 crossref_primary_10_1242_bio_059335 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41558_025_02337_7 crossref_primary_10_1186_s42055_023_00063_6 crossref_primary_10_1111_pbi_14340 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad90f4 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ada459 crossref_primary_10_3390_genes13030488 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos15040485 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_01078_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tplants_2025_05_002 crossref_primary_10_1139_cjps_2023_0192 crossref_primary_10_1080_19376812_2024_2359997 crossref_primary_10_1093_pnasnexus_pgad117 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_tplants_2024_10_011 crossref_primary_10_1007_s41651_024_00209_w crossref_primary_10_1016_j_eja_2022_126670 crossref_primary_10_1111_nph_19937 crossref_primary_10_1093_jambio_lxaf168 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| DBID | NPM 7X8 |
| DOI | 10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y |
| DatabaseName | PubMed MEDLINE - Academic |
| DatabaseTitle | PubMed MEDLINE - Academic |
| DatabaseTitleList | MEDLINE - Academic PubMed |
| Database_xml | – sequence: 1 dbid: NPM name: PubMed url: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=PubMed sourceTypes: Index Database – sequence: 2 dbid: 7X8 name: MEDLINE - Academic url: https://search.proquest.com/medline sourceTypes: Aggregation Database |
| DeliveryMethod | no_fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Diet & Clinical Nutrition |
| EISSN | 2662-1355 |
| ExternalDocumentID | 37117503 |
| Genre | Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Journal Article |
| GroupedDBID | 0R~ AAEEF AARCD AAYZH ABJNI ACBWK AFSHS AIBTJ ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS NPM ODYON RNT SNYQT SOJ 7X8 AEUYN AFANA AFFHD AGSTI ATHPR PHGZM PHGZT |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c462t-5e172c75e9b636456ab18559f7cd640b2ea9239eba7b141513c7479a1df712ff2 |
| IEDL.DBID | 7X8 |
| ISICitedReferencesCount | 588 |
| ISICitedReferencesURI | http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=000713538600001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| ISSN | 2662-1355 |
| IngestDate | Sun Nov 09 11:27:50 EST 2025 Wed Feb 19 02:25:01 EST 2025 |
| IsDoiOpenAccess | false |
| IsOpenAccess | true |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 11 |
| Language | English |
| License | 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| LinkModel | DirectLink |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c462t-5e172c75e9b636456ab18559f7cd640b2ea9239eba7b141513c7479a1df712ff2 |
| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9491-3550 0000-0003-1776-283X 0000-0002-5741-8585 0000-0002-7495-2325 0000-0002-1555-0537 0000-0002-0611-4637 0000-0001-5058-353X 0000-0003-2129-5269 0000-0002-3167-4329 0000-0002-8541-2201 0000-0002-4051-3228 0000-0001-8301-5424 0000-0002-2923-4412 0000-0003-1829-5196 0000-0001-9588-3157 0000-0002-8368-0018 0000-0001-5372-4668 0000-0002-3018-6585 0000-0003-2102-8873 0000-0002-0983-6897 0000-0002-2258-5244 0000-0002-6738-5238 0000-0002-5582-9217 0000-0001-7269-6543 0000-0003-2026-273X |
| OpenAccessLink | https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00400-y.pdf |
| PMID | 37117503 |
| PQID | 2807916451 |
| PQPubID | 23479 |
| ParticipantIDs | proquest_miscellaneous_2807916451 pubmed_primary_37117503 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2021-11-00 20211101 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2021-11-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 11 year: 2021 text: 2021-11-00 |
| PublicationDecade | 2020 |
| PublicationPlace | England |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: England |
| PublicationTitle | Nature food |
| PublicationTitleAlternate | Nat Food |
| PublicationYear | 2021 |
| SSID | ssj0002511599 |
| Score | 2.656223 |
| Snippet | Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and... |
| SourceID | proquest pubmed |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database Index Database |
| StartPage | 873 |
| Title | Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models |
| URI | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37117503 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2807916451 |
| Volume | 2 |
| WOSCitedRecordID | wos000713538600001&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D |
| hasFullText | |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| link | http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV3LSsQwFA3quHDj-zG-uIK4C9Om6Wslog4utMxCZXYlTVMZkHacjoJ_771pRleC4KaLQpOSnOSePO45jJ0rj4w2TMojL_W4DIzmRVhJLkgKkwKCsdYJz_dxliXjcTpyG26tu1a5mBPtRF02mvbIB6TaglRGhv7l9I2TaxSdrjoLjWXWC5DKEKrjcfK9x0L0ObQWklir4D7GVpc34wXJoJUIbrqBi-tpgjL__J1l2mgz3Pjvf26ydccz4aoDxhZbMvU2699MzBwuwImBvkK20OLfYQpfIns10OVNttDU0KmFgHqZOYUOA8amawKODySvM5jUgLwcXqx4NRUETQXalaTqEsghDKzdTrvLnoa3j9d33PkvcC0jMeehQXaj49CkRUSnlZEqMLqHaRXrMpJeIYxCepiaQsWFj0TADzQuTlLll1Xsi6oSe2ylbmpzwEBpD3GAU6lIC5mYMhFlqIVUSF8wHCrRZ2eL1swR33RooWrTvLf5T3v22X7XJfm0E-LIg5iERr3g8A9fH7E1QV1t0wiPWa_C0W1O2Kr-mE_a2akFDj6z0cMXLGfMLQ |
| linkProvider | ProQuest |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Climate+impacts+on+global+agriculture+emerge+earlier+in+new+generation+of+climate+and+crop+models&rft.jtitle=Nature+food&rft.au=J%C3%A4germeyr%2C+Jonas&rft.au=M%C3%BCller%2C+Christoph&rft.au=Ruane%2C+Alex+C&rft.au=Elliott%2C+Joshua&rft.date=2021-11-01&rft.eissn=2662-1355&rft.volume=2&rft.issue=11&rft.spage=873&rft_id=info:doi/10.1038%2Fs43016-021-00400-y&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F37117503&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F37117503&rft.externalDocID=37117503 |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=2662-1355&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=2662-1355&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=2662-1355&client=summon |